O's Ink Izturis

[Lucky Jim]

If the O's now go after Hu… after signing Izturis, then they wasted resources (financial) on obtaining Izturis…

If the O's wound up in a position where they lost out on Izturis, because they were waiting on Furcal… so what?

Izturis is only slightly more tolerable than Juan Castro…

You definitively know that Izturis is not a long-term option… as such, there is no rush to sign him today…

He is a last-resort type of guy… not a target.

There's literally nothing - nothing - that suggests Hu is ready to step into a starting role right now. Disagree? What ws it that convinced you: his OPS+ of 29 (yes, 29!) in 65 games last year at the ML level or his OPS of .708 in the PCL (yes, the hitters' paradise)?

If you go after Hu, you still end up needing to purchase insurance, if not another starter.

Further, you're denigrating Izturis w/o any real support. Baltimoron identified the argument FOR Izturis yesterday, and I haven't seen a proper, substantial rebuttal to it yet:

Maybe he shouldn't get it, but he is probably worth nearly 3 times that. Looks like the market might undervalue defense.

Maybe Andy shops at Target and WalMart too!!

---

Free agent "wins above replacement" are worth just under 5 million or so this offseason, like 4.8ish. link

---

Cesar Izturis is bad with the bat - look at wRAA at Fangraphs- its a linear weights calculation of runs above average based on Tango's wOBA. Izturis is -13, -16 and 14 the last three years in less than fulltime play. Although he hit much better last year, which may be in part why he played a lot more than the prior two seasons.

The AL is regarded as having tougher pitchers, so for ease lets call Izturis -20 over a full season with the bat.

--

Amongst qualifying SS (like 960 innings), UZR at Fangraphs had him +12.5/150 games, 3rd in baseball. UZR had him at +10 runs over 1000 innings. Izturis had a similar season defensively in 2004 (+12), was just a little below average in 05 with his playing time cut a bit, then had sporadic play over the next two years before playing real well in 08.

PMR has Izturis +8.9 runs, 9th overall and 4th amongst SS on the field for 2,000 or more balls in play.

The Fielding Bible had Izturis tied for 3rd amongst 2008 SS, at +19 (~11-13 runs).

Izturis is going to be 29, he shouldn't be falling off a defensive cliff. Playing 250 or so more innings than the 1000 he played in 2008 would be pretty much full-time, so does that cause a big fall off?

Lets call him +10 in the field.

---

Tango's postional replacement levels value a SS at +.75 wins (7.5 runs).

--

Replacement level is -25 in AL, -20 in NL. link

---

So if Izturis plays like he did in 08 over a full year, let say he is -20 with the bat, about + 10 with the glove, and gets a 7.5 positional bump, which is -2.5 runs total.

Using -25 runs as replacement level, he is + 22.5 runs, or +2.25 WAR (wins above replacement).

Lets be conservative and knock a half a win off for the league change and greater demands of fulltime play, and he is 1.75 WAR

If a win is worth just under 5 million on the market, then Izturis is worth @ 8.5 million a year as a 1.75 WAR player.

----

Here is a similar process valuing Izturis at 2 WAR for 2008

The fact is - though there's no guarantee it works out - this was a smart and savvy move by the Orioles, getting a player who should provide wins above his salary for next year, while not financially hamstringing us in our search for a long-term replacement.

We haven't wasted anything. In fact, this was the prudent move to make, all things considered, allowing us to continue our pursuit of a long-term replacement without being held over the fire by other teams who think they can hold us over the fire...

[PeterWyshner]

You know, they were saying on XM radio this morning that the Rays of 2008 (World Series) scored LESS runs than the Rays of 2007 (Last Place). It is all about pitching and defense. Pitching and defense.

Say what you will, I like this pick-up at this time. Good move.

[Mackus]

Has it been confirmed that it is the 2/$6M contract that was rumored?

[Boca Bird]

Well its better than Bynum and L. Hernandez

Crabs is better than syhphilis but you still have an STD.

[Saintbird]

You know, they were saying on XM radio this morning that the Rays of 2008 (World Series) scored LESS runs than the Rays of 2007 (Last Place). It is all about pitching and defense. Pitching and defense.

Say what you will, I like this pick-up at this time. Good move.

Hmm... excellent point, nice job.

[HeatherC12]

I could substitute Cesar's name for Ramon's and the SS trio of terror (or quartet, I lost count!) the O's had last year for the black hole of suck that was the Reds catching last year and this entire thread could be about how Reds fans feel to have a catcher who can actually hit above the Mendoza line and be even halfway decent for a while, LOL :laughlol:

Good job O's and I'm glad they finally have a SS who will improve that position for them for a while!

[Sports Guy]

As I said before, unless his defense declines this year, Izturis will end up being worth his contract.

Tom Tango said GG defense + a 610 OPS= a league average SS...So, Izturis should be better than league average and of all the FA options, he seemed to be the best one when you consider contract, et al...

Now, all of that being said, i think Chris is right..Now, perhaps the Orioles explored all the options and the price tag was too high...Of course, maybe they didn't..Maybe they wanted Izturis and made him a target from day one.

Who knows...Ultimately, I don't think we will regret this deal but i do think we should have gotten a better long term option...at least they didn't get Furcal, Renteria or OCab.

[McNulty]

Izturis has 3165 Major League Career at-bats… a 630 career OPS, and is turning 29.

