Is the overslot strategy worth it?

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Is it this binary?   Let’s say there’s a 1 and a 2 and to you they’re very close but you have a slight preference for player 1.  However, player 1 is demanding $2.5 mm more than player 2.   I can see choosing player 2 even if you think player 1 is the BPA by a narrow margin.   

I’m not saying any of this applies this particular year (though it could).   I’m just speaking hypothetically.  
 

Hypothetically, if I like a player even a little bit more, I'm paying the extra money.   Your first pick is the most important.   That's me.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the term “lesser player” is misleading.  The truth is, nobody knows who the best player in the draft will turn out to be.   Teams can put a subjective probability on who will turn out to be the best.   They will be wrong a lot of the time.  How often has the 1-1 pick turned out to be the best player drafted?   Very rarely.  
 

To be fair they selected by the worst team in the league.  Not exactly the best situation a lot of the time. 

[justD]

58 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Berry is #2 in the draft when you combine hit tool (60) with power (65).   Druw Jones is (50) and (55).     Termarr Johnson is #1 with a (70) and (60).

Druw Jones is a 55 hit and 60 power.   

 

I checked your link and the second set is what they list for Druw Jones.  So who was the first set for?  I'm confused.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, justD said:

I checked your link and the second set is what they list for Druw Jones.  So who was the first set for?  I'm confused.

Jacob Berry is 60 and 65.   I think the link may have pulled up Jackson Holliday.   Click on any player and it gives you all of his grades.

[justD]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Jacob Berry is 60 and 65.   I think the link may have pulled up Jackson Holliday.   Click on any player and it gives you all of his grades.

Um ok. I’ll let it go. 

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, justD said:

Um ok. I’ll let it go. 

The first set is the hit tool. Berry is a 60. Jones is a 55.  Termarr Johnson is a 70.  The second set is power.  They also have speed, arm, and defense. Not sure what you are asking.

[justD]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The first set is the hit tool. Berry is a 60. Jones is a 55.  Termarr Johnson is a 70.  The second set is power.  They also have speed, arm, and defense. Not sure what you are asking.

Your post listed Jones twice, once within the paragraph as 50 and 55, then again in a sentence of its own as 55 and 60. 

Your assumption that I simply didn’t know what tool grades are is what I let go.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, justD said:

Your post listed Jones twice, once within the paragraph as 50 and 55, then again in a sentence of its own as 55 and 60. 

Your assumption that I simply didn’t know what tool grades are is what I let go.

Ok. My mistake in the first sentence. I was only referencing the hit grade and the power grade. Jones's are 55 and 60 respectively.  Berry is 65 and 60.   Johnson is 70 and 60.  I was surprised to see Elijah Green only have a 60 grade for power.

By the way, I didn't assume anything. I didn't understand what you were asking.

[Sports Guy]

McDaniels first mock:

1. Baltimore Orioles

Druw Jones, CF, Wesleyan HS (Ga.), Vanderbilt commit

Rumors persist that the O's could instead opt for a heavy cut from slot here with a college bat; LSU's Jacob Berry is the most-rumored option. Since Berry has a chance to last until the eighth pick if he doesn't go first, you could ballpark that his bonus could be as much as $3 million below slot. Orioles GM Mike Elias has done this in the past to varying degrees when he was making the top pick with Heston Kjerstad (2020), Colton Cowser (2021) and (when he was with Houston) Carlos Correa (in 2012). He also has taken the consensus top player for close to slot, as in 2019 when he selected Adley Rutschman.

Jones is the consensus best player in the draft, and I think it's clear though it isn't unanimous in the industry. Last summer, the top tier of players was very flat and every team stacked its board differently, leading to bonus demands dictating the order more than consensus talent rankings, and that could happen again this year.

