The worst possible outcome

[alexei606]

I absolutely agree with Tony about the Rays catching lightening in the bottle. The Rays were very lucky to catch the old Yanks and the injured BoSox in the same year. That is why the O's must go toe to toe with the Sox on Tex - they must get Tex - he is the domino player that will have the other good to very good to great players sign with the O's.

If Angelos cares about his legacy, he will sign Tex.

[Fla_O'sfan]

Sorry, but Tampa caught lightening in the bottle where the Yankees got old and had to pay for bad contracts and the Red Sox had some injuries and weren't able to put it all together. The other teams don't play in the AL East and any team can get hot in the playoffs and beat any other team. The Yankees just went out and got the top two pitchers on the market, they are back. the Red Sox will probably sign Teixeira. We will probably end up resigning Kevin Millar.

I'll bet the Rays come back to earth in a hurry in 2009 and when the Red Sox and Yankees are signing Kazmir, Price, and Longoria when they become free agents, we'll see how Tampa recovers.

If the Yankees and Red Sox are planning on signing Longoria, Kazmir, etc, they'll have a long wait because, unlike the Orioles, the Rays have been busy locking up their young talent. Having said that, I don't see the Orioles competing in the AL East this year, next year, or anytime in the distant fututre. Too many holes, not enough emerging talent, and not much of a player in the FA market.

[hoosiers]

Sorry, but Tampa caught lightening in the bottle where the Yankees got old and had to pay for bad contracts and the Red Sox had some injuries and weren't able to put it all together. The other teams don't play in the AL East and any team can get hot in the playoffs and beat any other team. The Yankees just went out and got the top two pitchers on the market, they are back. the Red Sox will probably sign Teixeira. We will probably end up resigning Kevin Millar.

I'll bet the Rays come back to earth in a hurry in 2009 and when the Red Sox and Yankees are signing Kazmir, Price, and Longoria when they become free agents, we'll see how Tampa recovers.

You know I love you, Tony, but the above is too much.

Tampa had a good number of injuries too - Baldelli, Crawford, Kazmir - during parts of the season. Longoria missed the early part of the season and Price missed virtually the entire season. Tampa's productivity may fall off some, but they have so many young guys on the upswing. Tampa also could spend some $ and fill some holes this offseason - just like the NYY are doing.

Finally, that's quite a crystal ball you have showing the BoSox and NYY signing Kazmir, Price and Longoria when they become free agents. There are plenty of teams with large payrolls out there - including Mets, Dodgers, Angels and others who currently already have large payrolls or are spending $ on other priorities this particular offseason - that could be reasonable destinations for these players by the time they become free agents. Finally, as we have seen in recent years by the trades of Santana, Bedard and Haren, these players could produce a huge return in prospects through trade and enable TB to continue it's winning ways.

[clarence]

Tampa can stay competitive because they have a lot of talent that they can keep rotating. Crawford could land them a very nice haul in a couple of years. Down the road, Kazmir is worth a Bedard size package, Garza probably just going to get better, Price is around for six years, and they've got pitching in the minors. Teams are so desperate for pitching that their fifth best starter, Sonnastine, could land them a nice couple prospects, right now.

The only way the O's, Rays, and Jays are going to be able to compete is stockpile so much talent that they are willing to trade the best of them for huge packages (see Bedard trade) when the time comes. They are going to have to be smart about looking long-term and make the tough decision (something like us trading Markakis for a big package after another season). It is the only way to get enough young talent that you can continuosly replace the players that have now decided that there are only four or five free agent destinations. It is going to be interesting to see how the Rays play the deck of cards they have right now, because it is something we will probably evaluate a few years after them to see how it worked.

[OregonBird]

I hear a lot of people on here basically saying "why does he care if its $20M/yr or $2XM/yr its only a few $M difference and when you're that rich it doesn't matter." He has every right to make that choice. If he wants to swim around in a vault of money like Scrooge McDuck that's his right. He can set up his family for generations and do whatever he wants with all the money whether its starting a business or starting a charitable foundation.

Don't be angry w/Tex b/c of the position the Orioles put themselves in. For years this team decided to maximize profits by making the team just respectible enough to put butts in the seat while keeping them bad enough to suckle up to the tit of revenue sharing. The O's are in this position b/c of a decade of mismanagement and now it is going to cost them.

If they want to turn it around they will have to come out aggressive, fighting on every front. They'll have to spend, spend, spend on scouting and development. They'll have to WOW the free agents that make sense by paying above market.

