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BA: Os have 5 top 100 prospects


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  • Jimmy (Anchorage, AK): What pitchers on this list have the ultimate ceiling of a front of the rotation potential?


Kyle Glaser: Grayson Rodriguez, Shane Baz and George Kirby are the three that have a chance. Odds are only one of them will reach that ceiling, with a very real chance none do. There are very, very few legitimate No. 1 starters in the major leagues. The combination of stuff, control, durability and consistency required is incredibly hard to find, and even when a pitcher has it, it's difficult to maintain year after year. If you had to bet on one of them doing it, Rodriguez would be the guy.

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  • James (North East, MD): How close was Jordan Westburg making this list? I think him and Gunnar Henderson are very comparable as prospects.


J.J. Cooper: He wasn't in the "just missed" group but he wasn't too far off the list. Personally I like Henderson's glove better than Westburg and think he's a better baserunner. He has more power than Westburg and he was at the same levels as Westburg but he was two years younger.

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  • Parlay (Severna Park, MD): Were there any Orioles (like Coby Mayo or Jordan Westburg) who came close to making the list?


J.J. Cooper: I mispoke earlier now that I've checked our ballots. While Westburg wasn't a guy we talked about as far as making the top 100 (among the last names we discussed) he did rank 107th overall in our balloting. So he was close. If Geoff Pontes has his way Mayo would be on the 100 right now.

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45 minutes ago, Absltgreek said:
  • Jeff (Atlanta): How is Coby Mayo not in this top 100? You have 2020 Zac Veen , amd Mayos # are much better, am I missing something other then Veen was 1st rounder ? Not hating on Veen but stating facts


Kyle Glaser: Veen played a full season at Low-A. Mayo played in the complex leagues and 27 games of Low-A at the end of the season. The level of competition they faced is hugely different, and frankly not comparable.

Glaser makes a great point, and that's why I rank Gunnar Henderson ahead of Mayo (they are my #3 and #4 O's prospects). Henderson faced the two most difficult jumps in the minors - low A to high A, and high A to AA - in the same season. And he overcame slow starts after both of those jumps. Mayo didn't face difficult competition at any point during his season. His numbers were awesome and he flashed plus power along with great advanced metrics, but Mayo is going to face significantly tougher pitching in 2022. Interested to see how he fares.

Henderson also projects to potentially play a premium position - SS - along with 3B. Mayo projects as a 3B and perhaps corner OF, even though he's athletic and has good speed for his size. I prefer Gunnar slightly, but as I've said multiple times on this board, very excited to have both.

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19 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

Glaser makes a great point, and that's why I rank Gunnar Henderson ahead of Mayo (they are my #3 and #4 O's prospects). Henderson faced the two most difficult jumps in the minors - low A to high A, and high A to AA - in the same season. And he overcame slow starts after both of those jumps. Mayo didn't face difficult competition at any point during his season. His numbers were awesome and he flashed plus power along with great advanced metrics, but Mayo is going to face significantly tougher pitching in 2022. Interested to see how he fares.

Henderson also projects to potentially play a premium position - SS - along with 3B. Mayo projects as a 3B and perhaps corner OF, even though he's athletic and has good speed for his size. I prefer Gunnar slightly, but as I've said multiple times on this board, very excited to have both.

Did he really overcome the jump to AA?  He was there for all of five games (regular season) and posted a .561 OPS.  I’d say he barely dipped his toe in the water.   We won’t really know how he handles that level until this upcoming season.  

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1 hour ago, Absltgreek said:
  • James (North East, MD): How close was Jordan Westburg making this list? I think him and Gunnar Henderson are very comparable as prospects.


J.J. Cooper: He wasn't in the "just missed" group but he wasn't too far off the list. Personally I like Henderson's glove better than Westburg and think he's a better baserunner. He has more power than Westburg and he was at the same levels as Westburg but he was two years younger.

Interesting that Cooper likes Henderson’s glove better.   

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13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Did he really overcome the jump to AA?  He was there for all of five games (regular season) and posted a .561 OPS.  I’d say he barely dipped his toe in the water.   We won’t really know how he handles that level until this upcoming season.  

He played in the postseason as well. Also a super small sample size, but he made the jump.

So let's dismiss the jump to double A. Gunnar still made a major jump from low A to high A. Mayo wasn't challenged at all. That was by design because the organization wanted to take things slowly, but the quality of the pitching Mayo faced needs to be taken into account. Henderson's season was more impressive to me.

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3 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

He played in the postseason as well. Also a super small sample size, but he made the jump.

So let's dismiss the jump to double A. Gunnar still made a major jump from low A to high A. Mayo wasn't challenged at all. That was by design because the organization wanted to take things slowly, but the quality of the pitching Mayo faced needs to be taken into account. Henderson's season was more impressive to me.

I’m fine with arguing that Henderson’s season was more impressive.   But in looking at Mayo’s season you have to remember he missed most of spring training with an injury.   He didn’t start the season with a full-season squad because he couldn’t.   In the circumstances, the O’s did the right this juti to start him in the FCL

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The last time the O's had 5 prospects in Baseball America's top 100 was 2008.   

 

It ended badly....

 

At the time, we were pinning our hopes on: Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman, Troy Patton, Rhadammes Liz, and Nolan Reimold.

Let's all pray to the baseball gods the current group of 5 fares much better...!

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16 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

The last time the O's had 5 prospects in Baseball America's top 100 was 2008.   

 

It ended badly....

 

At the time, we were pinning our hopes on: Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman, Troy Patton, Rhadammes Liz, and Nolan Reimold.

Let's all pray to the baseball gods the current group of 5 fares much better...!

Badly?

Three of those guys helped the O's make the playoffs.

Two of them made All Star games.

I'm guessing that's probably a pretty typical return.

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6 hours ago, Absltgreek said:
  • Parlay (Severna Park, MD): Were there any Orioles (like Coby Mayo or Jordan Westburg) who came close to making the list?


J.J. Cooper: I mispoke earlier now that I've checked our ballots. While Westburg wasn't a guy we talked about as far as making the top 100 (among the last names we discussed) he did rank 107th overall in our balloting. So he was close. If Geoff Pontes has his way Mayo would be on the 100 right now.

These are great.  Thanks for posting.

Mayo being a top 100 guy right now definitely has to be discussed but I think it’s fair to say you want to see more.  If he continues what he did last year, he will be top 80 by midseason.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m fine with arguing that Henderson’s season was more impressive.   But in looking at Mayo’s season you have to remember he missed most of spring training with an injury.   He didn’t start the season with a full-season squad because he couldn’t.   In the circumstances, the O’s did the right this juti to start him in the FCL

I never said anything about why he started late, or that the O's didn't handle him well (they did, all I said is that they took things slowly). My point is that Mayo didn't face tough competition. That's not his fault or the O's fault, but we have to take the level of competition into account when evaluating his performance.

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