Jones would figure to command at or near full slot at the top pick. The O's have the biggest pool in the draft at just under $17 million, roughly $8.8 million for this pick. A source tells me that the O's have narrowed this pick down to five choices. I believe Jones, Berry and Jackson Holliday are the primary options, but I don't think Holliday will be much cheaper to sign than Jones, so the O's would have to view Holliday as better than Jones to justify drafting him. I'm not sure which of Brooks Lee, Termarr Johnson, Elijah Green and possibly another player make up the last two players under consideration.

Here is where the metagame of the draft comes into play. A number of teams are eyeing slot-or-below college players with their first picks to save money to then spend on an over-slot high schooler or injured college pitcher at a later pick. Almost any team could have the money to float a $3 million player down the board, not just teams with the highest pools. Baltimore will have the most money but won't uniquely be able to dictate terms, the Orioles can just do it over and over again. Their pool advantage would give them unique power if there's a $4-5 million type player around for their second pick whom only they could afford, but that's rare and I don't see a candidate in this draft.

Baltimore will be among the teams with money looking to spend it in the competitive Rounds 2-3 before the best over-slot targets are gone. It's more common than you think for teams to just spend their leftover money on the best available player(s) in later rounds, but not actually feel like they're totally worth it.

Cutting here with Berry or one of the other college bats would potentially save a few million, but by the time that actually gets spent you're probably looking at a prep pitcher or two picked in the fourth round or later. Is it a good idea to essentially trade down a half-dozen picks from the No. 1 overall pick to get a couple of $1.5 million high school pitchers? Not for me, and I think the Orioles will see it that way as well.

The reason you want to pick at the top of the draft is to have the chance to pick a potential perennial All-Star, not just to have a little more pool money. If there isn't one of those players available, then doing a heavy cut makes sense. I do think there are multiple players of that caliber in this draft. Odds are the Orioles think there's at least one and will simply pay the bonus that the best player demands.

In terms of later picks, the O's have a clear type: toolsy (mostly college) position players with upside traits, like plus bat speed and playing an up-the-middle position, but not necessarily as polished as other players picked around them. They tried to pay Florida CF Jud Fabian $3 million last year (but couldn't get him to their pick; the Red Sox took him and he didn't sign) and might try again this year. Others who fit the type and could be overpay options for their couple picks include Arizona prep CF Gavin Turley, Oregon State CF Jacob Melton, Vanderbilt RF Spencer Jones, Oklahoma SS Peyton Graham and Illinois State CF Ryan Cermak. I could also see a high-upside, tough-to-sign high school pitcher, and Illinois preps LHP Noah Schultz and RHP Owen Murphy seem like the Orioles' type.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/34013502/2022-mlb-mock-draft-10-kiley-mcdaniel-projects-first-round

[Sports Guy]

The second part of that is the key.  Love what McDaniel is saying here.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The second part of that is the key.  Love what McDaniel is saying here.

This was interesting, and something I've been told doesn't happen.

Quote

It's more common than you think for teams to just spend their leftover money on the best available player(s) in later rounds, but not actually feel like they're totally worth it.

 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

This was interesting, and something I've been told doesn't happen.

 

Yea of course that happens.  You have to “save face”.

This is part of why I hate this underslot strategy.  You have no idea who is going to be available and if they will be worth the money. 
 

The Os have a ton of money to spend. There is no reason to be cheap early on.  It’s nonsensical.

[RZNJ]

I agree with everything he says. That's a good read.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I agree with everything he says. That's a good read.  

It was one of the more well written and thought out mini draft snippets/articles/whatever you want to call it that I can remember reading.

 

[sportsfan8703]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

This was interesting, and something I've been told doesn't happen.

 

Isn’t that what we basically did with Creed Willems?  It seems like it. Why else wait so late to draft him if we liked him so much?  
 

The overslot theory has some risk. It seems pretty obvious that Jud Fabian was the guy we really wanted and we tried to lure him with $3 million. Fabian had a huge year. If he takes that $3 million that would make the Cowser pick look so much better. Imagine Cowser, Fabian, and Rhodes?

I hope we take Druw Jones this draft even if it means being more risky and having to go overslot on a HS bat vs an NCAA bat.