2023 Early Look Top Prospects

[Paul in Virginia]

Never too early to think about NEXT year:

2023 MLB Draft - Top 100 Prospects — Prospects Live

Two more Vandy pitchers.  The write-up for their #10 prospect (Enrique Bradfield, CF) sure sounds enticing.

 

 

 

[DocJJ]

I think the O's will be picking in top 3 again, and may be in contention for #1 overall again....   Sadly....

[Frobby]

18 hours ago, DocJJ said:

I think the O's will be picking in top 3 again, and may be in contention for #1 overall again....   Sadly....

I hope not, though it’s possible.   

[DocJJ]

I don't really see how we can finish outside the bottom 3...   IF Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez get called up, AND perform at All-Star level, we still have the worst rotation in the game, a shaky at best bullpen without a proven closer, and an everyday lineup that's just o.k.   Plus, we play lots of games against the beasts of the AL East...   Even with Rutschman and Rodriguez I think we're a lock for the bottom 3....   sadly...

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

I don't really see how we can finish outside the bottom 3...   IF Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez get called up, AND perform at All-Star level, we still have the worst rotation in the game, a shaky at best bullpen without a proven closer, and an everyday lineup that's just o.k.   Plus, we play lots of games against the beasts of the AL East...   Even with Rutschman and Rodriguez I think we're a lock for the bottom 3....   sadly...

I wouldn't bet against it but saying it's a lock is going too far.     You can come up with scenarios (optimistic but possible) where this is a 70-75 win team.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, DocJJ said:

I don't really see how we can finish outside the bottom 3...   IF Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez get called up, AND perform at All-Star level, we still have the worst rotation in the game, a shaky at best bullpen without a proven closer, and an everyday lineup that's just o.k.   Plus, we play lots of games against the beasts of the AL East...   Even with Rutschman and Rodriguez I think we're a lock for the bottom 3....   sadly...

I think it partly depends on how bad the worst teams will be.   Here’s the win totals of three worst teams from 2015-21 (2020 excluded): 

2015: 63, 64, 67

2016: 59, 68, 68

2017: 64, 64, 66

2018: 47, 58, 62

2019: 47, 54, 57

2021: 52, 52, 60

As you can see, not all years are the same.   It wasn’t that long ago that a team won 68 games and still had the third worst record in baseball.   If we won 68 next year and still had the no. 3 pick, I’d say that was a combination of decent progress and a pretty juicy pick.  If we only won 57 or 60, I’d be pretty dissatisfied.   

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it partly depends on how bad the worst teams will be.   Here’s the win totals of three worst teams from 2015-21 (2020 excluded): 

2015: 63, 64, 67

2016: 59, 68, 68

2017: 64, 64, 66

2018: 47, 58, 62

2019: 47, 54, 57

2021: 52, 52, 60

As you can see, not all years are the same.   It wasn’t that long ago that a team won 68 games and still had the third worst record in baseball.   If we won 68 next year and still had the no. 3 pick, I’d say that was a combination of decent progress and a pretty juicy pick.  If we only won 57 or 60, I’d be pretty dissatisfied.    

Only one of the worst season from 2015-2017 would even get you the third pick from 2018-2021.

That does look to support the contention that teams are actively tanking.  Seeing the numbers right out there you can see why folks would find issue with it.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That does look to support the contention that teams are actively tanking.  Seeing the numbers right out there you can see why folks would find issue with it.

I think it’s undeniable that more teams are adopting this strategy.  Even when the Astros were losing all those games, the second and third worst teams were much more competitive than now.   

[DocJJ]

Tanking is a sound strategy.   The premium talent is at the top of the draft- usually in the top 5.   You can always unearth a gem in later rounds of the draft, but it's statistically unlikely.  It's just unfortunate for the fans of the teams that have to suffer through 100 loss seasons.

