Minor league promotions/movement 2022

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

13 minutes ago, interloper said:

Maybe he was held back to work on his conditioning, in which case, good! 

Anyway, I can only talk about Creed Willems so much. He's a dude they hope mashes some taters, not the second coming of Adley. 

Creed Willems has Adley Rutschman's seal of approval.

 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

I think the round in which he was selected is a lot less relevant than the amount for which he signed.  As I understand it, the preceding Orioles picks and associated savings are what enabled them to entice him to sign and forego college.  Whether the strategy was bad or not remains to be seen.

I ask myself, if he's a second round talent why didn't some team just pop him in the second round and pay him slot?

To me you have to discount it a bit.  You are overpaying when the current talent level when you overslot.  So he was maybe a top part of the third round talent that they paid up for to get in the eighth.

Which isn't necessarily a bad thing and there can be very little differentiation between the second and third rounds.

But I don't want to say they paid him a million so he should be rated the same as if he was the 66th pick.

[Hazmat]

39 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I ask myself, if he's a second round talent why didn't some team just pop him in the second round and pay him slot?

To me you have to discount it a bit.  You are overpaying when the current talent level when you overslot.  So he was maybe a top part of the third round talent that they paid up for to get in the eighth.

Which isn't necessarily a bad thing and there can be very little differentiation between the second and third rounds.

But I don't want to say they paid him a million so he should be rated the same as if he was the 66th pick.

That's a mystery to me.  Perhaps most teams saw his commitment to college as firm and didn't value him up to the amount that it would take to sign him.  I know the O's brought him to Camden Yards and had him hit.  I don't know if he did that with any other teams so perhaps the O's liked him more than other teams.

[LookinUp]

59 minutes ago, bobmc said:

Yep Kyle Schwarber lite.  Lots of fun to see if it works.  As long as we spend all of the allotment we are happy, amirite?  

Interesting comp just because of body type. Schwarber has become much more trim over the years. Hopefully that's how Willems matures too.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, LookinUp said:

Interesting comp just because of body type. Schwarber has become much more trim over the years. Hopefully that's how Willems matures too.

He was also drafted as a Catcher.

 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

That's a mystery to me.  Perhaps most teams saw his commitment to college as firm and didn't value him up to the amount that it would take to sign him.  I know the O's brought him to Camden Yards and had him hit.  I don't know if he did that with any other teams so perhaps the O's liked him more than other teams.

It seems obvious that they valued him more than other teams did. You could say the same thing about Baumler, Mayo, Rhodes, and other O's overslots.    If there were no price tag attached to Willems and he wasn't attached to a college,  would he have been a 3rd rounder? 4th?  Who knows?  Bottom line, the O's thought he was worth 1 million.  Means they saw something they liked.   Aside from injuries, their draft valuations look pretty solid so far.  Let's hope we can put Willems in the plus  column.   BTW, we all know there are countless prospects signed for more who never make it at all.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I don't think that's necessarily the case, that he got beat out.  Trendon Craig also didn't make a full season team. Nor relievers, Gillies, Pham, and mystery man Dylan Heid.  Christian Cespedes and Dylan Harris also were left behind.  

I suspect, if neither Brayan Hernandez or Mantecon are hurt that we should take it as a positive that Willems was promoted.  Also, as we're seeing with guys like Ramirez and Deson, who excelled in the FCL, the jump from FCL to low A is the toughest bump in the minors.  I am not going out on a limb if I guess that there are very few 19 year olds doing well in the South Atlantic league. Go Creed!

None of the players you mentioned "left behind" are $1 million signing bonus players and none were real prospects. 

But, I agree with your last statement, Go Creed. All he can do is go out and perform and put any concerns to rest.

[RZNJ]

34 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

None of the players you mentioned "left behind" are $1 million signing bonus players and none were real prospects. 

But, I agree with your last statement, Go Creed. All he can do is go out and perform and put any concerns to rest.

You have the same concern with Baumler, right?  Assume the worst?  Must not be any good if they didn't start the year with Delmarva.  You could be right but my inclination in this case is to believe that Wiilems actually did hit his way out of extended spring. I wouldn't have thought it odd if a 19 yo catcher who barely played last year repeated the FCL this year.  This is a nice surprise for me.  

