Jorge Mateo

[Just Regular]

For years I've regarded the Opening Day shortstop as a proxy for how Elias assesses the team.

The 2023 market lacks info until after the World Series who is in it in a couple important cases.   The rest of this summer we'll see if the Club confers >50% shortstop games on either Henderson or Westburg.

Mateo a reasonable tryout while you are marking time, but very long odds to be one of the planet's 30-40 best SS options next spring.    Today Gunnar might be #11 or #33 or a third baseman.

If Adley and Grayson lead a magic carpet ride the next two months, not kidding about whether Yusniel Diaz and Dean Kremer are enough to rent Xander Bogaerts.    That magic carpet would push the 2022 Red Sox into the 2018 Orioles basket.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s fine..but he’s not a starter.  The goal should be to find better.

I assume you are talking about for the longer term — not trying to trade for a better option in-season.  At this point, I’d rather let Mateo have the exposure this year and see how he does.  Chances are will will want a better option for next year, but we may as well give him his shot this year now that we’re 43 games in.  

[foxfield]

17 minutes ago, interloper said:

I love his defense this year. Kind of don't care about his offense until a SS prospect is really banging on the door at AAA, which none are at this point. 

I think we are entering a phase where there will be an increase in the sense of urgency.  I am fine with Mateo at SS and he is not without talent.  But he isn't a SS on a competitive team and so he will need to step up or we need to identify a replacement.  I mean this is a good thing, and I really don't disagree with what you are saying, but we can't really just wait indefinitely to grow a competitive 26 player team.  The clock has started.

[jamalshw]

I'm a fan of Mateo and maybe higher on him than some. To me, he's not a guy you write in to be the SS in 2023, but I don't know if I hate him as the starter at SS and batting ninth if you solve 2B and 3B with better options than we've seen so far. All that said...

Ideally, I would LOVE if the Orioles addressed SS with a Correa, Bogaerts or Turner in the offseason, went with Henderson at 3B and then left 2B to be a competition with Urias, Mateo, Westburg, etc. Urias and Mateo are both guys that likely fit better in a bench role, but if either (not both) is the weakest link in the lineup, hitting at the bottom, I don't see that as a terrible thing. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I assume you are talking about for the longer term — not trying to trade for a better option in-season.  At this point, I’d rather let Mateo have the exposure this year and see how he does.  Chances are will will want a better option for next year, but we may as well give him his shot this year now that we’re 43 games in.  

I would have zero issue with them trying to obtain a better option at any point.  Until then and assuming they keep guys like Westburg and Henderson in the minors, I would play Mateo.

[Frobby]

 

On 5/13/2022 at 10:34 AM, Frobby said:

Your formulation is fine with me.  Give him the chance to show what he can do.  At the end of the season, we’ll be in a better position to assess whether he’s a long term piece.   He’s outperformed expectations so far, but will he do that over 162 games?   Is he this year’s Cedric Mullins, or this year’s David Newhan?   Time will tell.

After 1/5 of the season, he’s at 1.1 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR.   Annualizung that, 5.5 rWAR, 3.5 fWAR.  The difference between the two is mostly how they evaluate defense.  But even 3.5 WAR is an above average player.   Can he do that over 162 games?   I’d say the odds are against it, but he deserves the chance to prove what he can do with the steady playing time he’s getting.   

 

On 5/13/2022 at 11:48 AM, Frobby said:

Well, you need to consider that the league OPS is only .666 right now.  It hasn’t been a normal year so far.  That’s why his OPS+ is 95.    We’ll see where things go as the year progresses.  

 

On 5/13/2022 at 12:22 PM, Frobby said:

I realize some people are probably overly enthusiastic about Mateo.  His hitting wasn’t bad for us last year offensively in a SSS, and hasn’t been bad so far this year either.   I agree that his MiL career is probably the most reliable guide.   He’s a .747 OPS guy in the minors.   For me that’s probably .700 - .710 in the majors as the most likely outcome, then adjusted for what’s going on league wide.   I think his .705 with us over 2021-22 is probably more indicative of his abilities than his .545 with the Padres in about half the number of at bats.   We’ll see what happens in a larger sample and with the league adjusting to him and vice versa.   

