Anthony Santander 2022

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

His career OPS+ is 106 and I think he's a 110-112 guy with mediocre trending to poor defense.

I'd rather not pay for more of that if I have a replacement in the line.

I'm sure we have a replacement in the line somewhere but I'm not sure we have a replacement in house for next April-June.   Certainly, Stowers will get AB's and Santander can get more DH AB's next year but Cowser, Kjerstad, Fabian, Beavers, are not going to be ready next April and only Cowser looks like a mid season promotion at this point for next year.    There is actually a lot more depth in the IF than the OF at this point.   Hanging onto Hays, Mullins, and Santander makes sense heading into next year.   Could Santander get injured or regress next year?   Of course?    Is he peak value right now?   Probably.    Is what we can get for him worth creating a hole in the OF?   Tough question.    It would be more easily answered if we knew what Stowers could be.

[orioles22]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

From what appears to be Elias's perspective, you'd look to trade Santander to reduce payroll, to create more opportunity for the outfield prospects in the system (a few of whom are certain to become major league stars) and to make room for a slugging, 30-plus HR outfielder who will be signed or traded for this off-season or next. Again from that perspective, the fact that Santander is having a real good season will increase his trade value, but doesn't much strengthen the case for keeping him since he's almost 28, has just two more years of team control, and is not likely to be better than the OFs Elias has drafted are going to be.

I disagree with the above, for whatever that's worth. I'd keep Santander for next season (as always, subject to a trade offer that is too good to turn down) and probably would try to spend some time in the off-season seeing whether he can be made into a decent first baseman.

I don't have a lot of confidence in the theory that we can replace a guy like Santander so easily. I don't trust Stowers to be that kind of player. I think Cowser is our best bet to be a solid major league outfielder. If we are going to start spending, I'd be happy with a four-year deal for a guy like Santander and then maybe one of our recently drafted players will be ready to step in.

[Jim'sKid26]

It all depends on who he brings back in a trade. 

If you get creative and package him with a prospect or two can you get a mid rotation starter? If you can, I think you pull the trigger. Once again, it's a salary manipulation problem. Should be an interesting off season.

[spiritof66]

3 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

I don't have a lot of confidence in the theory that we can replace a guy like Santander so easily. I don't trust Stowers to be that kind of player. I think Cowser is our best bet to be a solid major league outfielder. If we are going to start spending, I'd be happy with a four-year deal for a guy like Santander and then maybe one of our recently drafted players will be ready to step in.

I agree. I don't know whether Santander and Elias could agree on the length of an extension, but I definitely want to see him in an Oriole uniform for a few more years. And I'm not ready to give up on Hays, though I understand that may be an outlying opinion.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

From what appears to be Elias's perspective, you'd look to trade Santander to reduce payroll, to create more opportunity for the outfield prospects in the system (a few of whom are certain to become major league stars) and to make room for a slugging, 30-plus HR outfielder who will be signed or traded for this off-season or next. Again from that perspective, the fact that Santander is having a real good season will increase his trade value, but doesn't much strengthen the case for keeping him since he's almost 28, has just two more years of team control, and is not likely to be better than the OFs Elias has drafted are going to be.

I disagree with the above, for whatever that's worth. I'd keep Santander for next season (as always, subject to a trade offer that is too good to turn down) and probably would try to spend some time in the off-season seeing whether he can be made into a decent first baseman.

That sounds like taking a step backwards before we go forward given the extremely low chance that a prospect comes up and gives you 30 home runs in their rookie season.

Just curious, what prospect are we talking about Cowser, Stowers, Kjerstad?

Why would the Orioles and fans in particular be willing to sign up for this? This sounds like going around in an endless circle of getting rid of of good players to go cheap and never doing what it takes as an org to win titles. I’m not sure why so many fans are accepting/embracing this approach? Are we that starved to “win”? I hope those advocating this type of approach realize the novelty of winning but never truly being in championship contention will wear off/wear thin after a while. And we will have a very/even more apathetic fan base.

I for one am not interested in ownership hording cash and not investing in the team to do what it takes to win a World Series just see we can say we have a good, young, cheap team every year.

To each their own though. 

[RZNJ]

38 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I agree. I don't know whether Santander and Elias could agree on the length of an extension, but I definitely want to see him in an Oriole uniform for a few more years. And I'm not ready to give up on Hays, though I understand that may be an outlying opinion.

Why extend Santanders?   We have two more years if we want him.   He's not terrible in the OF but DH is his best spot under optimum conditions.   Also, his injury history.    See what he can do next year.   When Stowers, Cowser or whoever are ready to step in you see what you can get for him.    The next two years are likely to be two of the better ones of his career.   Take them but don't overcommit to him.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

That sounds like taking a step backwards before we go forward given the extremely low chance that a prospect comes up and gives you 30 home runs in their rookie season.

 

I think it's shortsighted just to look at the homeruns.

Santander also gives you a 304 career OBP and average at best defense.

Mountcastle hit 30 HR last year and folks were ready to dump him on the curb last week.  (that's a figure of speech folks)

[Just Regular]

41 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I agree. I don't know whether Santander and Elias could agree on the length of an extension, but I definitely want to see him in an Oriole uniform for a few more years. And I'm not ready to give up on Hays, though I understand that may be an outlying opinion.

I am a fan, but not in any hurry for the 3rd year from now.     I believe he's clearly one of our Top 9 bats for 2023, but he could be unseated for 2024 (never mind 2025!) depending on how Cowser-Stowers-Mayo-Norby do next year.

I don't believe that every decent player needs to be sold to re-seed even for as small a market Club as BAL if its 2023-24 teams are good enough to be relevant as I feel they are.

