New CBA proposal on draft lottery

[HowAboutThat]

It is so stupid as to be surprising that it was even mentioned.

Changing the draft method is fine, but adding an element of chance is not. During the season, teams have goals, and draft picks should be awarded according to how well those goals are met. Adding a lottery pick is beyond stupid. Anyone who thinks it’s fine has curious logic.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'm sorry, but there was NO WAY forward- "rebuilding" or not- that sees the Orioles NOT losing a ton of games moving forward from Elias' hire.

The decisions which made that INESCAPABLE had been made before he arrived.

You could argue that "rebuilding" could have been quicker, etc.  You can't argue that losing wasn't inevitable- not in good faith.

 

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Again this isn’t true.  And even if it was true, it’s not a true statement relating to 2022. (I would argue 2021 as well but that’s a bit tougher because of 2020 COVID bs)

First of all, I agree with Pickles that Elias was presented with something of a fait accompli — a 47-win team that already had traded most of its best players, had no international program,  had a mediocre farm system and needed a lot of restructuring.   The team was bound to be bad for several years given the condition it was in.

Saying that, I won’t say Elias’ strategy today (forget two years ago) is the only option available.   He definitely could be making bigger moves to try to improve the current team both short term and long term.   Just look at Texas, which won only 60 games last year but has made major moves this winter that may not pay off immediately.   

Now, whether the correct strategy is the Elias strategy, the Texas strategy, or something in between is debatable.   As I said above, it may be that Elias’ strategy is the best one given the circumstances.   But it’s not the only option available.   
 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

 

First of all, I agree with Pickles that Elias was presented with something of a fait accompli — a 47-win team that already had traded most of its best players, had no international program,  had a mediocre farm system and needed a lot of restructuring.   The team was bound to be bad for several years given the condition it was in.

Saying that, I won’t say Elias’ strategy today (forget two years ago) is the only option available.   He definitely could be making bigger moves to try to improve the current team both short term and long term.   Just look at Texas, which won only 60 games last year but has made major moves this winter that may not pay off immediately.   

Now, whether the correct strategy is the Elias strategy, the Texas strategy, or something in between is debatable.   As I said above, it may be that Elias’ strategy is the best one given the circumstances.   But it’s not the only option available.   
 

Btw, I don’t think Texas’ strategy is correct either.  In fact, I think Elias’ strategy is better than theirs.  

[Moose Milligan]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

For me, everything they are doing at ever level of the organization besides the ML team has been great.  It’s the same stuff many of us has asked been asking for over 20 years.  
 

But what isn’t being done at the ML level is horrible and the fact that people are ok with it and think that this organization is just going to flip some kind of a switch at a moments notice is laughable.

 

I agree with the first statement, and quite frankly that's all I really wanted Elias to do....set up the organization properly, especially with a focus on the South American market.  Get into the 21st century with analytics.  

I also agree that what's not being done at the ML level sucks but I think that's what you get for hiring a guy who's wheelhouse is doing exactly what he's done, which is scouting and drafting.  He wasn't advertised as a guy who'd swing amazing trades and sign great free agents, which is fantastic for the ownership because they typically don't want to spend a lot.

The Orioles have had a decent payroll before, they have also been cheapskates.  I am not sure why they can't consistently pay higher than what they do.  

I'm 50/50 as to whether or not the organization will spend in the future, I guess we'll find out.  I can see why people think they would, I can also see why people will think they'll never spend a lot.  

It's weird though, I still log on here and I still watch the games.  Maybe because it's the middle of the winter but I find myself not getting as worked up as I used to.  It's a level of ambivalence that I'm not familiar with.  Of course this is subject to change but in this moment right now, quite frankly I don't care if they spend or not.  This season, much like the previous seasons, is about the young talent we've got and how they can take a step forward to help this team compete.  

[HowAboutThat]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Again this isn’t true.  And even if it was true, it’s not a true statement relating to 2022. (I would argue 2021 as well but that’s a bit tougher because of 2020 COVID bs)

Of course it was true. You’re not really complaining about the process of improving the organization. You even said that your only problem was with the quality of the onfield product. You are unhappy that Elias is not taking steps to improve the big team yet.

I have often said that I agree with you that the team can be meaningfully better this season without wasting any money on stupid free agent contracts, And I’ve also Complained that Mike has not indicated what he’s going to do this season regarding the big team.

I don’t think he’s going to continue to make questionable moves regarding calling guys up and sending them down and calling them back up and sending them back down, I think he’s going to give our high prospects a meaningful stint in the big leagues and see how things go.

But it is completely obvious that building up the infrastructure required tearing things down, and that a couple of years of terrible teams it was absolutely unavoidable.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

 

But it is completely obvious that building up the infrastructure required tearing things down, and that a couple of years of terrible teams it was absolutely unavoidable.

