AL Rookie of the Year race

[Just Regular]

Guardians OF Steven Kwan bolts to the lead with 0.7 WAR in less than a week.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=2

Astros SS Jeremy Pena another older good prospect if not a franchise cornerstone off to a good start.

[SteveA]

Meanwhile:  Witt, Torkelson, and Rodriguez are a combined 4 for 40 so far.

Check back on this in a month or so!

[Frobby]

The rookie of the year race starts today! Adley has spotted everyone one-quarter of a season.  Will he catch them?   Leading candidates:

Jeremy Pena 2.0 rWAR, 134 PA, .277/.338/.513, 7 HR, 21 RBI

Steven Kwan, 0.9 rWAR, 123 PA, .265/.374/.373, 1 HR, 13 RBI

Joe Ryan, 1.1 rWAR, 4-2, 2.39 ERA in 7 starts 

The big names:

Julio Rodriguez 0.6 rWAR, 145 PA, .262/.317/.372, 3 HR, 14 RBI

Bobby Witt Jr. 0.4 rWAR, 150 PA, .221/.267/.400, 4 HR, 16 RBI

Spencer Torkelson, -0.4 rWAR, 124 PA, .179/.290/.321, 4 HR, 11 RBI

I’d say Pena won’t be caught if he continues posting an .851 OPS the rest of the year.   Ditto Joe Ryan if he posts a 2.39 ERA all year.   Otherwise I think Adley could catch and pass everyone else.   He didn’t lose a lot of ground on the “big three” of Rodriguez, Witt and Torkelson.  So if Adley does well, it may be a case of whether Pena and Ryan come down to earth.

 

 

[Frobby]

Here’s an article today from Fangraphs.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-al-rookie-of-the-year-race-is-as-interesting-as-ever/

Comments on Adley:

“As for Rutschman, the top preseason prospect in baseball, a spring arm injury held him out for the first few weeks of the season and he wasn’t called up until late May. In what’s become a recurring theme for these youngsters, Rutschman struggled to make an immediate impact. He collected hits in four of his first five games but then collected just three over his next 10. He’s looked a bit more comfortable recently, with eight hits across his last seven games, including the first home run of his big league career.

“In previous seasons, Rutschman’s call-up likely would have coincided with those of other top prospects reaching the majors. As it is, he’s lost 30–40 games to the rookies who made their debuts on Opening Day. The most fascinating thing is that we’re just over a third of the way through the season. Peña, Rodríguez, and Witt have raced out to early leads but there are still so many more games to play. That gives Torkelson and Rutschman an opportunity to turn their seasons around and make a push for the award.”

ZiPS currently projects Adley at 2.2 fWAR by the end of the season, compared to Rodriguez 4.6, Pena 4.4, Witt 4.1.  

[Frobby]

Adley’s starting to make his move.  At this point Pena (2.8 rWAR) and Rodriguez (2.5) have to be the front runners.   Kwan (1.6) and Witt (1.1) are still in it.  Adley (0.9) has topped all but Rodriguez since his debut.  Rodriguez has an .878 OPS since Adley’s debut and has been worth 1.9 rWAR in that window.  Peña had a 10-game IL detour but still picked up 0.8 rWAR since Adley’s debut.

Having watched many ROY races unfold, I can tell you that the race doesn’t always go to the fastest guy out of the gate.  It’s a long season and these guys aren’t used to the length.   Many a candidate fades down the stretch, so it will be fun to follow this.   

As a reminder, the top two finishers get a full year of service regardless of when they were called up.  For the guys who started on Opening Day, if they finish in the top three their teams get an extra draft pick after the first round of the draft.   

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Adley’s starting to make his move.  At this point Pena (2.8 rWAR) and Rodriguez (2.5) have to be the front runners.   Kwan (1.6) and Witt (1.1) are still in it.  Adley (0.9) has topped all but Rodriguez since his debut.  Rodriguez has an .878 OPS since Adley’s debut and has been worth 1.9 rWAR in that window.  Peña had a 10-game IL detour but still picked up 0.8 rWAR since Adley’s debut.

Having watched many ROY races unfold, I can tell you that the race doesn’t always go to the fastest guy out of the gate.  It’s a long season and these guys aren’t used to the length.   Many a candidate fades down the stretch, so it will be fun to follow this.   

As a reminder, the top two finishers get a full year of service regardless of when they were called up.  For the guys who started on Opening Day, if they finish in the top three their teams get an extra draft pick after the first round of the draft.   

 

I'm rooting hard for Adley!

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm rooting hard for Adley!

I am, and I’m not.  Obviously I want him to have the best season possible, and on the long run I want him to turn out the best of everyone who was rookie-eligible this year.   But I have zero desire to see the O’s lose a year of his service.  Needless to say, I’d love to see him signed long term so that service time becomes irrelevant.   

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I am, and I’m not.  Obviously I want him to have the best season possible, and on the long run I want him to turn out the best of everyone who was rookie-eligible this year.   But I have zero desire to see the O’s lose a year of his service.  Needless to say, I’d love to see him signed long term so that service time becomes irrelevant.   

 

[Just Regular]

Pasquantino debuting tonight.

Learning more about him, my main takeaway is how on earth did Sig's college bat algorithm not find him in 2019?

[Moose Milligan]

Julio Rodriguez is going to be tough to beat.  He's going to be a 20/20 player in his first year, barring injury.  Already at 19 steals.

Just chalk it up to who has the most WAR, anyway.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Julio Rodriguez is going to be tough to beat.  He's going to be a 20/20 player in his first year, barring injury.  Already at 19 steals.

Just chalk it up to who has the most WAR, anyway.

I'm great with Adley finishing second.

[Just Regular]

Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez both exited for concussion precaution type reasons after colliding chasing a bloop.   Both guys forearms/elbows looked like they got the other guy in the face/head.

We're throwing Spenser Watkins against Joe Ryan Friday night.

[Moose Milligan]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm great with Adley finishing second.

I am, too.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm great with Adley finishing second.

Adley's triceps injury flairs up in September and he finishes 3rd.

[Frobby]

I’m all in favor of Adley finishing third and remaining under team control in 2028.   But I won’t be surprised if he catches Peña and Rodriguez.