My overall feelings about this team (May 2 edition)

[Going Underground]

12 minutes ago, SteveA said:

How many RBIs is a #1 hitter going to get when the 6-7-8-9 guys ahead of him are the drek we are putting out t here?

Weird stat  Mullins has been up more times with RISP then Santander,Mancini and Mouncastle.He is tied with Austin Hays Didn't go through every Oriole.

[SteveA]

2 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Weird stat  Mullins has been up more times with RISP then Santander,Mancini and Mouncastle.He is tied with Austin Hays Didn't go through every Oriole.

Wow, would not have guessed.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Weird stat  Mullins has been up more times with RISP then Santander,Mancini and Mouncastle.He is tied with Austin Hays Didn't go through every Oriole.

You are looking at at bats.  For plate appearances, it’s:

Hays 28

Santander 27

Mullins 25

Urias 25

Mountcastle 23

Mancini 23

Mateo 22

Urias is hitting .044/.080/.044 with RISP. Ouch!

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, waroriole said:

Ok, so why put a .432 OPS at the 5 spot if we’re rolling with the hot hand?

Maybe that means he's about to get hot.

[Going Underground]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You are looking at at bats.  For plate appearances, it’s:

Hays 28

Santander 27

Mullins 25

Urias 25

Mountcastle 23

Mancini 23

Mateo 22

Urias is hitting .044/.080/.044 with RISP. Ouch!

Thanks Frobby,I should not look up stats at work.

[seak05]

I've definitely enjoyed this team more then last years, through the first month. I am curious how many of these guys will be around in two years though. 

I think Mountcastle is the sneaky interesting one. He does not fit the current regime's philosophies at all

[Camden_yardbird]

I'm going to go against the grain here.  I think Elias has misjudged this team, where it was competitively, and how much should have been invested in the team in the off season. 

Don't get my wrong, I am not saying this team was a playoff caliber team with the right investments.  I am saying this team could have been a playoff caliber team next year with the right investments and I dont think that can happen without some investment this past off season.  A lot of people think that the Orioles are going to be able flip a switch and fill all the holes in the line up.  They are not.  And they are going to have to start making decisions on some contributors that might set them further back depending on the investment the owners are willing to make.

I think this thread is exactly where the Orioles owners want fans to be.  Content with slight progress when much more could have been made.

[OriolesMagic83]

13 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I'm going to go against the grain here.  I think Elias has misjudged this team, where it was competitively, and how much should have been invested in the team in the off season. 

Don't get my wrong, I am not saying this team was a playoff caliber team with the right investments.  I am saying this team could have been a playoff caliber team next year with the right investments and I dont think that can happen without some investment this past off season.  A lot of people think that the Orioles are going to be able flip a switch and fill all the holes in the line up.  They are not.  And they are going to have to start making decisions on some contributors that might set them further back depending on the investment the owners are willing to make.

I think this thread is exactly where the Orioles owners want fans to be.  Content with slight progress when much more could have been made.

If the O's had competent hitters at 2 of 2B/SS/3B/C, you could argue the extra offense would have the O's close to .500 w/ the improved pitching staff.  Adley should solve the O's catching problems soon, but there's no solutions in sight for the 2B/SS/3B debacle. 

[TommyPickles]

Nice write up. I share your optomism about Urias.

One point that I thought was missing was how devastating the Means news is. I've been holding out hope that 2022 could be like 2011, where we finish strong and turn some heads. Then 2023 could be like 2012, where we shock the baseball world and snag a wildcard spot. (Especially with the new 12-team playoff format) Means likely missing most of 2023 makes this seem impossible. I also feel bad for him personally, because his career has had so many setbacks (injuries, the death of his dad, etc.).

Oh yea and Bemboom sucks.

 

[glenn__davis]

11 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If the O's had competent hitters at 2 of 2B/SS/3B/C, you could argue the extra offense would have the O's close to .500 w/ the improved pitching staff.  Adley should solve the O's catching problems soon, but there's no solutions in sight for the 2B/SS/3B debacle. 

Gunnar Henderson is off to a terrific start in Bowie.  If he keeps performing I think a midseason promotion to Norfolk will be in order and then he's a possibility for 1 of those spots next year.

