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AJ to New York done deal according to ESPN


bluedog

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That article ignores his injury risk. It assumes he's going to remain healthy and asks the question "what would his production be worth if he stays healthy?"

Or it projects him to pitch about the same amount of innings he's averaged over the last 4 years.

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Everytime I mention Similarity Scores, it provokes a lecture about how worthless they are, blah blah blah

However, I think Burnett's top 10 statistical comps through age 31 are worth a look. They are:

Pete Harnisch (965)

Stan Williams (955)

Juan Guzman (954)

Erik Hanson (952)

Kirk McCaskill (951)

Wilson Alvarez (948)

Randy Wolf (947)

Mike Boddicker (946)

Jose Guzman (943)

Hideo Nomo (943)

From age 32 forward, the only guys on that list that exceeded 25 wins or 387 wins to the end of their career were Boddicker & Nomo.

Boddicker, intimately familiar to O's fans, lasted 549 1/3 more innings and won 33 games.

Nomo is a poor comp, because he was a star in Japan before coming to MLB and therefore has a stronger pro track record.

If Burnett performs like the average of his statistical peers, he's looking at less than 25 more wins and less than 400 more innings. Now, I understand similarity scores weren't designed to project, but I'd be very, very surprised if good ol' A.J. separates himself from this back by any significant margin.

I wish him the best of health and lots of "L's" next to his name in pinstripes.

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Or it projects him to pitch about the same amount of innings he's averaged over the last 4 years.

It's convenient to use a 4 year comparison considering that starts and ends with 200+ IP seasons.

Over his career, he's averaged less than 156 IP and last year was the first time he's had more than 12 wins. If you take away last years 18 win season, he's only averaged 9.86 wins per season. Even if you take away his injury-lost 2003 season, he's averaged less than 11 wins per season. He's only met or beat that 175 IP 'average' three times in his career: 2002 (204.1 IP) and, oddly enough, both of his FA seasons, 2005 (209 IP) and 2008 (221.1 IP).

It should also be noted that the two previous occasions where he beat that 175 IP 'average' were followed by prolonged stints on the DL the following season: 2003 where he had Tommy John and 2006 where he started the year on the DL, made 2 starts and then spent the next 2 months on the DL again.

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It's convenient to use a 4 year comparison considering that starts and ends with 200+ IP seasons.

Over his career, he's averaged less than 156 IP and last year was the first time he's had more than 12 wins. If you take away last years 18 win season, he's only averaged 9.86 wins per season. Even if you take away his injury-lost 2003 season, he's averaged less than 11 wins per season. He's only met or beat that 175 IP 'average' three times in his career: 2002 (204.1 IP) and, oddly enough, both of his FA seasons, 2005 (209 IP) and 2008 (221.1 IP).

It should also be noted that the two previous occasions where he beat that 175 IP 'average' were followed by prolonged stints on the DL the following season: 2003 where he had Tommy John and 2006 where he started the year on the DL, made 2 starts and then spent the next 2 months on the DL again.

It may be convenient, but it also makes sense since that is starting with the first full season after recovering from TJ surgery. It's also common belief that pitchers are less likely to need another TJ surgery if they've already had one. Other than that one major injury, he has pitched a decent amount.

I also don't care much about wins as a stat for pitchers.

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It may be convenient, but it also makes sense since that is starting with the first full season after recovering from TJ surgery. It's also common belief that pitchers are less likely to need another TJ surgery if they've already had one. Other than that one major injury, he has pitched a decent amount.

I also don't care much about wins as a stat for pitchers.

Fair enough. Pitchers only have so much control over a game.

I just don't like it how people totally ignore certain stats (like Wins) but then turn around and use that same stat to make another argument. (Not saying you did, just saying in general)

I'm supposed to be impressed that he's now an 18 game winner, but the fact he's never won more than 12 games in his career before this doesn't mean anything?

Wins aren't a good way to judge a player, but 300 wins is considered an almost shoe-in for the HoF?

Wins aren't important ... but they are enough to keep Bert Blyleven out of the HoF?

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