What’s your 2022 OPS projection for Shed Long?

[Frobby]

OK, this is as far as I’m going.   Shed Long isn’t on the 40-man roster but some think he’s likely to be better than Jahmai Jones, so I’ll put him out there.   

Long has a .218/.284/.376 line in 437 PA in the big leagues.   As a minor leaguer, he’s hit .273/.352/.439 in 2491 PA.   He’s been hampered with leg injuries the last two years and is expected to still be in rehab when the MiL season begins.    So, what’s your prognosis for Long?

That’s the end of the line.  I refuse to put up polls for Richie Martin, Yusniel Diaz or Rylan Bannon, even though there’s a reasonable chance that one of them will get called up and get more playing time than Jones or Long.  

 

[Aristotelian]

,690 was the number that came to mind but .690-.719 feels wildly optimistic. Of course that was probably your intent in setting up the options.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

,690 was the number that came to mind but .690-.719 feels wildly optimistic. Of course that was probably your intent in setting up the options.  

It’s been tricky to decide what midpoint and variance to use.   I do think choosing where to do the boundaries might have some influence on posters’ choices.  E.g. if there had been a .675 - .705 option that might have been an easier choice than having to decide on one range that feels optimistic and another that feels pessimistic.   But, it was sort of unavoidable in a multiple choice poll.   

[btdart20]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s been tricky to decide what midpoint and variance to use.   I do think choosing where to do the boundaries might have some influence on posters’ choices.  E.g. if there had been a .675 - .705 option that might have been an easier choice than having to decide on one range that feels optimistic and another that feels pessimistic.   But, it was sort of unavoidable in a multiple choice poll.   

You're right that it influences/frames it to some degree.  But you're doing fine.  A lot of my guesses have been board line between two tiers.  

His statcast page is sad.  Below MLB average pretty much across the board for his career.  His MiLB power numbers were boosted by home park factors.  Not sure he has much more in the tank without significant luck.

.660-.689

 

[sportsfan8703]

A stress injury develops over time. After reading his rotoworld site it seems like it had been hampering him long before he was diagnosed as hurt. He was even benched for not “busting it out of the box”. That’s hard to do with shin splints over 162 games. He’s still young. Has talent. Seems like a good fresh start candidate. 
 

I don’t know if he’s ready for ST fully, but I think he’ll be called up once healthy unless just everything is going right with the big club. He’s essentially a Jahmai Jones replacement in that he isn’t too much older, plays 2B better, isn’t on the 40 man, and as an option left.