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What’s Your 2022 OPS Projection for Ryan McKenna?


Frobby

What’s your 2022 OPS Projection for Ryan McKenna?  

26 members have voted

  1. 1. What’s your 2022 OPS Projection for Ryan McKenna?

    • .740 or higher
      0
    • .700 - .739
    • .660 - .699
    • .620 - .659
    • .580 - 619
    • Under .580

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  • Poll closed on 02/28/22 at 22:17

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It was a tale of two seasons for Ryan McKenna in 2021.   As a major leaguer, he posted a pathetic .559 OPS in 197 PA.   In AAA, he had a spectacular 1.106 OPS in 123 PA.   Due to various injuries to Hays, Santander and others, he was up and down multiple times throughout the year, and often got only sporadic at bats when on the Orioles.   

As a minor leaguer, he’s also been all over the map, posting under .700 sometimes (including 2018-19 in AA) and over 1.000 at other times (2018 in Hi A).   Overall he comes out at .758 as a minor leaguer.  He’s been young for his league at various stages, but not so much at this point.   

So, where does McKenna land in 2022 on the OPS-meter?

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Another sub 700 guy.  Could see a wide range there.  Went with low to mid 600s as an average-ish outcome.

I think when he is a part time player his offense will be low.  But he is the back up for Hays in left and to some degree Santander in right. Mullins probably plays most everyday.   If McKenna gets regular playing time he could  be in the the low 700s.  Overall I expect he will be in the mid to high 600s.   I also expect his playing time will be reduced when Stowers becomes a major leaguer.

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I think when he is a part time player his offense will be low.  But he is the back up for Hays in left and to some degree Santander in right. Mullins probably plays most everyday.   If McKenna gets regular playing time he could  be in the the low 700s.  Overall I expect he will be in the mid to high 600s.   I also expect his playing time will be reduced when Stowers becomes a major leaguer.

Or his weaknesses will be even more exposed and he’ll produce well below that level.  I don’t understand the thought process that bad hitters will get better if given more at bats.  McKenna’s a fourth or fifth outfielder on a bad team.

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2 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Or his weaknesses will be even more exposed and he’ll produce well below that level.  I don’t understand the thought process that bad hitters will get better if given more at bats.  McKenna’s a fourth or fifth outfielder on a bad team.

I think you are making assumptions that has not been proven yet.

  McKenna hit for a 1.106 OPS at AAA in 101 at bats after hitting for a 686 OPS in 2019.    He also hit for a 1.023 in  OPS in  2018 at A+ ball as well as a 1.064 in 61 at bats in the AZ winter league.    Did he make an adjustment at AAA or was it just a hot streak?  We don't know for sure.  But in all those at bats he was a starter playing regularly.

McKenna was a backup in 2021 for the O's.   He didn't play regularly and he did not hit well.   I will give him the benefit of the doubt at this point that if he got regular play time he would hit better.    He did get 61 at bats in September and didn't hit well in that month.   

Hopefully Fuller can get him to lay off the high strike or ball which he can not catch up to.     

For now I just think the jury is still out on McKenna's ability to hit in the majors after 169 at bats.  Fuller's approach is only swing at what you can hit hard.   Apparently in McKenna's case that is not the high pitch.

 

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2 hours ago, wildcard said:

For now I just think the jury is still out on McKenna's ability to hit in the majors after 169 at bats.  Fuller's approach is only swing at what you can hit hard.   Apparently in McKenna's case that is not the high pitch.

I have very little doubt that he can do a lot better than .559 OPS.   What I don’t know is whether he can top .675 or so.   

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Every time McKenna has played well it was in large part due to a .300+ batting average.  In 2021 he struck out 38% of the time, which precludes having even a halfway decent batting average.  He had a BABIP about the same as Vlad Jr, or CJ Cron or Kris Bryant or Ronald Acuna.  But since he struck out so much, and doesn't really have much power (.138 minor league ISO) he's not in their universe as a hitter.

So, if he can somehow reduce his strikeout rate to, I don't know, 25% or something maybe he has a chance.  I'm not very optimistic about a hitter in 2022 who has to hit .300 to be good.

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13 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Every time McKenna has played well it was in large part due to a .300+ batting average.  In 2021 he struck out 38% of the time, which precludes having even a halfway decent batting average.  He had a BABIP about the same as Vlad Jr, or CJ Cron or Kris Bryant or Ronald Acuna.  But since he struck out so much, and doesn't really have much power (.138 minor league ISO) he's not in their universe as a hitter.

So, if he can somehow reduce his strikeout rate to, I don't know, 25% or something maybe he has a chance.  I'm not very optimistic about a hitter in 2022 who has to hit .300 to be good.

I think in the .680 - .700 range he becomes valuable due to his defense and baserunning.   Not sure if he can get there, but I hope so.

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On 2/19/2022 at 11:13 AM, waroriole said:

Can’t catch up to average fastballs. Unless he develops bat speed he’ll be the same player he was last year. 

Bingo. I like McKenna, but unless he can catch up to premium velocity he’s probably looking like a .650 - .699 type player with above average defense. 
 

A prime Craig Gentry(2011-2014) could be an optimal outcome for him, but Gentry was a darn good base stealer and put up some 2.0 WAR seasons. McKenna has more power but would have to cut down on the Ks and put up a better OBP. 

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