Is the overslot strategy worth it?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

What an idiot. 

Im impressed you can spell idiot. ..or an for that matter.

Liar.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Im impressed you can spell idiot. ..or an for that matter.

Liar.

LOL.  Your lazy ass can't even find it on mlb?

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-s-top-150-draft-prospects-for-2022

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

LOL.  Your lazy ass can't even find it on mlb?

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-s-top-150-draft-prospects-for-2022

Yep.  I saw that and see Jones ranked #1 and a throw away comment that Green has the highest upside.

There is no context of the comment.  Is that Callis’ opinion?  What is based on?  Has he pulled 25 scouts and that is what they think?  Does Mayo agree with him?  Is that the opinion of all of MLB.com, like you insinuated? As I said, you are either lying or misrepresenting.  In this case, you are misrepresenting.  You didn’t say Callis believes he has the highest ceiling.  You said mlb said it.  MLB is comprised of many writers.  And your evidence isn’t anything more than a throw away comment with no context.  Callis May have gotten that from scouts.  It also may just be his opinion.  Either way, you can’t say many like you did. 
 

And again, I think Green is defensible at 1.  Lee is not.  Neither is Johnson.

 

[RZNJ]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Yep.  I saw that and see Jones ranked #1 and a throw away comment that Green has the highest upside.

There is no context of the comment.  Is that Callis’ opinion?  What is based on?  Has he pulled 25 scouts and that is what they think?  Does Mayo agree with him?  Is that the opinion of all of MLB.com, like you insinuated? 
 

And again, I think Green is defensible at 1.  Lee is not.  Neither is Johnson.

A throw away line? You're a joke. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A throw away line? You're a joke. 

What is the context of that?  Why does he say it? 
 

I realize you aren’t someone who can have an actual conversation without being a POS but I’m asking you a reasonable question.  
 

And I’m not even saying it’s wrong.  I’m asking for more info than that line.  You are so adamant about it, so I assume you know more and have more of a context?  I would like to hear that.

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What is the context of that?  Why does he say it? 
 

I realize you aren’t someone who can have an actual conversation without being a POS but I’m asking you a reasonable question.  
 

And I’m not even saying it’s wrong.  I’m asking for more info than that line.  You are so adamant about it, so I assume you know more and have more of a context?  I would like to hear 

You wanted to know if anyone called Elijah Green the highest ceiling player in the draft. I cited two sources. You questioned the sources.  I named MLB and Baseball America.  You called me a dick, a liar, a piece of shit, and one additional acronym. But you can't have a conversation with me and it's my fault?  Your are the most clueless  mf I've ever come across.  See, I can do acronyms too, genius.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You wanted to know if anyone called Elijah Green the highest ceiling player in the draft. I cited two sources. You questioned the sources.  I named MLB and Baseball America.  You called me a dick, a liar, a piece of shit, and one additional acronym. But you can't have a conversation with me and it's my fault?  Your are the most clueless  mf I've ever come across.  See, I can do acronyms too, genius.

Well, you didn’t really cite 2 sources.  You mentioned them and provided no comment or proof of the comment.  And you misrepresented it because you said MLB said it when it was someone who writes for MLB.  Again, there is a difference.  I mean, if Mayo said Jones has a higher upside, does that negate Callis?  Whose opinion do you listen to?  So, I don’t think you can represent it that an entire website(like you did) said it.  
 

Same with BA.  Who is saying it?  Is that BA as a whole?  Is it one writer?  What is the context of that?  Was it a poll of GMs and scouts?  All I can find is that BA had Green ranked 5th as of mid March.  I see Jones ranked 1. 

When you provided the proof of one of the comments, there is no context for the actual line.  we don’t know if that if that is the opinion of one guy or of 100 people in the game.   I realize you don’t think that matters but most would agree with me that it does matter and context in any comment means something and should be treated as such.
 

That said, I also acknowledge that some people think it…yet I have failed to see anyone actual rate Green higher.  And I have yet to see anyone who sees the 2 as close.  Again, maybe it’s out there but I haven’t seen it.

[RZNJ]

Listen, you stupid gd mf.  Two sources.  MLB put it out there with their main MLB draft expert.  Did they let Mayo write their main draft piece?  Callis doesn't form any opinion without talking to many sources within baseball.   The Baseball America piece is put out there as their opinion. 

Now, I've got two sources that say Green has got the highest upside. Can you find two sources just as good that say Druw Jones does.

You seem to be confused.  Everyone seems to agree that Jones is the best prospect.  Being the #1 draft prospect doesn't mean he has the highest  ceiling. 

[Sports Guy]

So, every single opinion from  Callis is from someone else?  He never formulates his own opinion?  Ever?

[Frobby]

OK guys, can we get back to substance now?

I wonder if anyone ever really knows what a player’s ceiling is.   I can think of lots of players who did more than anyone thought was possible for them.   

I feel like the two biggest no brainer picks in the last 20 years were Strasburg and Harper.  I think their perceived ceilings were about as high as they go.  But in hindsight, did they really have the highest ceilings?    Could Harper have been Trout even if everything went perfectly for him?   Could Strasbug have been better than Scherzer if he’d been healthy?   I don’t know.   

My sense of Jones vs. Green is that the latter has a higher power ceiling and might be a smidge faster.   But their ceilings seem to be close, with Jones having the better shot at reaching his ceiling.   My sense is that in this case, the trade off between Green’s slightly higher ceiling and Jones’ significantly higher probability of landing somewhere in the vicinity of his ceiling is what makes Jones the better pick.   

 

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

OK guys, can we get back to substance now?

I wonder if anyone ever really knows what a player’s ceiling is.   I can think of lots of players who did more than anyone thought was possible for them.   

