Gunnar Henderson 2022

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Perhaps in May or June we see Gunnar if he keeps playing well, but him making the opening day roster is unlikely unless Elias changes his approach on promoting prospects to the Orioles. 

While I agree with the logic you are using I think the logic may change in the near term.

[Just Regular]

Adley at 60 PA - 430 OPS

Tork April - 660 OPS     (May 650, Jun 300, ruh roh?)

Julio April - 544 OPS

Witt April - 558 OPS     (we'll see this weekend if he can correct his bad June after a good May)

Organizations can control Month1 with deployment decisions, and when the first 100 of the 1000 plate appearances of acclimating occur.

Not everyone can be such a light hitter as Steven Kwan that pitchers really don't care much early on.    I suppose every Oriole can have Astros-adjacent Jeremy Pena player development strategies and break in at 24.5 years old.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

While I agree with the logic you are using I think the logic may change in the near term.

I think the approach to promoting prospects will change too, but it won't be at the start of the 2023 season. 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I think the approach to promoting prospects will change too, but it won't be at the start of the 2023 season. 

Could be sooner.

[Just Regular]

First we need to see the mid-summer months but certainly if these thoroughbreds sustain, whether or not they get the official Austin Hays-Ryan Mountcastle 120-129 #FarmRankings major league PA will be a powerful Late 2022 indicator of Elias' hopes for the 2023 team.

At the maximum giddiness setting, two other young high school bats with similar draft pedigree who made it big were Murray and Ripken.    So far this looks like what you hope for when you dissuade a high school graduate from committing three years of their baseball life to campus.

I feel like some of the dual promotion was to reset the nightly scoreboard stats to zeroes and see if Westburg can stay with him in this leg of the race.

[Filmstudy]

Gunnar Henderson 

2021 56 BB in 463 PA for a 12.1% BB rate, 4.102 P/PA

2022 49 BB in 235 PA for a 20.9% BB rate, 4.179 P/PA

Incredible to me that there would be such a small difference in P/PA that resulted in the big increase in BB rate.

[sportsfan8703]

19 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

Gunnar Henderson 

2021 56 BB in 463 PA for a 12.1% BB rate, 4.102 P/PA

2022 49 BB in 235 PA for a 20.9% BB rate, 4.179 P/PA

Incredible to me that there would be such a small difference in P/PA that resulted in the big increase in BB rate.

It tells me that when he walks they are basically glorified pitch arounds, and when they actually do pitch to him he’s doing big time damage. He must not be in a lot of 0-2, 1-2 counts. 

[OriolesMagic83]

18 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It tells me that when he walks they are basically glorified pitch arounds, and when they actually do pitch to him he’s doing big time damage. He must not be in a lot of 0-2, 1-2 counts. 

His walk rate has been amazing.  He must be very selective at bat.  Elias has probably got a couple staffers researching what he needs to work on in April 2023.

[Frobby]

Posting this Eric Longenhagen quote in two threads so nobody misses it:

 

“Gunnar Henderson has moved from the 50 FV tier into the 55s, as he’s cut his strikeout rate almost in half while walking more than he has punched out at Double-A Bowie ahead of a promotion to Triple-A. If we look under the hood, Henderson’s pitch selection appears even more impressive, as he’s only swinging at pitches in the strike zone that he can damage, often letting strikes on the outer third of the zone go past him early in the count. There are scouts and analysts convinced he can play shortstop for at least a little while, though I still have him projected as a plus third baseman. He’s now a top 25 prospect in baseball for me based largely on the improvements he’s made on the offensive end, improvements that have curbed the fear that may have popped up from his 2021 Double-A stint of him striking out at a worrying clip.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tuesday-prospect-notes-a-few-top-100-tweaks/

[Tony-OH]

On 6/8/2022 at 10:40 PM, RZNJ said:

Where's your sense of humor, Tony?  He had like a .198 OPS against LHP's this year and you did say it looked like he was not looking to do damage against them.  It's only 1 AB, but he certainly did some damage on that pitch.  