 

Michael Ciuffo was a first round pick out of HS by the Ray's. He spent two years in rookie ball before playing a full season at age 20 in low A.  I bet it's not that out of the norm, particularly for a HS catching prospect. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

The Shorebirds catchers are abysmal currently. I'm not sure how bad he was this spring to have them beat him out, but hopefully he's improved. Guess we'll see.

You mean a .275 OPS and .368 OPS are abysmal?

Both the current catchers are at least 16 months older than Willems and had more FCL time last year, so perhaps that’s why they got first crack.   They’ve certainly set the bar low.   At least Hernandez has thrown out 4 of 12 stealing; Montecon is 0 for 12 in that department.   We’re definitely not talking Pudge Rodriguez and Yadier Molina here.

 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, RZNJ said:

You have the same concern with Baumler, right?  Assume the worst?  Must not be any good if they didn't start the year with Delmarva.  You could be right but my inclination in this case is to believe that Wiilems actually did hit his way out of extended spring. I wouldn't have thought it odd if a 19 yo catcher who barely played last year repeated the FCL this year.  This is a nice surprise for me.  

 

Michael Ciuffo was a first round pick out of HS by the Ray's. He spent two years in rookie ball before playing a full season at age 20 in low A.  I bet it's not that out of the norm, particularly for a HS catching prospect. 

I've been rarely wrong when these situations occur. BTW, no offense, but you argued with me for years over Josh Hart. I tried to tell you early on, but you like to hold on to hope. That's your right as a fan.

The only thing that gives me a bit of pause is the total unpredictability and utlra conservative approach that Elias/Matt Blood use for their development of players. 

Saying that, 19-year olds that are not ready for Low-A ball are typically not going to end up prospects. That was MLB's entire philoshopy for gettting rid of short season leagues like the Appalacian and NY-Penn Leagues. 

Now again, I'm not saying Creed is not a prospect because of this, I'm saying its CONCERNING that he was unable to make a full season club out of spring training, especially when the catchers they sent don't beleong there in any other capacity then as occasional backups and to catch bullpens.

I've explained my reasoning for Baumler multiple times so no need to explain it again. 

[RZNJ]

No one is arguing that Creed Willems is a future ML all-star, only that not starting the season at Delmarva is not necessarily the mark of death stamped on him by the organization.  Anyone would rarely be wrong betting against anyone picked after the 1st round making it whether they started A ball at 19 or 20.  Josh Hart, I  don't believe,  even made AA. I'll take that hit.  Your memory is too good, Tony!!  lol

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

No one is arguing that Creed Willems is a future ML all-star, only that not starting the season at Delmarva is not necessarily the mark of death stamped on him by the organization.  Anyone would rarely be wrong betting against anyone picked after the 1st round making it whether they started A ball at 19 or 20.  Josh Hart, I  don't believe,  even made AA. I'll take that hit.  Your memory is too good, Tony!!  lol

Only when he’s right!  

[Legend_Of_Joey]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

You mean a .275 OPS and .368 OPS are abysmal?

Both the current catchers are at least 16 months older than Willems and had more FCL time last year, so perhaps that’s why they got first crack.   They’ve certainly set the bar low.   At least Hernandez has thrown out 4 of 12 stealing; Montecon is 0 for 12 in that department.   We’re definitely not talking Pudge Rodriguez and Yadier Molina here.

 

 

 

The next Chance Sisco’s!

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, RZNJ said:

No one is arguing that Creed Willems is a future ML all-star, only that not starting the season at Delmarva is not necessarily the mark of death stamped on him by the organization.  Anyone would rarely be wrong betting against anyone picked after the 1st round making it whether they started A ball at 19 or 20.  Josh Hart, I  don't believe,  even made AA. I'll take that hit.  Your memory is too good, Tony!!  lol

Who said it was "mark of death" or that he was not a prospect because of not making a full season club? I said it was concerning that he was not able to beat out the guys selected over him. 

Sometimes I think people over react when I say "yellow flags" or concerns. Concerns are just that, things that I want to keep an eye on to see if they become "red flags". 

We'll know more once we see how he performs. 

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Only when he’s right!  

lol... Nah, I remember my fails as well. Luis Jimenez, Radhmas Liz, Chance Sisco (though I did jump off his badwagon faster than others) were all guys I saw personally and ranked top ten at some point. I would say Billy Rowell, but honestly once I saw him live a bit, I dropped him before most others and by Frederick, I was convinced he was not a prospect.

I mean, it's not like I argued that Jeff Fiorentino was a prospect after Syd ridiculously jumped him from High-A to the big leagues.