I feel like the two biggest no brainer picks in the last 20 years were Strasburg and Harper.  I think their perceived ceilings were about as high as they go.  But in hindsight, did they really have the highest ceilings?    Could Harper have been Trout even if everything went perfectly for him?   Could Strasbug have been better than Scherzer if he’d been healthy?   I don’t know.   

My sense of Jones vs. Green is that the latter has a higher power ceiling and might be a smidge faster.   But their ceilings seem to be close, with Jones having the better shot at reaching his ceiling.   My sense is that in this case, the trade off between Green’s slightly higher ceiling and Jones’ significantly higher probability of landing somewhere in the vicinity of his ceiling is what makes Jones the better pick.   

 

Frobster, we agree 100%.   Ceiling is a misunderstood term.  Players outperform their ceilings all the time.  I doubt any scout had Don Mattingly's ceiling as a 30 homer hitter.  It's a realistic ceiling based on the players skills.  They think could develop above average power. What's that?  25-30 homer power?  

Based on reports, and that's the tricky part, Jones sounds like the guy. But hey, someone might see Brooks Lee's ceiling as a gold glove caliber 3B, who can hit .300 get on base at a .400 clip, and hit 25-30 homers, and feel there's less risk there.   Just saying. Some people have already made up their minds that there is only one way to go and they speak as an authority and yet they haven't even read Callis writeup until they were fed a link to a free site.

[Sports Guy]

Yea because that Callis write up was so descriptive and contained a lot of anecdotes from scouts and GMs.  
 

Of course, Kiley McDaniels write up had some of that I believe and there were some that put him on the Harper level.  So, there’s that.  Kiley also has him the highest graded by FV but does that mean he feels the ceiling is higher?  Not necessarily.

But hey, Callis (with no other info or substance attached) said “he has the highest ceiling”, so obviously that means everything.

@Frobby I would agree with you because ceiling means something different to most in that not everyone’s definition is the exact same down to the details.  Law mentioned Jones has a 70 grade on defense and that could raise to an 80 “like his father”.  The speed is very good.  The offensive upside is excellent.  You put all of that together and that ceiling is very high.

But maybe you can say Green is a little less fast, little worse defensively but has more power.  Does that mean he has a higher ceiling?  In the eyes of some, they may say yes he does because they value power and devalue defense and speed.  To me, I would define ceiling as your total package.  Part of that total package, w/r/t Green is the swing and miss in his bat, even if that’s getting better.  But that hurts his ceiling unless there is a big improvement in that long term vs top flight pitching.  
 

Based on what I have read, I would give Jones the higher ceiling and the better chance of reaching it.  However, I can see why someone would say they believe Green has the higher ceiling because they may value power more than I do.  I value it but I don’t value it over the totality of one’s game.

[RZNJ]

You're still a dope and you still don't get it. Green's swing and miss lowers his chances of reaching his ceiling.  It doesn't lower his ceiling. 

You're also a dope regarding the Callis article.  Callis is not a scout. He compiles opinions from people in the industry.  He may form an opinion once he's compiled the information but he's not pulling a Keith Law here.  

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You're still a dope and you still don't get it. Green's swing and miss lowers his chances of reaching his ceiling.  It doesn't lower his ceiling. 

You're also a dope regarding the Callis article.  Callis is not a scout. He compiles opinions from people in the industry.  He may form an opinion once he's compiled the information but he's not pulling a Keith Law here.  

First of all, of course Callis talks to scouts but it doesn’t mean he doesn’t have his own opinions.  Secondly, we don’t know how many people told him that?  Was it 1 scout? 5 scouts? 100 scouts?  Even your feeble mind understands there is a difference there.  Without context and knowledge of those things, that comment doesn’t mean much.  You want to hold onto it, go right ahead but it doesn’t really mean much without more info behind it but you can keep bringing it up to make you feel better about your point and the idea that you mentioned the source.  Good for you.  

Secondly, it absolutely lowers his ceiling.  It lowers his hit tool which lowers his ceiling.  It’s like Johnson, his hit tool is what makes him the highly ranked guy he is.  He has some power upside and a great bat to ball game.  That hit tool gets him in the realm of an 80 hit grade. If he was swinging and missing like Green, his hit tool wouldn’t have the same grade and he wouldn’t be viewed as a viable candidate to be a top 5 pick.

[Sports Guy]

 

This is giving context:

I watched Jones play the day before as well, as he wrapped up a blistering first month of scrimmages and games to start his season. National scouts have been telling me they were turning in lofty scouting reports from his early spring games. I can confirm -- after about two years of scouting Jones -- that he's turned the corner, and after spending the last week talking to more than two dozen scouts about him, I haven't found one who has another player atop their list. Most give Jones a significant lead over the rnext best player, fellow Atlanta-area prep 2B Termarr Johnson.

 

I'd say about a quarter of the scouts called Jones the best draft prospect since Harper was drafted in 2010; the other three-fourths either took one of those other players or thought there was a multiway tie. There are three other former No. 1 picks -- Stephen Strasburg in 2009, David Price in 2007 and Justin Upton in 2005 -- who join Harper as the only four prospects in recent memory to clearly top Jones.

I posted a top 50 two weeks ago and there's already been a good bit of movement. Georgia prep 2B Termarr Johnson has held strong in the second spot, while Elijah Green has also held strong at third. For me, it's a pretty clear one,then two, then three and then a bit of a dropoff.
 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/33447494/why-druw-jones-best-mlb-draft-prospect-bryce-harper
 

In this article, Kiley mentions his own thoughts and talks about how scouts feel.  That is substance.  That is context.  I would hope anyone would look at that and look at the Callis comment that is being mentioned and see the vast difference.  We know where Kiley is getting these thoughts.  We have zero info on Callis’ thoughts.