2022 OPS Projection Polls Close on Monday 2/28/22; Summary Results Will Be Published Here

[Frobby]

This is a reminder that the various 2022 OPS Projection Polls close out at 5 pm on Monday, Feb. 28.   If you haven't voted yet, you can find links to them below.   I've added in the range of projections made by various third party sources (ZiPS, PECOTA, etc.)

Anthony Bemboom (.598 - .669) .544 - 19 votes.  .418

Kelvin Gutierrez (.629 - .688) .670 - 27 votes.  .429

Austin Hays (.722 - .797) .790 - 57 votes  .719

Jahmai Jones (.642 - .666) .615 - 30 votes.  DNP

Shed Long (.626 - .700) .659 - 20 votes.  DNP

Trey Mancini (.751 - .819) .809 - 44 votes.  .751

Jorge Mateo (.633 - .704) .696 - 34 votes.  .646

Ryan McKenna (.655 - .726) .656 - 27 votes.  .634

Ryan Mountcastle (.734 - .837) .833 - 60 votes.  .729

Cedric Mullins (.722 - .833) .826 - 46 votes.  .721

Jacob Nottingham (.624 - .723) .639 - 16 votes.  DNP

Rougned Odor (.687 - .723) .682 - 48 votes.  .632

Adley Rustchman (. 723 - .797) .805 - 60 votes.  .806

Anthony Santander (.731 - .775) .780 - 48 votes.  .773

D.J. Stewart (.710 - .782) .726 - 28 votes.  .000 in 3 PA.

Kyle Stowers (.734 - .746) .749 - 47 votes.  .724

Ramon Urias (.676 - .759) .758 - 36 votes.  .720

Once the polls have closed, I'll calculate a median and a weighted average of the OH responses and post them here.

Edited October 13, 2022 by Frobby
Added final season results.

[Sports Guy]

[MarCakes21]

Can you use predictions of team OPS to estimate runs scored as a team and see where we'd rank?  Obviously youd have to use some estimation of ABs per player, but it would be fun to see where we'd stack up based on previous and if we're actually improving like we all think.

[Frobby]

I’ve tabulated the weighted average of each OH player poll and added them in to the OP.   Overall, I think the weighted averages are on the optimistic side but not crazy for most of our regulars, and realistic and maybe slightly pessimistic for the bench players.   Pretty fair take by our posters overall.  At some point I’ll plug these into my projection spreadsheet and see what it spits out for a projected team OPS.

[Frobby]

I added the final season results to the OP.   Keep in mind that the league OPS was down by 30 points.  Even so, the only players who came within 30 points of their OH median projection were Ryan McKenna (.656 projected, .634 actual), Adley Rutschman (.805/.806), Anthony Santander (.780/.773) and Kyle Stowers (.749/.724).   The biggest deficits compared to the median guess were Mullins (.826/.721), Mountcastle (.833/.729) and Hays (.790/.719).   

[Aristotelian]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I added the final season results to the OP.   Keep in mind that the league OPS was down by 30 points.  Even so, the only players who came within 30 points of their OH median projection were Ryan McKenna (.656 projected, .634 actual), Adley Rutschman (.805/.806), Anthony Santander (.780/.773) and Kyle Stowers (.749/.724).   The biggest deficits compared to the median guess were Mullins (.826/.721), Mountcastle (.833/.729) and Hays (.790/.719).   

We also probably weren't accounting for the impact of the wall, although we should have. It's not a big deal if a few homers turn into doubles, but when they turn into outs the OPS takes a big hit.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We also probably weren't accounting for the impact of the wall, although we should have. It's not a big deal if a few homers turn into doubles, but when they turn into outs the OPS takes a big hit.

Yes, I agree.   The O’s OPS dropped 71 points at home, while it actually improved by 49 points on the road.   As detailed elsewhere, the Wall took away 31 homers from the O’s.  Not sure how many of those were doubles vs. outs, but either way that’s costly.