Cedric Mullins 2022

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I tend to agree with SG,  he’s a speed player and when he starts to slow down his arm makes him worthless. Do I think he can maintain into his early 30s ? It’s possible but not worth the gamble. Hays can play center, Stowers is ready for a regular role to show what he has, and you have Vavra. Plus Diaz is finally hitting .333 average with a .964 OPS in AAA

So trade the player you can count on and keep the guy who hasn't stayed on the field for a full year.  And then mention Diaz as if he's a viable option.  Lol

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So trade the player you can count on and keep the guy who hasn't stayed on the field for a full year.  And then mention Diaz as if he's a viable option.  Lol

How long do you think it takes for a player to lose the injury prone tag?   I’m not debating your point above, it just prompted this question for me.   Let’s say Hays gets through 2022 without an IL trip (crossing fingers).   In 2023 are we still thinking of him as an injury prone player?  

FWIW, Hays was 27th in total OF innings played in 2021.   So, despite some early season injuries last year, he ended up playing more than most outfielders did.  In the last 365 days he’s played in 154 games, per BB-ref.  (Mullins has played in 157.)

Back to the topic, I think we’d lose a lot on defense if we traded Mullins and moved Hays to CF.   We’d weaken our defense at two positions by doing that.  That doesn’t mean we don’t do it, it just means we need to be realistic about what the negative consequences are when deciding if the benefits of the trade are worth it.   
 

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How long do you think it takes for a player to lose the injury prone tag?   I’m not debating your point above, it just prompted this question for me.   Let’s say Hays gets through 2022 without an IL trip (crossing fingers).   In 2023 are we still thinking of him as an injury prone player?  

FWIW, Hays was 27th in total OF innings played in 2021.   So, despite some early season injuries last year, he ended up playing more than most outfielders did.  In the last 365 days he’s played in 154 games, per BB-ref.  (Mullins has played in 157.)

Back to the topic, I think we’d lose a lot on defense if we traded Mullins and moved Hays to CF.   We’d weaken our defense at two positions by doing that.  That doesn’t mean we don’t do it, it just means we need to be realistic about what the negative consequences are when deciding if the benefits of the trade are worth it.   
 

I'd feel better about Hays if he makes it through this season.  I thought it was funny he mentioned Diaz as if he's currently playing.  He just started another rehab yesterday. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I'd feel better about Hays if he makes it through this season.  I thought it was funny he mentioned Diaz as if he's currently playing.  He just started another rehab yesterday. 

So …You place the best configuration of Stowers, Hays, and Vavra. You bring up YD and he can replace Mancini at DH. You can use him occasionally in the COF unless you are scared he’s going to get hurt. We aren’t winning this year anyway and you know Elias is going to trade some of these guys.

[survivedc]

Lotta talk about Mullins losing his speed, I’m not sure that’s a 31-32 yr old cut off. Brett Gardner (bulkier) similar in size and stayed fast enough to be in the outfield, same with Coco Crisp (RIP to seeing that name). Wonder if there is a size component to speed deterioration.

Either way, I think you have to say yes to the right offer (DL Hall prior to this year plus package), but I’m not eager to make a hole when it seems next year could be a fun one.

[wildcard]

I don't think Mullins and Hays are going anywhere until 2024.   Mancini gets traded this deadline and Santander at the 2023 deadline is my guess.   

Vavra is a interesting case that I don't think we know enough about.  His OBP projects that he has to play regularly.   However, its possible that he doesn't  have the arm strength to turn the double play at 2B that the O's value so much.   And its possible he does not have the range to play CF.   That would mean he will compete with players that have more power for a  corner OF spot.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, survivedc said:

Lotta talk about Mullins losing his speed, I’m not sure that’s a 31-32 yr old cut off. Brett Gardner (bulkier) similar in size and stayed fast enough to be in the outfield, same with Coco Crisp (RIP to seeing that name). Wonder if there is a size component to speed deterioration.

Either way, I think you have to say yes to the right offer (DL Hall prior to this year plus package), but I’m not eager to make a hole when it seems next year could be a fun one.

Mullins sprint speed by year:

2018 29.4

2019: 29.2

2020: 28.7

2021: 28.5

2022: 28.4

Still 83rd percentile.  But let’s say he loses another second over the next four years.  That’s about 58th percentile.  Playing CF gets a bit dicey then.  Crisp was 79th percentile even in his final year in the league (28.1).   

 

[Ohfan67]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mullins sprint speed by year:

2018 29.4

2019: 29.2

2020: 28.7

2021: 28.5

2022: 28.4

Still 83rd percentile.  But let’s say he loses another second over the next four years.  That’s about 58th percentile.  Playing CF gets a bit dicey then.  Crisp was 79th percentile even in his final year in the league (28.1).   

 

Mullins is getting faster. At this rate Mullins will be the fastest player in baseball in about ten years. 
 

[Ohfan67]

1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

Mullins is getting faster. At this rate Mullins will be the fastest player in baseball in about ten years. 
 

Never mind!! My joke was ruined by my stupidity. I thought a lower number was faster then realized it’s expressed as distance by time. 

[Spy Fox]

I noticed that despite his offensive dropoff, Mullins is currently leading the team in fWAR (1.7) and tied with Hays for the lead in rWAR (2.4). Still a very strong overall player. 

He hit .300 with a .776 OPS in June, but the power is still missing. Just one HR in his last 48 games dating to mid-May. 

[SteveA]

Last year, 30-30 club.

At the halfway point of the 2022 season:  7 HRs, 16 steals.

[jdwilde1]

6 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

 

I noticed that despite his offensive dropoff, Mullins is currently leading the team in fWAR (1.7) and tied with Hays for the lead in rWAR (2.4). Still a very strong overall player. 

He hit .300 with a .776 OPS in June, but the power is still missing. Just one HR in his last 48 games dating to mid-May. 

 

His homers are down, but he is still hitting for extra bases at a decent clip (20 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR).  That’s still pretty good pop and more in line with his minor league production than the 30/30 season.  14 homers and 40 doubles to go with 30+ steals is nothing to sneeze at.

Also, I was looking at his average exit velocity, and its just slightly below last year (89.4 - 2021, 88.9 -2022).  His barrel percentage is down (8.1% - 2021, 5.5% - 2022), but his combined barrel% and solid% is actually up (12.1% -2021, 12.6% -2022).  In addition, his average launch angle and his   under% are up, so it looks like he may be getting under the ball just  a bit more often than last year.  So, he is hitting the ball hard (i.e. solid) a little more often than last year, but he’s crushing it (i.e. barrel) a bit less often.  Based on that info, I think he has more homers in the second half (I am guessing he ends up with 17+).

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cedric-mullins-656775?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[Moshagge3]

Probably statistical noise, but Cedric's slash line in the first inning this year is .174/.230/.246.  I wish he were better at setting the table to  start the game, because Mancini has been excellent in the first inning. 

[MurphDogg]

On pace for 5 rWAR. Not bad for a sophomore slump.

[survivedc]

His stroke is so quick when he’s going well, fun to watch.