Westburg is ice cold right now but I'm confident he'll turn it around.  Hopefully both of those guys fill 2 of those holes by mid-2023.  And of course you have Adley hopefully replacing Chirinos.  And then Coby Mayo hopefully coming not long after.  And then there are lesser guys like Prieto, Norby, Vavra.

There are solutions, they won't all work out and they'll need to supplement for sure but we do have IF prospects down on the farm.

[sportsfan8703]

8-16. Losing Means hurt next year’s chances a lot. Even if we were going to trade him. 
 

The bats have been cold, but so far the pitching has been better than expected. That should even out and still leave us around 10W-15L every 25 games. 
 

The slow starts and injuries in our entire system has really killed some of the optimism for next year. It really makes you realize how difficult it is for a player to stay healthy and to perform well at each level up the ladder. 
 

Elias called out the pitchers. It might be time to call out the bats. Then after that I guess he can fire Hyde. Elias is running out of scape goats. 

[Jammer7]

Great OP! This team is interesting, and better than last year. The pitching, in particular, has been fun to watch develop. Several great stories like Bautista, T. Wells, Perez, Akin, Bradish, Krehbiel, Zimmermann, Watkins and even Lyles, so far. Means goes down, because pitchers break, and guys have stepped it up. 

That said, if any fan judges anything offensively based on April numbers, I have a Hall of Fame reason why we shouldn’t be too harsh. Eddie Murray never hit well until June. He was a notoriously slow starter. Fans complained then too, every year. He would always proceed to mash as his OPS increased each month. I think we have several hitters that will break through soon.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=murraed02&year=Career&t=b

I am not saying there are any HOF players on this team, and we do have some replacement level (or below) players, sure. The lack of offense is not just the Orioles, though. We are one of the worst offenses in the league, however. Our strength of schedule can be a big factor there. The pitching we have faced has been very good, overall, except the Red Sox series.

We can probably expect Mountcastle and Mancini to produce much better results, based on their track record. Mullins is probably one we can expect to do the same, but that is more tenuous with less track record behind him. Hays and Santander have actually been pretty good, overall. Not much in the way of power, and I expect that to come as the weather heats up soon. That is our top 5. We can be encouraged by the improvement of these guys plate discipline (swing decisions), especially Santander.

It is reasonable to think Urias will hit, based on a limited track record and his general approach to RCF. His peripheral numbers indicate he should be fine. I just don’t like him everyday at 3B. 

Mateo is going to get better and better, IMO. There isn’t much of a track record, no. Look at his peripheral numbers and it’s a mixed bag. He has a 6% walk rate, 32% K rate and a wrc+ of 66. The statcast numbers give some hope with a 35% hard hit % and a max exit velo of 108.7. I expected to find that he had been unlucky, but his BABIP is .340, so maybe not. Many of his hard hit balls have been right at fielders, though. His speed is a definite asset, obviously. The defense has been pretty solid, with some early errors. Overall, I believe he will improve as the weather heats up. This is his first extended playing time at the major league level, and he hasn’t really played everyday in a few years. His potential is intriguing to me, and I am as excited about seeing what he can become.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jorge-mateo/17273/stats?position=SS/OF

We know Adley is coming. So we can expect the offense from our catcher to improve significantly. The defense has been pretty good there, though. And the pitching improvement is, in part, because of Chirinos and Bemboom. Chirinos everyday is overexposed. In a back up role, I think he hits somewhat better.

I’m not sold on Odor. He’s been heating up, yeah. His approach is abysmal, most often. His defense has been pretty solid, and I think he and Mateo work well together. It is what it is, for now.

Overall, I expect the offense to be middle of the pack as the season progresses. Most hitters will heat up in the warmer climate. I expect the Orioles hitter to continue responding to their new hitting philosophy as they continue to progress and make those adjustments. That, along with the expected additions of Adley, Stowers and whomever else, they should be even more interesting as the season moves along. I don’t expect the bullpen to be as good as they are right now, not do I expect the starters to be as good. But it should be more fun to watch these guys, and in some cases, their replacements.