I hope he'll take okay to DH'ing more, as I'd guess Stowers or Cowser would rather easily outfield him, but he isn't Mancini bad if you want to cycle others through DH sometimes.    Maybe 75 DH, 75 OF next year?

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Chaka Garcia said:

Do we know that Santander will be the same player next year and stay healthy? 

It could be a big mistake falling in love with our own players and not being objective about the risk.  His value is high -if a team is will trade us young talented pitching- why not?

Elias isn't the type that trades for junk. 

 

No I do not have any assurance that his 2022 will be repeated in 2023. 

But I would pose this question, what are the other alternatives? Is counting on prospects (i.e. as spiritof66 suggested to replace his projection) a better bet?

Also, what young pitchers are you suggesting to trade for? Are you suggesting a Pablo Lopez or similar? If so, how much better is he than what we have? Do you believe that he is the type of #1 that we are currently lacking?

One more thing, if we trade Santander and remove his bat (from an offense that is already struggling to score runs against the better teams consistently), what would be the plan to replace his production?

Don't get me wrong, I'm not against trading players for pieces in the offseason and we will more certainly need to as there are only so many spots. But I very apprehensive of the approach of believing that we can bypass free agency and be able to be serious World Series contenders.

[Bemorewins]

48 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it's shortsighted just to look at the homeruns.

Santander also gives you a 304 career OBP and average at best defense.

Mountcastle hit 30 HR last year and folks were ready to dump him on the curb last week.  (that's a figure of speech folks)

I wouldn’t be too quick discard the value of home runs in and of themselves especially in this lower run environment.

I absolutely love Adley and his high obp skills but if no one is able to put bat to ball to make the type of meaningful contact that allows him to cross home plate, then we will just continually be frustrated with runners stranded on base.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I wouldn’t be too quick discard the value of home runs in and of themselves especially in this lower run environment.

I absolutely love Adley and his high obp skills but if no one is able to put bat to ball to make the type of meaningful contact that allows him to cross home plate, then we will just continually be frustrated with runners stranded on base.

I don't think I'm discarding the value of homeruns as you are overstating their value.

The goal of the batter is to not make outs.

Historically Santander makes lot of outs.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think I'm discarding the value of homeruns as you are overstating their value.

The goal of the batter is to not make outs.

Historically Santander makes lot of outs.

I don’t disagree with what you are saying as his history has not be great or even good. But this year he has definitely been a much needed anchor in the middle of the order. 
 

He may be a late bloomer type of guy like a Nelson Cruz (maybe not as good with the contact skills or power production that Cruz produced in his prime years)? But maybe with a similar ark of growth in terms of being more of a “late bloomer”?

But I agree with your premise that home runs aren’t the end all and be all, as that was our offense’s fatal flaw during our last run of good teams from 12- 16. We were too home run reliant. But this is an even lower run environment then it was then. In 2022 baseball it seems like it is often the first team to 4 that wins. Though often it doesn’t even take that much especially in Camden now with the bigger dimensions.

[Sydnor]

22 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it's shortsighted just to look at the homeruns.

Santander also gives you a 304 career OBP and average at best defense.

Mountcastle hit 30 HR last year and folks were ready to dump him on the curb last week.  (that's a figure of speech folks)

This is true if you believe in the career numbers, but I think you have to take a more nuanced approach with Santander because his development was disrupted by the rule 5 gymnastics that the prior regime performed to keep him around. This year he is swinging at less pitches outside the strike zone, swinging at less pitches inside the strike zone, and barreling the ball more frequently, as he is in the top 25 in MLB in barrel rate. He also fits the ballpark well as a switch hitter, allowing you to balance what will likely be a LHH hitter heavy lineup in the future.

The question is whether Santander is continuing to improve. I think he is. If you look at the historical numbers this season looks like a bit of an outlier. There are arguments for either position. I think you could get a four year deal with a team option done this off-season if you want to keep him for the long term. I personally would like to keep him around, but I understand why some might not want to sign that kind of a deal. I think Cowser will be good, but I’m not sure who else will fill the OF/DH slots because I’m not as high on Stowers.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

This is true if you believe in the career numbers, but I think you have to take a more nuanced approach with Santander because his development was disrupted by the rule 5 gymnastics that the prior regime performed to keep him around. This year he is swinging at less pitches outside the strike zone, swinging at less pitches inside the strike zone, and barreling the ball more frequently, as he is in the top 25 in MLB in barrel rate. He also fits the ballpark well as a switch hitter, allowing you to balance what will likely be a LHH hitter heavy lineup in the future.

The question is whether Santander is continuing to improve. I think he is. If you look at the historical numbers this season looks like a bit of an outlier. There are arguments for either position. I think you could get a four year deal with a team option done this off-season if you want to keep him for the long term. I personally would like to keep him around, but I understand why some might not want to sign that kind of a deal. I think Cowser will be good, but I’m not sure who else will fill the OF/DH slots because I’m not as high on Stowers.

This year looks a lot like 2020 to me.  And we had 2021 with a 93 OPS+ and a 286 OBP in between 2020 and 2022.  I think it is very possible that 2023 looks more like 2021.

He's 28 the odds of him improving on offense from here on out aren't great.

However odds are good his defense is going to continue to decline. 

[Aristotelian]

22 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it's shortsighted just to look at the homeruns.

Santander also gives you a 304 career OBP and average at best defense.

Mountcastle hit 30 HR last year and folks were ready to dump him on the curb last week.  (that's a figure of speech folks)

His OBP is up this year (K% is down). Has double his walks total from last year and still going, including a huge one last night. Seems to be growing as a hitter, unlike Mountcastle.