AL Rookie of the Year race

[MurphDogg]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m all in favor of Adley finishing third and remaining under team control in 2028.   But I won’t be surprised if he catches Peña and Rodriguez.   

Going to be interesting if one of the writers who work for MASN have the Rookie of the Year vote this year if it ends up being a tight race.

Roch and Steve Melewski are both BBWAA voters. Would be a hell of a conflict of interest if the difference between Adley finishing third and second (and getting a full year of service time) came down to the votes of writers who work for the Orioles.

[Just Regular]

Witt is heating up - 306/350/569 last 21 days.    

Pena-Witt-Julio are a pretty sturdy heat shield for two spots.   C'mon OMAR, work that into the Gunnar-Westburg calculations.    The more I think about the new rules, the more I think there's a reasonable chance the Orioles will really have to stretch to obtain 2029, and they've already got 2028 (no Super Two, probably) today.

I confess I am a bit of a Triceps Strain skeptic* (let's see how Gunnar's soft tissue holds up from here) but suppose if the Game Theory line were the Draft Pick Incentives next year are worth more than a 7th partial year of a Gunnar-Grayson-Hall-Westburg player (but not a Rutschman one!) at the end of the decade, maybe the play is to flood the 2023 AL RoY race with Gunnar-Westburg-Grayson-Hall at 125 at-bats/40 innings and get one last inflated Draft Pool in 2024 to pick all the Gregg Olsons and Chris Rays of that year.

*decidedly have not heard Roch, Brown, or any MASN positionally flexible journalist/PR rep/award voter probe Adley about his March-April perspective or for an account from him when/how he suffered the injury, though I have learned his kid sister thinks a secret most don't know about him is he's an awesome dancer.   We'll see how LTC extension efforts unfold in the years to come.   The Mount Rushmore of buying FA years circa 2030 from here looks fairly clearly like Adley-Grayson-Gunnar-<2022 1-1>, and I'd probably sign up for 2-2 today.    Arguably 30-year-old catcher knees an early 4th in those power rankings.

[Just Regular]

With Witt now on a 25-25 pace along with Julio's 30-40, this feels over in terms of Top 2 spots and awarded draft picks.

I'm sure the Astros hope their Pena takes the 2nd bonus pick of the Royals Witt, but pedigree and enough counting stats may be tough to beat.

Adley's 6.75 years looking nicely measured, and hoping from here gaming system is giving Gunnar and Westburg 40-44 days, and between those two and the pitchers blowing all the other challengers away for both 2023 picks.   Outcomes in that scenario might be like 6.75 seasons of Adley, 6.2 seasons of Hall-Gunnar-Westburg, 6.05 seasons of Grayson (guessing for 2 MLB GS here) and 2 bonus picks in the 2024 draft.

[Frobby]

O’s are at the 2/3 mark of the season so this seemed like a good time to check in on the race.  rWAR and games played:

Rodriguez 4.0 in 96 games

Pena 3.5 in 87 games

Kwan 2.9 in 95 games

Rutschman 2.7 in 61 games.

Rodriguez is on the IL with a wrist injury but expected back later this week.  Peña previously missed 10 games in June.   Rutschman missed the first 40 games of the year.   So here’s a projection assuming the leading candidates stay healthy the rest of the way:

Rodriguez 5.8 rWAR

Pena 5.3

Kwan 4.4

Rutschman 4.8 

Pretty close race, and I wouldn’t count Rutschman out because his numbers have been getting better each month, so he might beat his linear projection of 4.8.   

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

I think that if the Orioles don't collapse he will get extra support for the narrative (among the voters that don't just go by the numbers).

I think Rodriguez would have to tank to lose it but that Adley has a real shot to finish second.

[btdart20]

rWAR is a fine measurement.

The optics of the bottom lines look different to the readers as well.

R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OBP/SLG

55/18/57/21/.271/.334/.482

54/15/56/21/.257/.301/451 

51/2/28/9/.298/.371/.381

36/5/19/2/.256/.363/.441

44/15/38/6/.248/.292/.427

Completely agree that Adley has a good chance to finish in the top 2.  

[Frobby]

I think it’s probably a foregone conclusion now that Adley will finish in the top 2 for ROY, vying with Julio Rodriguez for the award.  Jeremy Pena has been in an absolute nosedive for two months now, with his OPS slipping from .809 to .690.

Here’s the top 4 candidates, in my view.

1.  Julio Rodriguez, .272/.331/.479, 23 HR, 67 RBI, 4.8 rWAR, 4.1 fWAR.

2.  Adley Rutschman, .257/.362/.451, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 4.2 rWAR, 4.0 fWAR.

3.  Steven Kwan, .295/.369/.384, 3 HR, 37 RBI, 4.0 rWAR, 3.0 fWAR.

4.  Jeremy Pena, .248/.285/.406, 16 HR, 46 RBI, 3.7 rWAR, 2.4 fWAR.

Although it’s possible that Adley will catch Rodriguez in one or both flavors of WAR, I think Rodriguez’s big edge in HR and RBI will sway traditional voters to his side.   Plus, Seattle is playing great baseball down the stretch and he’s a key component to their playoff drive.   

By the way, I was really impressed with Kwan’s defense in our series with Cleveland last week.  He’s a good ball player.  
 

[btdart20]

I still argue Witt is in the discussion.  More than Kwan and Pena at least.

Player 1:  56/10/30/3/.257/.362/.451 - .289 babip - 4.0 war - 38.4% HH%

Player 2:  69/20/70/26/.248/.290/.443 - .281 babip - 2.1 war - 40.1% HH%

Player 3:  67/3/37/12/.295/.369/.384 - .323 babip - 3.0 war - 20.3% HH%

Player 4:  73/23/67/24/.272/.331/.479 - .338 babip - 4.1 war - 50.6% HH%

Player 5:  54/16/46/7/.248/.285/.406 - .298 baip - 2.4 war - 35.3% HH%

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I still argue Witt is in the discussion.  More than Kwan and Pena at least.

Player 1:  56/10/30/3/.257/.362/.451 - .289 babip - 4.0 war - 38.4% HH%

Player 2:  69/20/70/26/.248/.290/.443 - .281 babip - 2.1 war - 40.1% HH%

Player 3:  67/3/37/12/.295/.369/.384 - .323 babip - 3.0 war - 20.3% HH%

Player 4:  73/23/67/24/.272/.331/.479 - .338 babip - 4.1 war - 50.6% HH%

Player 5:  54/16/46/7/.248/.285/.406 - .298 baip - 2.4 war - 35.3% HH%

The only way Witt gets traction is with the old school stat guys that will reward a 20/20 season.

[CharmCityHokie]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

The only way Witt gets traction is with the old school stat guys that will reward a 20/20 season.

Witt's swing and miss and low OBP hasn't really surprised me, but his clunky defense is a bit of a shocker. I don't think it was ever assumed he'd be winning gold gloves one day, but he's been incredibly error-prone at SS. Granted, he's still on 22 and playing in the majors and that's an accomplishment in and of itself I guess. 

Edited September 6, 2022 by CharmCityHokie

[Just Regular]

When Mike Elias was in the booth Saturday night, he said Felix Bautista is a Rookie of the Year candidate.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Just Regular said:

When Mike Elias was in the booth Saturday night, he said Felix Bautista is a Rookie of the Year candidate.

If he’d been our closer all year he might have gotten some ROY consideration.   He’s been great, but his modest save total will keep him from serious consideration IMO.

[Sports Guy]

bWAR has Adley up to 4.6

fWAR has him at 4.1