2022 MLB Win Total Props

[SteveA]

Here are the win total over/under bets (Source:  BetDsi.com) for each major league team.   I'll give a few that I might like.   I did this last year, and my picks went 4-5.   As I said last year, even though I do bet on sports I don't usually make bets on these season win totals   The main reason is I am a small time bettor ($10 average bet size except NFL where it's $20).   So I usually only have a couple hundred bucks in a sports betting account at any one time.   I feel silly making a $10 bet and waiting 6 months to see how if I win or lose $10, but I don't want to tie up a larger amount of $ for 6 months.   So I don't actually bet these.   These are just recommendations/opinions,:

• Dodgers 98.5 -- obviously the best team in baseball.  Rotation is top notch, bullpen still good, and an incredible lineup.  No reason to want to go under, but it's really hard for any team to win 99 games, you need a lot of breaks, so I won't go over either.   Pass
• Blue Jays 93.5 -- Probably the best team in the AL East, but it's a tough division, so this # is about right.
• Astros 92.5 -- still a strong lineup, solid bullpen.   Can Verlander come back and anchor the rotation?   Are the international signees from the early to mid teens that now make up the bulk of their starting rotation now championship caliber?   I'm not sure of those answers so I'll pass.
• Yankees 92.5 -- 57 games vs Toronto/Tampa/Boston.  Not thrilled with the 2-5 starters.   Nestor Cortes, really?   Chapman ain't what he used to be.   Still too righthanded for a park that strongly favors LH hitters.   Recommended bet:  Yankees UNDER 92.5 wins
• White Sox 91.5 -- they are the favorite in the AL Central, and should be.   So I lean to an over.   But I think that with the Indians' strong rotation, and the possibility that the Tigers and Twins could both be improved this year, the division isn't quite as weak as people think.   I almost recommended an over here but in the end I decided to pass.   You'll see below that I recommend over bets on two other teams in the division.  With 78 games, almost half the schedule, being divisional play, it's not logical to bet 3 overs in the same division.   Teams will beat each other up head to head.
• Braves 91.5 -- I have a slight lean to the over here but not enough to make it a recommendation.  Only one really bad team in the NL East for them to beat up on (Washington).
• Brewers 90.5 -- a fantastic starting rotation AND bullpen.   Yeah, the offense is not strong.   But with the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates in the division and the balanced schedule not going into effect until next year, I think the Brewers are going to win the Central pretty easily and go over this number.   In fact, I think that even though LA and Atlanta may have better teams, the schedule may allow the Brewers to have the best record in the NL.   Recommended bet:  Brewers OVER 90.5 wins
• Mets 89.5 -- if deGrom and Scherzer early season injury problems turn out to be long lasting, this is an easy under.   But I don't want to overreact at this point.   Each of those guys could wind up making 25+ starts and this initial week could be a forgotten blip by September.   I'd leave this one alone.
• Rays 88.5 -- always hard to get a read on this team.   Meadows and Wendle are gone.   Baz is hurt.   But they usually manage to contend.   This # looks about right.
• Padres 88.5 --  I keep going back and forth on this one.   How much time will Tatis miss?   They were such a disappointment last year.   And of course they have some tough opposition in their division.   But I am going to put some faith in Bob Melvin, I think he will handle the pitching better than the last guy did.  The Giants are going to lose 20+ more games than last year and teams in the division will pick up half of those.   Recommended bet:  Padres OVER 88.5 wins
• Philies 86.5 -- I wanted to go over here.   Pitching is solid, especially if Nola bounces back, his FIP last year was excellent so the jump in ERA was a fluke.   And obviously the bats are stacked.   But this was rated one of the worst defensive teams in MLB last year, and had a bad bullpen, and I'm not sure those key flaws have been addressed enough.   Pass.
• Giants 84.5 -- last year was magical.   I still can't explain it.   They got guys who had sucked with other teams and they were great (Gausman, DeSclafani).   They had guys in their 30s producing way better than expected.    Posey is gone,  yes Bard is a good prospect but I think Posey's leadership meant a lot.   Gausman is gone.   Longoria hurt already.   They are still an old team.  So I expect a drastic dropoff from last year.   If this number had come in around 89 I would love the under.   But man, they won 107 last year, so this bet has a built in 23 game dropoff!   I don't think I can do the under here.
• Red Sox 84.5 -- tough division.   Will Chris Sale ever pitch?     I could see them winning 90, I could see them winning 80.   Pass.
• Cardinals 84.5 -- you would think they could go over, best offense in the division.   But when your rotation starts with a 40+ year old and has a bunch of guys coming back from serious injury, I won't touch it
• Mariners 84.5 -- they've picked up some good pieces in Winker and Ray.   They've got some young talent.   The Angels are overrated, Texas improved but is still bad, Oakland is being stripped for parts, so there are some wins to be had in the division.   Recommended bet:  Mariners OVER 84.5 wins.
• Angels 83.5 -- this isn't the NBA.   Two superstars doesn't make you a contender.   After Ohtani, the rotation is kind of scary.   Recommended bet:  Angels UNDER 83.5 wins
• Twins 81.5 -- seems about right
• Tigers 78.5 -- Tigers were over .500 from May through August last year and they've added some pieces.   Recommended bet:  Tigers OVER 78.5 wins.
• Guardians 76.5 -- just on the strength of their young starting rotation, I like the over here.   Recommended bet:  Guardians OVER 76.5 wins
• Marlins 76.5 -- The starting rotation is very good.   They have tried to add some bats (Wendle, Soler).   Still not a powerhouse lineup, but they might not be done dealing.   I think this is a .500 team.   Recommended bet:  Marlins over 76.5 wins.
• Cubs 75.5 -- the rotation doesn't look very good and many of the big names are gone.  That all points to an under but they play 19 games each against the Pirates and Reds, so that scares me a bit.  I lean under but will not recommend a play here.
• Royals 74.5 -- this one looks about right to me
• Rangers 74.5 -- despite spending big money on infielders, I just don't think the pitching is good enough.   Jon Gray is a good start.   But it would take a 15 game improvement over last year to go over here, and I just don't see that.   Recommended bet:  Rangers under 74.5 wins.
• Reds 73.5 -- lots of talent gone in the past year, though there is still some left.   Lots of uncertainty with young starters in the rotation, will Votto be dealt, etc.   Pass.
• Nationals 71.5 -- they are paying more than the Orioles'  entire payroll to two starting pitchers -- Patrick Corbin whose career seems to be in a multi-year freefall, and Strasburg who is trying to come back from thoracic outlet syndrome.   They have one great player and the rest of the lineup is very weak.   And you can usually count on the Nats bullpen to be a festering dumpster fire.   This is a bad team.   I think there's a decent chance that the Orioles will not be the worst team in the Baltimore/Washington metropolitan area this year, and I'll be following that battle and rooting for that to happen.   Recommended bet:  Nationals under 71.5 wins.  
• Athletics 69.5 -- it's tempting to say that Beane has a plan and knows what he is doing and bet the over.   But if Montas is traded this roster is going to be pretty pathetic looking.    Can't touch this.
• Rockies 68.5 -- they look bad, but it's hard to go under a # this low
• Diamondbacks 67.5 -- a very bad baseball team, this number is about right.
• Pirates 65.5 -- a bad team but it's hard to go under a number this low, pass
• Orioles 63.5 -- I'll be rooting for the over but i can't recommend it in good conscience.