[Moose Milligan]

I hear a lot of people on here basically saying "why does he care if its $20M/yr or $2XM/yr its only a few $M difference and when you're that rich it doesn't matter." He has every right to make that choice. If he wants to swim around in a vault of money like Scrooge McDuck that's his right. He can set up his family for generations and do whatever he wants with all the money whether its starting a business or starting a charitable foundation.

Don't be angry w/Tex b/c of the position the Orioles put themselves in. For years this team decided to maximize profits by making the team just respectible enough to put butts in the seat while keeping them bad enough to suckle up to the tit of revenue sharing. The O's are in this position b/c of a decade of mismanagement and now it is going to cost them.

If they want to turn it around they will have to come out aggressive, fighting on every front. They'll have to spend, spend, spend on scouting and development. They'll have to WOW the free agents that make sense by paying above market.

Perfect post! Perfect post!!

[section36]

Sorry, but Tampa caught lightening in the bottle where the Yankees got old and had to pay for bad contracts and the Red Sox had some injuries and weren't able to put it all together. The other teams don't play in the AL East and any team can get hot in the playoffs and beat any other team. The Yankees just went out and got the top two pitchers on the market, they are back. the Red Sox will probably sign Teixeira. We will probably end up resigning Kevin Millar.

I'll bet the Rays come back to earth in a hurry in 2009 and when the Red Sox and Yankees are signing Kazmir, Price, and Longoria when they become free agents, we'll see how Tampa recovers.

Yeah, I'm sorry Tony, but I have to respectfully disagree with this. I agree with most of what you've said in this thread, but I can't get on board with this.

Longoria is under the Rays control until after the 1016 season. That's 8 more years of Evan in the middle of Tampa's lineup. Shields is under control for the next 6 years, Price and Garza are under control for at least the next 5 years, and Kazmir the next 4. They've got an awfully nice long-term window here, and with their additional pitching depth in the minors, I just don't see them going away anytime soon.

[TonySoprano]

I'll bet the Rays come back to earth in a hurry in 2009 and when the Red Sox and Yankees are signing Kazmir, Price, and Longoria when they become free agents, we'll see how Tampa recovers.

I'm not sure this is the example you want to use, big guy. TB has options on the first two of Longoria's free agent years. They didn't wait until after his third year to start throwing out serious numbers like the Orioles are only now starting to do with Markakis. Roberts could be in pinstripes or Red Sox colors in 2010 because we didn't lock him up a couple years ago. I wonder if we catch lightning in a bottle before either of them leave.

[Mad Mark]

The Yankees won 9 of the first 11 American League pennants after the modern Orioles joined the American League in 1954.

If only there'd been an OH then, I can just imagine the hand-wringing and take-my-ball-home-and-sit-on-it-posts that would fill the board.

Check the number of different teams to win the World Series over the decades:

1900's = 5 (6 WS)

1910's = 5

1920's = 7

1930's = 5

1940's = 5

1950's = 4

1960's = 7

1970's = 6

1980's = 9

1990's = 6 (nine WS)

2000's = 8 (nine WS)

No crying in baseball.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again...like, right now: given the disparity in revenues between the Yankee$ and all other American League teams (even the Red $ox, though they've closed a lot of the gap) the only times the Yankee$ ever should (and historically, ever have) not win the American League (or currently, the AL East), is when Yankee$ ownership is either clueless (CBS period) or insane (early and late period George III...and hopefully under Hamfisted Hank).

Sure, there may be a season here or there where Lady Luck decides to trip 'em up, but--absent rot at the top--with the financials as lopsided as they are, the Yankee$ should never lose. Ever.*

The thing of wonder was not the 26 World Championships they purchased. The thing of wonder was that they didn't sweep up about 50 more.

*Allowances have to be made for short-series aberrations in the current playoff format, but over the course of a season, a well-run team with the Yankee$ resources should be invincible.

[Boy Howdy]

I've said this before, and I'll say it again...like, right now: given the disparity in revenues between the Yankee$ and all other American League teams (even the Red $ox, though they've closed a lot of the gap) the only times the Yankee$ ever should (and historically, ever have) not win the American League (or currently, the AL East), is when Yankee$ ownership is either clueless (CBS period) or insane (early and late period George III...and hopefully under Hamfisted Hank).

Sure, there may be a season here or there where Lady Luck decides to trip 'em up, but--absent rot at the top--with the financials as lopsided as they are, the Yankee$ should never lose. Ever.*

The thing of wonder was not the 26 World Championships they purchased. The thing of wonder was that they didn't sweep up about 50 more.

*Allowances have to be made for short-series aberrations in the current playoff format, but over the course of a season, a well-run team with the Yankee$ resources should be invincible.