I’m revisiting this thread that was generating a lot of discussion about six weeks ago.   At the time, Mateo had 1.1 rWAR, on pace for 5.5 over a full season, and had a 95 OPS+, not bad for a SS.

Fast forward 6 weeks: Mateo is at 1.2 rWAR, 58 OPS+.   Basically he’s been a replacement level player over that six week stretch, which actually isn’t bad when you consider he has a .449 OPS in that six week period.   His defense has kept him from going into negative WAR territory over that stretch.  

My comment that “his .705 with us over 2021-22 is probably more indicative of his abilities than his .545 with the Padres” is looking pretty bad right now.  But seasons take their twists and turns.  I still think Mateo has another 30 games of rope before the O’s start thinking of other alternatives.   But he needs to get his act together.  

[RZNJ]

Yeah. Looked like he was doing a better job of laying off the breaking pitches but his plate coverage is terrible and he pulls off of everything.   He has ability but he needs to start going RF CF before it's too late.

[Just Regular]

Last week in the bad run I heard Palmer during one of his at-bats.    As a pitcher eyeing up a batter, he sounded baffled that he was so far off the plate AND his front hip was so wide open.    His take was no way he could cover the outside corner.     The other detail was he said some open hip batting stances close as a timing mechanism as the pitcher winds, but he didn't see Mateo doing that that at-bat.

He thought he should move forward even if it meant getting busted inside, which he supposed the setup was trying to avoid at all costs, except that to Palmer getting him out away seemed to be the simplest puzzle a MLB pitcher would ever encounter.

[AlbNYfan]

There are several ways to adjust..severely close his stance in hope when he "kicks the bucket" it will actually be more toward the pitcher. He could crowd the plate, taking away the inside pitch a bit...he just isn't comfortable at the plate. It's too bad, good glove, great speed, seems to be a team player...just a huge flaw. 

[Just Regular]

Glass Half Full....neither Adley nor Mancini nor Santander (both regulars ~200 batted balls along) have been able to beat Mateo's YTD maxEV yet.    There's power as well as speed and defense, just bereft of that fundamental Hit tool.   He is still <500 MLB PA for whatever kind of Hitter he can grow into if he can acclimate at all.

The data for the tender decision this offseason I hope we get to see August-September is how his outfield play looks, and if adapting to a reserve role looks like a culture fit.   Guessing his Arb1 with all the stolen bases might go to like $1.5mm, and whether the 2023 Orioles have a marginal 750k for a promising reserve is kind of its own topic apart from whether it is Mateo or anybody else.   He also provides better cover than a Waiver Claim in case Gunnar "has something to work on".

Mateo balances a Vavra-Urias bench kind of the same way Mountcastle does the entire lineup.

The last 10 games of the year include Red Sox and Blue Jays series when they are likely to be scrumming with Central teams and the Rays for the last wildcard...I'm still hoping for a pair of Grayson starts and better infield lineups then.

[Moose Milligan]

What a fun player to watch. I know he’s not a long term answer but I almost wish he was. 

[OriolesMagic83]

I know Mateo got some good hits, but I feel like getting some extra base hits will just encourage him to flail away.  He'll end up w/ 180 K's and 8 HR.  Not a fair trade.  Needs to just try to get on base more.

[Frobby]

Much needed good day for Mateo.   Hopefully that takes some weight off his shoulders and shoulders and starts a hot streak.  Palmer snd Brown said it seemed Mateo had been more disciplined the last ten days or so, but I haven’t noticed that.   I’m just glad he hit with some authority.  

[foxfield]

I just keep hoping that he puts it all together.  He has some really nice tools...If he was an average hitter, he could have a really nice career.

[oriole]

Considering these comments from Kopech last night

“Definitely not trying to hit a guy with two strikes and two outs. Especially a guy who's not doing too much at the plate. Situation kind of escalated, but then it settled back in."

I was thrilled to see Mateo have a good game today. I’d love to see him turn into a long term option, even as a 9 hitter. Unfortunately the way he’s been hitting isn’t even good enough for that but I’m still holding out hope. A future IF of 2B Westburg, SS Mateo, 3B Henderson could be fun…but he does have to do better