This is false.  It was already torn down when Elias got here.  Dan Duquette was the one that made the 2018 trades (Machado, etc).  

Elias walked into practically nothing.  The fact that Elias was the one that had to "tear things down" isn't accurate.  

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

This is false.  It was already torn down when Elias got here.  Dan Duquette was the one that made the 2018 trades (Machado, etc).  

Elias walked into practically nothing.  The fact that Elias was the one that had to "tear things down" isn't accurate.  

Duquette really didn't tear anything down either. He traded Manny when his contract was about to expire and that's about it. Elias did trade Bundy, Givens, Castro, Bleier, and Villar, all of whom he could have kept around to eke out a few more wins. Under Duquette the O's still had $137M payroll. 

[HowAboutThat]

58 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

This is false.  It was already torn down when Elias got here.  Dan Duquette was the one that made the 2018 trades (Machado, etc).  

Elias walked into practically nothing.  The fact that Elias was the one that had to "tear things down" isn't accurate.  

That’s partially true, but it depends on how you look at it. Dan allowed things to get terrible, but there was no organization or plan, it was just terrible leader ship. Mike was systematic and very organized and very structured. It’s like the difference between a house that falls down by itself and one that is carefully disassembled, and one that is merely bulldozed. Under Dan the house was about to fall down. Mike just finished the job and has since been rebuilding.

[wildcard]

Dan started the tear down at ownerships direction.  Mike finished the tear down.

Tampa has shown the way to make spending big irrelevant.   Build a very good farm system and development organization.  Work the international market.   Be opportunistic with trades.   Don't allow top talent to walk in to free agency and get noting in return.   

I think the O's are following that model.    That doesn't mean Tampa did not spend 8m on Kluber or 2/30 on Morton.  The O's could add a couple of short term veterans to the O's 2022 team before opening day.  I fully expect the Margot and Wisler to get traded between now and August 1st because they are FA at the end of the season.  That may be true for Mancini if the O's can get value for him.

The topic is the draft lottery.  The way things are going I would not be surprised if the lottery is implemented in 2022.  The O's could lose the #1 pick and end up with something between 1 and 8.  But they will pick first in each round  after that and probably have a competitive balance pick as well.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The topic is the draft lottery.  The way things are going I would not be surprised if the lottery is implemented in 2022.  

Personally, I would be astounded if they did that.   If the idea of the lottery is to disincentive tanking, it’s too late to do that for the 2021 season.  I would be very surprised to see any changes in the draft structure implemented before the 2022 draft is completed.  

[OriolesMagic83]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Dan started the tear down at ownerships direction.  Mike finished the tear down.

Tampa has shown the way to make spending big irrelevant.   Build a very good farm system and development organization.  Work the international market.   Be opportunistic with trades.   Don't allow top talent to walk in to free agency and get noting in return.   

I think the O's are following that model.    That doesn't mean Tampa will not spend 8m on Kluber or 2/30 on Morton.  The O's could add a couple of short term veterans to the O's 2022 team before opening day.

The topic is the draft lottery.  The way things are going I would not be surprised if the lottery is implemented in 2022.  The O's could lose the #1 pick and end of with something between 1 and 8.  But the will pick first in each round  after that and probably have a competitive balance pick as well.

I am fine with a first round lottery pick in baseball.  It needs to be done similar to the NBA.  In the NBA the chance of getting the #1 pick increases with a worse record.  Also, the worst team in the NBA gets at least the #4 pick.  I don't think baseball teams are just tanking for #1 picks, as there is no Lebron or MJ in baseball.  1 player can't turn around an organization.  Revenue sharing obviously needs to compete.  Every baseball team should have enough revenue to support a $100 million payroll.  Markets that can't support $100 payroll need to be moved- Ahem Tampa Bay. 

It would be nice if the lottery pick could not be implemented until 2023, as an unbiased O's fan. 

 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Personally, I would be astounded if they did that.   If the idea of the lottery is to disincentive tanking, it’s too late to do that for the 2021 season.  I would be very surprised to see any changes in the draft structure implemented before the 2022 draft is completed.  

The 2022 draft order was determined with the framework of the old CBa and the rules at that point.

They aren’t going to change that.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Personally, I would be astounded if they did that.   If the idea of the lottery is to disincentive tanking, it’s too late to do that for the 2021 season.  I would be very surprised to see any changes in the draft structure implemented before the 2022 draft is completed.  

The discussion I have read is to not have a team draft in the top 5 two years in a row.  2022 would be the fourth year the O's have drafted in the top 5.   That could be a reason the lottery begins in 2022. Plus the commish hates the Angelos for the lawsuit.  He will stick to them if he can.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

The 2022 draft order was determined with the framework of the old CBa and the rules at that point.

They aren’t going to change that.

The old CBA will be long gone by the time the 2022 draft happens in July.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The old CBA will be long gone by the time the 2022 draft happens in July.

That’s irrelevant