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Nats Soto rejects massive extension offer


jabba72

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Danny Abriano
Wed, February 16, 2022, 2:46 PM
 
 
Juan Soto trots around bases
 
Juan Soto trots around bases

Juan Soto turned down a 13-year, $350 million extension offer from the Washington Nationals before the MLB lockout, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN -- in a story where Soto confirms he received the offer.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/juan-soto-rejects-massive-extension-194645715.html

I dont know how wise this is. Soto has no idea what kind of player he'll be in 3 or 4 years. 

 

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1 hour ago, jabba72 said:

 

Danny Abriano
Wed, February 16, 2022, 2:46 PM
 
 
Juan Soto trots around bases
 
Juan Soto trots around bases

Juan Soto turned down a 13-year, $350 million extension offer from the Washington Nationals before the MLB lockout, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN -- in a story where Soto confirms he received the offer.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/juan-soto-rejects-massive-extension-194645715.html

I dont know how wise this is. Soto has no idea what kind of player he'll be in 3 or 4 years. 

 

I've known folks to take a pay cut to avoid working at Walgreens.

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I'm sure when Boras got him front-row seats at Dodger Stadium for the playoffs last fall, it was purely so Soto could cheer for beloved teammates Max and Trea, and nothing about reminding the Dodgers or all of MLB who his agent was and how he schooled late Kershaw, peak Cole, etc while carrying his team to a ring.

For Boras this is going to be 2000 A-Rod a quarter century later.

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3 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

$27 million AAV is a borderline insulting offer for arguably the best overall hitter in MLB who also isn't even 25 years old yet and is only 3 years away from free agency. 

That's not really accurate.  The next 3 arb years are going to cost substantially less.  He probably makes somewhere in the 28-35M range TOTAL in the next 3 years.  So really, its a 10 year extension worth around 315-325M.  

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

That's not really accurate.  The next 3 arb years are going to cost substantially less.  He probably makes somewhere in the 28-35M range TOTAL in the next 3 years.  So really, its a 10 year extension worth around 315-325M.  

That is a fair point, but your numbers are a bit off. Assuming he continues to produce at roughly the same rate over the next 3 years as his first 3+ years, he's easily going to make over $50 million. He made $8 million last year as a Super-2 and is estimated for around $16 million this year, and will handily exceed $20 million in each of his final 2 arb years. Hell, he could sniff $30 million in 2024. 

If he took the Nats' offer, he'd have been selling 10 free agent years at well under $30 million apiece, which he would have been foolish to do considering the AAVs Betts, Lindor, Seager, etc. have gotten in the last couple years.

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7 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

That is a fair point, but your numbers are a bit off. Assuming he continues to produce at roughly the same rate over the next 3 years as his first 3+ years, he's easily going to make over $50 million. He made $8 million last year as a Super-2 and is estimated for around $16 million this year, and will handily exceed $20 million in each of his final 2 arb years. Hell, he could sniff $30 million in 2024. 

If he took the Nats' offer, he'd have been selling 10 free agent years at well under $30 million apiece, which he would have been foolish to do considering the AAVs Betts, Lindor, Seager, etc. have gotten in the last couple years.

Oh ok..didn’t realize he was a super 2 last year.  Agreed the numbers are off then.

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5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Oh ok..didn’t realize he was a super 2 last year.  Agreed the numbers are off then.

Yeah, that's almost certainly why he was comfortable taking the gamble of turning down a $350 million guarantee in search of something bigger later- between last year and this year, he will already have banked almost $25 in arbitration salaries. 

They should have put this offer or something very similar in front of him before settling on his 2021 salary last offseason tbh.

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45 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

That is a fair point, but your numbers are a bit off. Assuming he continues to produce at roughly the same rate over the next 3 years as his first 3+ years, he's easily going to make over $50 million. He made $8 million last year as a Super-2 and is estimated for around $16 million this year, and will handily exceed $20 million in each of his final 2 arb years. Hell, he could sniff $30 million in 2024. 

If he took the Nats' offer, he'd have been selling 10 free agent years at well under $30 million apiece, which he would have been foolish to do considering the AAVs Betts, Lindor, Seager, etc. have gotten in the last couple years.

Ben Clemens wrote some recent articles in which he calculated Arb salaries as a function of fWAR.  Soto was worth 6.6 fWAR last year.  At the rates calculated by Clemens, if his performance stayed steady, Soto would make something like $12.8 mm, 18.1 mm and $27.7 mm the next 3 years.   

Obviously he will earn more than $350 mm if his performance stays steady and he remains healthy between now and free agency.   But, there has to be some discount when the team is taking the risk that he has some serious injury or decline in performance before reaching FA.

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