Jordan Lyles 2022

[OriolesMagic83]

5 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Interesting that we signed 3 free agents that all started last year with the Texas Rangers, none of the signings were applauded by the fan base, and while statistically only Lyles has done anything, all 3 appear to have shown a certain amount of veteran leadership and seem to be good guys to have in the clubhouse.

Maybe the O's can make Owings a coach.  Then he can still show veteran leadership while not clogging the roster. 

[maybenxtyr]

That was a pretty honest interview. I generally don't care to watch or listen to athletes or celebrities in interviews, but that was great. That being said, I don't think teams are going to be willing to trade enough to make it worth moving him. There's not a lot of help on the farm for decent bulk innings... which is something he has provided this far. 

 

I also think there's an option floating around for next season, and I think it would be wise to pick that up if it's up to Baltimore. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

27 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

That was a pretty honest interview. I generally don't care to watch or listen to athletes or celebrities in interviews, but that was great. That being said, I don't think teams are going to be willing to trade enough to make it worth moving him. There's not a lot of help on the farm for decent bulk innings... which is something he has provided this far. 

 

I also think there's an option floating around for next season, and I think it would be wise to pick that up if it's up to Baltimore. 

Especially with Means out Lyles is the only established starter on the roster who can be penciled in for a certain number of innings pitched. Yes, Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall both could/should come up at some point, but they're not here yet. 

Zimmermann and Wells have been alright, but you can't count on them for a full season (yet).

[BMann]

4 hours ago, interloper said:

Exactly. Everyone busted a nut at $7 million, but we're not operating on a level playing field as the rest of baseball. We have a hitter's park reputation, we have a losing team that is very young, we play in the AL East. If people don't want the Matt Harvey's and Wade LeBlanc's of the world, the next tier is Jordan Lyles and we have to pay appropriately for that relative to the position we're in. Which is not a position of bargaining strength. We needed innings and that's what we paid for. The savviness comes when the Orioles took a chance on late-2021 Lyles being the new & improved Lyles. So far they've been right. He's been much more competitive than I thought he would be. 

I confess I was one of those fans who was ready to lump the Lyles signing in with those other lower-tier FA pitchers we've signed over the past... decade (?), fully prepared to watch him implode, pitch to an ERA over 6, and get dealt at the deadline for nothing of value just to dump his salary. Very happy to have been wrong so far!

[BohKnowsBmore]

Lyles is interesting in terms of how wildly BBRef and Fangraphs diverge on his value.

BBRef has him as being worth 0.2 rWAR this season and -2.2 over the course of his career.

Fangraphs has him as being worth 0.8 fWAR this season and 6.6 over the course of his career.

[amdcpus]

57 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Lyles is interesting in terms of how wildly BBRef and Fangraphs diverge on his value.

BBRef has him as being worth 0.2 rWAR this season and -2.2 over the course of his career.

Fangraphs has him as being worth 0.8 fWAR this season and 6.6 over the course of his career.

Just using common sense, the BBref valuation for this season makes no sense. It basically has him at 0 war, aka an AAA callup would be statistically identical to him, which is just laughable. An AAA callup would probably have double his ERA in the same amount of innings

[SilverRocket]

BBRef has Nick Vespi at 0.9 WAR with his one game. Something's just really wrong with their formula right now, at least for pitchers.

[BohKnowsBmore]

19 minutes ago, amdcpus said:

Just using common sense, the BBref valuation for this season makes no sense. It basically has him at 0 war, aka an AAA callup would be statistically identical to him, which is just laughable. An AAA callup would probably have double his ERA in the same amount of innings

Digging under the hood a bit, it seems that bbRef methodology may be harming Lyles specifically at the moment. He gets credited with his 4 unearned runs, but he's also being "penalized" with a positive defensive adjustment (i.e., formula is suggesting that he has been the beneficiary of positive team defense and adjusting accordingly for the league average comparison point).

[BohKnowsBmore]

21 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

BBRef has Nick Vespi at 0.9 WAR with his one game. Something's just really wrong with their formula right now, at least for pitchers.

Yep, seems to be an error in the calculation for Vespi. The RA9opp value (average runs scored per 9) by his opponents is listed as 6.06. This is an important comparison point for what the pitcher has allowed vs. league-wide average expectaiton for given opponent set.

He's only faced the Rays, who have an average runs per game of 4.39. R/game is a close correlate for runs per 9, if not a little higher due to extras. Dodgers lead the majors with a 5.54 figure.

[Just Regular]

He is clinging by his fingernails flickering into the AL IP Top 10 after his turns since the many abbreviated outings following the John Means No Hitter Memorial Yankee Stadium Burnout of May 23.

48/16 K/BB on the year through that night; 7/6 since then.

I was hoping a little the offday + rainout 6 days rest might help, but not so much yet.   I'm sure at Toronto will go fine.

[Sports Guy]

Starting to normalize a little bit.

[Frobby]

David Laurila interviewed Lyles in Fangraphs today.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-jordan-lyles-knows-what-its-like-to-lose/

[luismatos4prez]

I think we can all agree that Lyles has surpassed our expectations and was a solid enough signing by Mike. He's 24th in baseball in IP and his value lies somewhere between B-Ref's -0.4 WAR and Fangraphs' 1.3 WAR.

He has an 11M option for next year with a 1M buyout. Would you bring him back for 10M? I can't imagine we'll get much more than an Andrew Cashner return (2 lottery tickets) for him if we trade him. 

If you had to decide today, what would you choose?

A) Trade him by the deadline

B) Let him finish the year but don't pick up his option

C) Pay him 10M to be a vet innings eater next year

[RVAOsFan]

15 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

I think we can all agree that Lyles has surpassed our expectations and was a solid enough signing by Mike. He's 24th in baseball in IP and his value lies somewhere between B-Ref's -0.4 WAR and Fangraphs' 1.3 WAR.

He has an 11M option for next year with a 1M buyout. Would you bring him back for 10M? I can't imagine we'll get much more than an Andrew Cashner return (2 lottery tickets) for him if we trade him. 

If you had to decide today, what would you choose?

A) Trade him by the deadline

B) Let him finish the year but don't pick up his option

C) Pay him 10M to be a vet innings eater next year

I don't think you can even consider trading him at the deadline we need all the help we can get eating innings the rest of the season.  I say pick up the option if we can't find a couple guys better than him in free agency this winter.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RVAOsFan said:

I don't think you can even consider trading him at the deadline we need all the help we can get eating innings the rest of the season.  I say pick up the option if we can't find a couple guys better than him in free agency this winter.

Or, don't pick up the option, pay him his 1M and then resign him for the 5M he's actually worth?