Cedric Mullins 2022

[Just Regular]

I heard this afternoon that the current MLB-wide .232 AVG is .006 less than it was in the uber-famous 1968 Year of the Pitcher.

Those 14th and 15th pitchers will at least go away next week.

[interloper]

15 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I heard this afternoon that the current MLB-wide .232 AVG is .006 less than it was in the uber-famous 1968 Year of the Pitcher.

Those 14th and 15th pitchers will at least go away next week.

That could be a bigger factor in all this than maybe people think. Going to be a lot less fresh arms in the 'pen soon. 

[SteveA]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

That could be a bigger factor in all this than maybe people think. Going to be a lot less fresh arms in the 'pen soon. 

See the new thread at the top of the board... they have just announced they will make it a 14 pitcher minimum from May 2 to May 30, so only 1 pitcher will have to go on Monday.

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, SteveA said:

See the new thread at the top of the board... they have just announced they will make it a 14 pitcher minimum from May 2 to May 30, so only 1 pitcher will have to go on Monday.

Gotcha, thanks. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

17 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I heard this afternoon that the current MLB-wide .232 AVG is .006 less than it was in the uber-famous 1968 Year of the Pitcher.

Those 14th and 15th pitchers will at least go away next week.

For some perspective Mullins had a .723 OPS in 2020 that translated into a 95 OPS+. This season so far Mullins has a 109 OPS+ and his OPS is .708.

Offense is down, but Mullins is still a tad better than the league average hitter.  When you add in Mullins speed and defense, he's still a very good ballplayer.

[Just Regular]

Despite a medium-sized raw O-Swing% in the 30's, Mullins rated excellent (5th best MLB-wide) at this "better" Swing Decisions metric presented in an article at BP today.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/74813/the-crooked-inning-bad-decision-plate-discipline/

The developer was trying to get context based on hitter quality and swings or non-swings based on pitch locations.   One illustration was on Daniel Vogelbach, DJ Stewart's brethren as a guy with a very low O-Swing% but one whose hitting output is throttled because he watches lots of hittable strikes too.   Tim Anderson is another like Mullins whose performance at this measurement contrasted with Vogelbach.

One of the first things you might notice is the concentration of orange in the middle of Vogelbach’s plot compared to Anderson’s. There are also decidedly fewer of the red triangles that represent poor swings. This is because Vogelbach’s bad decisions mostly aren’t the result of what he swings at, but rather what he doesn’t. He simply watches too many crushable pitches go by in his nitro zone or on the edge of the plate in 2-strike counts: nearly half–14 out of 32–of his strikeouts this season have been a result of called third strikes. Those backwards Ks are the orange squares dotted around the edge of the strike zone, with the rest of his bad takes concentrated in and around the area where he should be doing his most damage. This passivity is how a player with an uncanny sense of what is or isn’t a strike hasn’t been able to capitalize at a rate commensurate with his combination of power and patience.

[btdart20]

6 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Despite a medium-sized raw O-Swing% in the 30's, Mullins rated excellent (5th best MLB-wide) at this "better" Swing Decisions metric presented in an article at BP today.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/74813/the-crooked-inning-bad-decision-plate-discipline/

The developer was trying to get context based on hitter quality and swings or non-swings based on pitch locations.   One illustration was on Daniel Vogelbach, DJ Stewart's brethren as a guy with a very low O-Swing% but one whose hitting output is throttled because he watches lots of hittable strikes too.   Tim Anderson is another like Mullins whose performance at this measurement contrasted with Vogelbach.

One of the first things you might notice is the concentration of orange in the middle of Vogelbach’s plot compared to Anderson’s. There are also decidedly fewer of the red triangles that represent poor swings. This is because Vogelbach’s bad decisions mostly aren’t the result of what he swings at, but rather what he doesn’t. He simply watches too many crushable pitches go by in his nitro zone or on the edge of the plate in 2-strike counts: nearly half–14 out of 32–of his strikeouts this season have been a result of called third strikes. Those backwards Ks are the orange squares dotted around the edge of the strike zone, with the rest of his bad takes concentrated in and around the area where he should be doing his most damage. This passivity is how a player with an uncanny sense of what is or isn’t a strike hasn’t been able to capitalize at a rate commensurate with his combination of power and patience.

So, you're saying it's no different than my 10U players?!    Kids swinging when there is no physical way the bat will touch the ball while others will stare at a lob down the middle!  

[Spy Fox]

Mullins is hitting .298/.344/.456/.800 in June. A four-hit game and a three-hit game this week.

Hopefully he can sustain it, he was also quite good in the first half of May before entering another multi-week cold streak. 

[Moose Milligan]

He’s looked better in recent weeks. I know he won’t be the player he was last year but still trying to determine who he is. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

He’s looked better in recent weeks. I know he won’t be the player he was last year but still trying to determine who he is. 

Just hope he’s really good for the next month and that team moves him for pitching.

[Gentile4]

If he can hit .265-.270 w/a .335 OBA and 12-15 HRs, with his defense and base stealing ability, why not keep him. He's only 27. Now, whether he can put up those numbers remains to be seen.

[Moose Milligan]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Just hope he’s really good for the next month and that team moves him for pitching.

Would you give up any good pitching for him if you were on the other side?

[MurphDogg]

He is on pace for a 4.3 rWAR season and has three years left of team control. 

Unless you are getting at least a couple top-100 prospects plus additional pieces for him, I don't see why you would trade him.

And I don't see anyone offering a couple top-100 prospects for him.

[Yossarian]

7 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

He is on pace for a 4.3 rWAR season and has three years left of team control. 

Unless you are getting at least a couple top-100 prospects plus additional pieces for him, I don't see why you would trade him.

And I don't see anyone offering a couple top-100 prospects for him.

And nobody coming up that would be better at his position any time soon. 

[MurphDogg]

6 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

And nobody coming up that would be better at his position any time soon. 

The argument is that Hays can shift to center with Stowers in left. But it makes the team markedly worse through the next three seasons when (in my opinion) they hope to compete. 

If Diaz and Kjerstad and Cowser were all knocking on the door it might be different, but I don't want to be one (more) Hays freak injury away from Ryan McKenna being the everyday centerfielder for a lengthy stretch of time.