The core of the Yankees team that won four World Series in five years from 1996-2000 was home grown: Jeter, Mariano, Bernie, Pettitte, Posada

Tino, O'Neill, Brosius, Jeff Nelson. Those guys came in savvy trades, not overwhelming free agent dollars.

Since 2000, the Yankees have gone out and bought Mussina, Giambi, Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano & taken on A-Rod's contract --just to name a few moves--- and no titles to show for it.

Talk about playoff crapshoots all you want. Yankees fans don't want to hear it.

Everybody here in NY seems to think Sabathia is a lock to opt out after three years when the economy should be better suited to make his West Coast NL dreams come true. No Yankees fan I talk to thinks the Burnett signing was a good move for them. They dropped the ball when they failed to pull the trigger on the Santana deal last winter, and now they're trying (and failing IMO) to overcompensate for it.

The more they spend, the more I smile. I remember the 80's all too well.

[geschinger]

I hear a lot of people on here basically saying "why does he care if its $20M/yr or $2XM/yr its only a few $M difference and when you're that rich it doesn't matter." He has every right to make that choice. If he wants to swim around in a vault of money like Scrooge McDuck that's his right. He can set up his family for generations and do whatever he wants with all the money whether its starting a business or starting a charitable foundation.

Don't be angry w/Tex b/c of the position the Orioles put themselves in. For years this team decided to maximize profits by making the team just respectible enough to put butts in the seat while keeping them bad enough to suckle up to the tit of revenue sharing. The O's are in this position b/c of a decade of mismanagement and now it is going to cost them.

If they want to turn it around they will have to come out aggressive, fighting on every front. They'll have to spend, spend, spend on scouting and development. They'll have to WOW the free agents that make sense by paying above market.

To be fair though, Teix is an public figure in the spotlight. Fans have just as much a right to dislike a particular player for any reason as Teix does to sign as lucrative a contract as possible.

[clarence]

Yes, there have been a lot of teams win the WS over the past few decades, but the almost guaranteed constant has been the ALEast is going to send two teams to the playoffs and those two teams are almost always the same. I think the point about parity can be argued by all of baseball, but not those in the ALEast. Time will tell what the Rays can do, but I wouldn't bet on them.

The whole situation with baseball adding a team in DC, that was obviously going to have a negative impact on a team that competes in the ALEast, is beyond ridiculous. MASN or not, I'd like to see another owner that would allow a team to move in next door if he was already trying to compete with the yanks and bosox every year. It absolutely was going to impact Orioles attendance and we probably won't know how much until we see a winner on the field again, and wonder why attendance isn't matching the mid-90's teams.

As much as I hate it, I think we are still years away from being a true threat. A lot of people look to 2010 when hopefully the Big 3 are ready to join the rotation, but cutting your teeth in the ALEast isn't going to be easy. And, that's assuming the 3 all make it. I'm willing to be patient, but the O's are in a gunfight with a pocket knife.

[Mad Mark]

The core of the Yankees team that won four World Series in five years from 1996-2000 was home grown: Jeter, Mariano, Bernie, Pettitte, Posada

Tino, O'Neill, Brosius, Jeff Nelson. Those guys came in savvy trades, not overwhelming free agent dollars.

Since 2000, the Yankees have gone out and bought Mussina, Giambi, Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano & taken on A-Rod's contract --just to name a few moves--- and no titles to show for it.

Talk about playoff crapshoots all you want. Yankees fans don't want to hear it.

Everybody here in NY seems to think Sabathia is a lock to opt out after three years when the economy should be better suited to make his West Coast NL dreams come true. No Yankees fan I talk to thinks the Burnett signing was a good move for them. They dropped the ball when they failed to pull the trigger on the Santana deal last winter, and now they're trying (and failing IMO) to overcompensate for it.

The more they spend, the more I smile. I remember the 80's all too well.

That core was grown while George III was on the 18-month vacation known as his second "lifetime" ban from baseball. (See reference to "clueless or insane" in my post you quoted.)

[Mad Mark]

I'm willing to be patient, but the O's are in a gunfight with a pocket knife.

Actually, they're in a gunfight armed with a fox that they're trying to convince to pee on the people with the guns. :rofl:

[OregonBird]

To be fair though, Teix is an public figure in the spotlight. Fans have just as much a right to dislike a particular player for any reason as Teix does to sign as lucrative a contract as possible.

True. Fans can love him or hate him for whatever reason.

Personally I couldn't hate some player for the sole reason that he didn't want to come play for a franchise that has shown little, if any, signs of life in a division that is the toughest in baseball.