 

MLB has done nothing meaningful to level the playing field.  They refuse to have a salary cap resulting in escalating salaries making ticket prices unaffordable.  The "competitive balance draft picks" after the top 30-40 guys have come off the board are statistically unlikely to be high impact stars.  For years MLB has allowed the highest rated international talent to sign with the highest bidders (Yankees, L.A., etc...) until only recently when they put a limit on spending on international prospects.

 

Tanking is an effective strategy and one of the only viable avenues available right now for small market teams...

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

Tanking is a sound strategy.   The premium talent is at the top of the draft- usually in the top 5.   You can always unearth a gem in later rounds of the draft, but it's statistically unlikely.  It's just unfortunate for the fans of the teams that have to suffer through 100 loss seasons.

 

MLB has done nothing meaningful to level the playing field.  They refuse to have a salary cap resulting in escalating salaries making ticket prices unaffordable.  The "competitive balance draft picks" after the top 30-40 guys have come off the board are statistically unlikely to be high impact stars.  For years MLB has allowed the highest rated international talent to sign with the highest bidders (Yankees, L.A., etc...) until only recently when they put a limit on spending on international prospects.

 

Tanking is an effective strategy and one of the only viable avenues available right now for small market teams...

 

 

Small market teams like the Cubs, Astros and Phillies?

Or like Milwaukee, who didn't tank and managed to regain competitiveness?

[DocJJ]

On 1/22/2022 at 8:13 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Small market teams like the Cubs, Astros and Phillies?

Or like Milwaukee, who didn't tank and managed to regain competitiveness?

There are exceptions to the rule- St. Louis always seems to somehow be competitive.   Tampa Bay too....   They seem to be superior to most at scouting and identifying talent.  

 

Big Market teams can tank too!  You're right- the Cubs and Astros are large market teams that successfully tanked their way to Championships...!

[Frobby]

To me, tanking is a vague term.   If a 70-win team purposely tries to become a <55 win team, that’s different from a 47-win team remaining at the very bottom.

I honestly feel the O’s had little choice but to pursue the path they are on, once the 2018 team collapsed.   Teams that win 70ish games have options for how to get back to contention.

  
 

[Sports Guy]

On 1/22/2022 at 8:04 PM, DocJJ said:

Tanking is a sound strategy.   The premium talent is at the top of the draft- usually in the top 5.   You can always unearth a gem in later rounds of the draft, but it's statistically unlikely.  It's just unfortunate for the fans of the teams that have to suffer through 100 loss seasons.

 

MLB has done nothing meaningful to level the playing field.  They refuse to have a salary cap resulting in escalating salaries making ticket prices unaffordable.  The "competitive balance draft picks" after the top 30-40 guys have come off the board are statistically unlikely to be high impact stars.  For years MLB has allowed the highest rated international talent to sign with the highest bidders (Yankees, L.A., etc...) until only recently when they put a limit on spending on international prospects.

 

Tanking is an effective strategy and one of the only viable avenues available right now for small market teams...

 

 

This isn’t true at all and it certainly isn’t true for a sustained period of time worth of tanking.

[Sports Guy]

11 hours ago, DocJJ said:

There are exceptions to the rule- St. Louis always seems to somehow be competitive.   Tampa Bay too....   They seem to be superior to most at scouting and identifying talent.  

 

Big Market teams can tank too!  You're right- the Cubs and Astros are large market teams that successfully tanked their way to Championships...!

They didn’t need to tank for 4+ years to win a title.

[DocJJ]

On 1/25/2022 at 10:38 AM, Sports Guy said:

They didn’t need to tank for 4+ years to win a title.

Houston tanked from 2009 to 2014.  That's 5 years.

Cubs tanked from 2010-2014.  That's 4 years.

 

WAR by draft position (2000-2010 data):

1-5= 13

6-10= 9.5

11-15= 8.7

16-20= 4.9

21-25= 6.5

26-30= 4.5s

 

To get the elite players to help your club, it sure helps to be picking in the top 5.   A few seasons of top 5 picks can turn a team around.