[SteveA]

The 10 plays I recommended went 6-4, so they would have made a small profit.

On 4/7/2022 at 12:58 PM, SteveA said:

 

• Yankees 92.5 -- 57 games vs Toronto/Tampa/Boston.  Not thrilled with the 2-5 starters.   Nestor Cortes, really?   Chapman ain't what he used to be.   Still too righthanded for a park that strongly favors LH hitters.   Recommended bet:  Yankees UNDER 92.5 wins   

             ---> LOSER Yankees won 99

• Brewers 90.5 -- a fantastic starting rotation AND bullpen.   Yeah, the offense is not strong.   But with the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates in the division and the balanced schedule not going into effect until next year, I think the Brewers are going to win the Central pretty easily and go over this number.   In fact, I think that even though LA and Atlanta may have better teams, the schedule may allow the Brewers to have the best record in the NL.   Recommended bet:  Brewers OVER 90.5 wins

              ----> LOSER Brewers faded down the stretch and won 86

• Padres 88.5 --  I keep going back and forth on this one.   How much time will Tatis miss?   They were such a disappointment last year.   And of course they have some tough opposition in their division.   But I am going to put some faith in Bob Melvin, I think he will handle the pitching better than the last guy did.  The Giants are going to lose 20+ more games than last year and teams in the division will pick up half of those.   Recommended bet:  Padres OVER 88.5 win

               ----> WINNER.  This one was the closest, Padres won 89

• Mariners 84.5 -- they've picked up some good pieces in Winker and Ray.   They've got some young talent.   The Angels are overrated, Texas improved but is still bad, Oakland is being stripped for parts, so there are some wins to be had in the division.   Recommended bet:  Mariners OVER 84.5 wins

              ---> WINNER, the Mariners won 90 games

• Angels 83.5 -- this isn't the NBA.   Two superstars doesn't make you a contender.   After Ohtani, the rotation is kind of scary.   Recommended bet:  Angels UNDER 83.5 wins

          --------> WINNER the Angels won 73 games

• Tigers 78.5 -- Tigers were over .500 from May through August last year and they've added some pieces.   Recommended bet:  Tigers OVER 78.5 wins.

          -------> LOSER, the Tigers won 66 games

• Guardians 76.5 -- just on the strength of their young starting rotation, I like the over here.   Recommended bet:  Guardians OVER 76.5 wins

          -----> WINNER, the Guardians won 92 games

• Marlins 76.5 -- The starting rotation is very good.   They have tried to add some bats (Wendle, Soler).   Still not a powerhouse lineup, but they might not be done dealing.   I think this is a .500 team.   Recommended bet:  Marlins over 76.5 wins.

            -----> LOSER the Marlins won 69 games

• Rangers 74.5 -- despite spending big money on infielders, I just don't think the pitching is good enough.   Jon Gray is a good start.   But it would take a 15 game improvement over last year to go over here, and I just don't see that.   Recommended bet:  Rangers under 74.5 wins.

              ---------> WINNER the Rangers won 68 games

• Nationals 71.5 -- they are paying more than the Orioles'  entire payroll to two starting pitchers -- Patrick Corbin whose career seems to be in a multi-year freefall, and Strasburg who is trying to come back from thoracic outlet syndrome.   They have one great player and the rest of the lineup is very weak.   And you can usually count on the Nats bullpen to be a festering dumpster fire.   This is a bad team.   I think there's a decent chance that the Orioles will not be the worst team in the Baltimore/Washington metropolitan area this year, and I'll be following that battle and rooting for that to happen.   Recommended bet:  Nationals under 71.5 wins.  

           --------> WINNER, the Nats won 55 games.   And as I said could happen, they finished with a worse record than the Orioles

 

[backwardsk]

I got killed this year.  1-3.  Got the over on Cleveland.