I fully admit that he is better then anything we had last year, and worst comes to worst… not a signing I would kill them for in January…. Signing him today, to me is hard to defend.

The O's needed to see if Furcal resigned with LA, making Hu available….

Even if Hu never progresses with the bat, he is exactly 4 years younger than Izturis... can provide you the same exceptional defense... And at least potentially can be a long-term option.

Lucky Jim questioned yesterday why signing Izturis, would preclude the team from attempting to trade for Hu, or any other younger option… theoretically it does not, but I have a hard time seeing this organization making a 2year financial investment in Izturis, and making an effort to obtain a younger option.

Also, Hu is at a minimum an equal option for 2009 in my mind, and a better option long-term….

You guys and your flippin Hu obsession. Have you even seen him play? I would hope so with the way some people gush about him around here.

He might eventually become a marginally better hitter than Izturis. Might. You know how I know? I've seen him, with my own eyeballs, over a dozen times. He's above average with the glove. Very smooth and has a decent enough arm. He's pretty quick and can bunt. He has little to no power. And he's reportedly got blurred vision problems that are recurrent.

Minus the vision problems, that player sounds a lot like Izturis in 5 years. The only thing he does better than Izturis is make a little better contact. That's it.

[ledzepp8]

Mike, I understand what they did…. They found a more consistent everyday option… an upgrade over what they trotted out to SS last year… that did not cost them that much…

Again, if you have exhausted all options to find anyone that has the potential to be a long-term option… and you come-back to Izturis… that is fine.

I believe that signing him now for 2 years, when you have not done that is poor.

I go back to the word 'definitively'… You definitively know that Izturis is not a long-term option… as such, I believe he should never have been a priority.

How do you possibly know that AM didn't "exhaust all options to find anyone that has the potential to be a long-term option"? You have no idea, yet choose to condemn him and the Izturis signing anyhow.

[Trinidad]

Signing Izturis does not preclude us from going after a long-term solution for SS such as Hu or whoever. The fact of the matter was, we did not have a ML ready SS of any kind on our roster Anywhere!!!!!! Now we do, and we are no longer as desperate to acquire one as we were two days ago.

If there is one thing we have learned from MacPhail thus far, he does not like dealing from a position of weakness. He makes sure that's what the other GM's are doing!!(i.e. Bedard)

[Trinidad]

Crabs is better than syhphilis but you still have an STD.

WOW!! That's Funny!!

Rep to You!!!

[McNulty]

There's literally nothing - nothing - that suggests Hu is ready to step into a starting role right now. Disagree? What ws it that convinced you: his OPS+ of 29 (yes, 29!) in 65 games last year at the ML level or his OPS of .708 in the PCL (yes, the hitters' paradise)?

If you go after Hu, you still end up needing to purchase insurance, if not another starter.

Further, you're denigrating Izturis w/o any real support. Baltimoron identified the argument FOR Izturis yesterday, and I haven't seen a proper, substantial rebuttal to it yet:

The fact is - though there's no guarantee it works out - this was a smart and savvy move by the Orioles, getting a player who should provide wins above his salary for next year, while not financially hamstringing us in our search for a long-term replacement.

We haven't wasted anything. In fact, this was the prudent move to make, all things considered, allowing us to continue our pursuit of a long-term replacement without being held over the fire by other teams who think they can hold us over the fire...

I completely agree with this post. His PCL numbers are quite worrisome, along with his steady decline in OBP as he's moved up in levels.

I'm not an Izturis fan, but the signing certainly isn't a bad one by the numbers.

[MemphisOsFan]

Is this trade official yet or close to being official?

I have just read this (on RotoWorld referencing http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb/6156456.html) ...

Astros might make a late run at Izturis

The Orioles are believed to have a two-year, $6 million deal worked out with Izturis, but nothing has been signed. If the Astros choose to offer a bit more money and an additional year, they could potentially break up that agreement. December 10 - 10:24 a.m. ET

Source: Houston Chronicle

[Sports Guy]

I have never seen Hu play… you have me beat… congrats.

Did you know that Hu has a 764 career OPS in 2200 Minor League at-bats?

Did you know that Izturis has a 630 career OPS in 3165 Major League at-bats, and had a 630 OPS in 2000 Minor League at-bats?

Did you know that Hu is exactly 4 years younger than Izturis?

You nailed it on the head… when you used the word 'might'…. That word is still in Hu's vocablulary… he still has the potential to be something….

You already 'know' what Izturis is…. You understand that there is a discernable difference between the two right?

Yea..Hu has always shown a better ability with the bat.

Plus, Hu's eye issue last year may have hurt his OPS greatly.

People continue to use these small sample sizes as reasons to not go after pie and Hu...Good thing people didn't do the same for Markakis.

Hu's upside is probably Izturis plus 50-100 points of OPS.

[ledzepp8]

Is this trade official yet or close to being official?

I have just read this (on RotoWorld referencing http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bb/6156456.html) ...

Astros might make a late run at Izturis

The Orioles are believed to have a two-year, $6 million deal worked out with Izturis, but nothing has been signed. If the Astros choose to offer a bit more money and an additional year, they could potentially break up that agreement. December 10 - 10:24 a.m. ET

Source: Houston Chronicle

I'm not sure how that works. It's been agreed on pending a physical. Can he back out?