 

I have a great sense of humor. I just don't see how making comments like that are helpful. it's a snide comment that attempts to make the previous analysis, analysis backed with facts, and tries to make it out like it was wrong. 

I never said he couldn't hit left-handers. I said he's struggled against them so far in his career and was mostly looking for walks and not driving the ball against them in AA. 

[Tony-OH]

On 6/12/2022 at 6:45 PM, Filmstudy said:

Gunnar Henderson 

2021 56 BB in 463 PA for a 12.1% BB rate, 4.102 P/PA

2022 49 BB in 235 PA for a 20.9% BB rate, 4.179 P/PA

Incredible to me that there would be such a small difference in P/PA that resulted in the big increase in BB rate.

Henderson's jump this year when it comes to his swing decisions has been nothing short of amazing. He really has done a great job of swinging at pitches he can do damage on while limiting being fooled. 

I'm not sure I've ever seen a prospect make this kind of jump in plate discipline while hitting for average and power. Henderson's break out this year has really put him on the map as a top 25 prospect in all of baseball and I wouldn't doubt if he's in the top 10 by year's end if he finishes strong in AAA this year.

[btdart20]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Posting this Eric Longenhagen quote in two threads so nobody misses it:

 

“Gunnar Henderson has moved from the 50 FV tier into the 55s, as he’s cut his strikeout rate almost in half while walking more than he has punched out at Double-A Bowie ahead of a promotion to Triple-A. If we look under the hood, Henderson’s pitch selection appears even more impressive, as he’s only swinging at pitches in the strike zone that he can damage, often letting strikes on the outer third of the zone go past him early in the count. There are scouts and analysts convinced he can play shortstop for at least a little while, though I still have him projected as a plus third baseman. He’s now a top 25 prospect in baseball for me based largely on the improvements he’s made on the offensive end, improvements that have curbed the fear that may have popped up from his 2021 Double-A stint of him striking out at a worrying clip.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tuesday-prospect-notes-a-few-top-100-tweaks/

It's always nice to have some national pub/recognition.  The tweaks are reflected in the updated Board.  But I have to roll my eyes when guys like Volpe and Abel are still relatively high.  Plus, a guy like Pratto is ranked 50 while Vinnie Pasquantino is ranked 96.  The 1-year age different really can't cover that imbalance.  On a list like this, I would have also expected to have seen a little slide from Cowser as well.  Thanks for posting.

2022 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

 

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Henderson's jump this year when comes to his swing decisions has been nothing short of amazing. He really has done a great job of swinging at pitches he can do damage on while limiting being fooled. 

I'm not sure I've ever seen a prospect make this kind of jump in plate discipline while hitting for average and power. Henderson's break out this year he really put him on the map as a top 25 prospect in all of baseball and I would doubt if he's in the top 10 by year's end if he finishes strong in AAA this year.

Agreed.  Makes me wonder how to clone that type of adjustment?!  It would be awesome to see a big-time power guy like Mayo be able to make those same type of adjustments!

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Henderson's jump this year when comes to his swing decisions has been nothing short of amazing. He really has done a great job of swinging at pitches he can do damage on while limiting being fooled. 

I'm not sure I've ever seen a prospect make this kind of jump in plate discipline while hitting for average and power. Henderson's break out this year he really put him on the map as a top 25 prospect in all of baseball and I would doubt if he's in the top 10 by year's end if he finishes strong in AAA this year.

That's a good analysis/rundown.  Seeing someone that young at these levels make adjustments that big is impressive and, IMO, something that should separate an elite prospect from the pack.

[Aristotelian]

11 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

It's always nice to have some national pub/recognition.  The tweaks are reflected in the updated Board.  But I have to roll my eyes when guys like Volpe and Abel are still relatively high.  Plus, a guy like Pratto is ranked 50 while Vinnie Pasquantino is ranked 96.  The 1-year age different really can't cover that imbalance.  On a list like this, I would have also expected to have seen a little slide from Cowser as well.  Thanks for posting.

2022 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

 

Wow, that list has him above Jeremy Pena who is having quite a solid start to his MLB career. If Pena is his ceiling that would be an amazing outcome.