The Teixeira Watch: Part V - AM says the O's "have flexibility" on Tex

[tommyboy]

Tuned into ESPN Radio 104.5 the team out of Albany NY. The Show was called "Sound off with Sinkoff". He is a huge Orioles fan' date=' originally from the Baltimore area. Was talking about the Tex sweepstakes, with someone assc with the Orioles on the phone. Didnt catch a name. This person said there was a 7yr 150 Mil deal from Baltimore on the table, Boston And DC both have 8-160 also on the tables. The Yankees are OUT of the bidding, and LAA will so be out, if they already havent looked elsewhere. Now he also said Boston will go up in cash a little, but will not go more than 8 years, Baltimore seemed firm on their offer, which is the highest per season that Tex has right now. The Nats though will go more years from what he has heard. Thought our offer was the best, and felt confident that the Orioles are the LEAD HORSE coming down the stretch:clap3: Also eluded that anything can happen, but was confident a deal between the O's and Tex will get done. Also went on to just mention the O's where in contact with Redding, Sheets, and Perez. The Sinkoff guys was very vocal on how Tex must know he would be targeted, if he turned his back on an offer that is really good to stay home and play for your childhood team. Just sending what I heard on the radio show, take it for what its worth. Again I didnt get the guys name Sinkoff was talking too, but the guy seemed very confident.:mwahaha::wedge:

Maybe it was Belkast:p

Fire away[/quote']

Mo

Thanks for the info. I just wish like all of us here on OH we would just sign the guy already. We have far too many holes to fill on this team which will only come back to hurt us later if we contiue to let this drag on.

[bird watcher]

This is what I've repeatedly said. With or without Tex, our franchise will not compete until we have three home grown pitchers (including guys we traded for like Tillman) who are above average or better. The cost of really good free agent pitchers is just too high.

I don't think we need three. I see that we need two. We can afford one starting pitcher in FA if it means competing (ie. maybe not yet). We have Guthrie for a while and when the time comes, if we had to, we could make a trade for another good starter. We definitely need at least two of the farm boys to show up in a big way. Three would be even better.

[Frobby]

Well I stand correct. IMO, it takes any player time before they get to their full potential with some exceptions. Gutherie is 30 years old. He didn't just come into success. There was a reason the Orioles got their hands on him. I am just saying that 2011 might be when these pitchers make their debuts. I would not expect them to be good their first year. I think they will hit their groove by 2012 or 2013. I hope I am wrong and they all come into fruition with in a year or two.

I'd be amazed if any of the three did not debut by mid-2010 at the latest. And by the way, there's also Bergesen, Berken and Hernandez to consider. Could be an unexpected pleasant surprise in there, and I'd expect all three to debut sometime in 2009-10 as well. Or, based on your theory of how long it takes a pitcher to hit his groove, maybe Olson or Liz finally catches on. Or maybe Erbe dominates AA this year and debuts sometime in 2010. Maybe Spoone or Patton regains their status. Maybe Albers gets a starting spot and thrives. There are a lot of possible permutations leading to the O's having three very good home grown young pitchers by 2011. Or, all of them could fizzle and never be any good.

[MoeknowsO's]

I'm in! I've never gone to Bruno stadium.

hey we could do a rats game!!! Im from the Glens Falls area, believe it or not, we have a good core of O's fans up here. in the summer we get together once a week and watch the O's. Our softball team used to be Orange and black, until we got a Red Sox freak for a sponsor.

I agree with you guys on Sinkoff, but its nice to here Orioles stuff once in awhile.

Do a good service

Punch a Yankee fan!!!!!!!!!!!!:cussing:

[Lucky Jim]

Like I said, we don't know the true story of the Orioles' economics. They spent $93 mm on payroll in 2007, $67 mm in 2008. Did they spend an additional $26 mm on the farm system, international scouting, etc.? Who knows, but I doubt it. According to Forbes, in 2007 the Orioles had revenue of $166 mm and player expenses of $103 mm (inclusive of benefits). Operating profit was $7.7 mm. From that, I deduce that the team spent ~$55 mm on non-payroll expenses. The year before, the O's had $158 mm in revenue, $86 mm in player expenses, and operating income of $17 mm. That suggests ~$55 mm in non-payroll expenses. That seems to suggest that the drop in payroll made no difference in the amount spent elsewhere. But in any event we don't have the true picture on either the revenue or the expense side, I suspect.

I don't think we're necesarily 5 years away from the "prime" of Wieters et al. Johnny Bench was league MVP at ages 22 and 24. Joe Mauer put up MVP-caliber years at ages 23 and 25. Mike Piazza was cranking from age 24 onwards. Zito, Mulder and Hudson were 23, 23 and 25 when they won 56 games in 2001. Prior, Zambrano and Woods were 22, 22 and 26 when they won 45 games for the Cubs in 2003. Tampa's rotation last year had 3 24-year olds, a 25-year old and a 26-year old. I think it is pretty realistic that our rotation can be good by 2011, if it is ever going to be good.

How I feel about an opt-out depends on the degree to which the contract is frontloaded/backloaded. If it's fairly backloaded, I don't have a problem with it, even after 4 years.

I don't need to know the whole picture of Oriole economics to know that a $200m contract will have some effect on future spending. If it didn't, we surely would've move earlier to sign a high-priced FA.

In the best of all possible worlds (young pitching staff gels, Wieters is Piazza) then, sure, we can compete earlier. I mean, it's fair to hope that Wieters is Bench/Piazza/Mauer-like. But what if he's not? I don't gamble $200m on the hope that he is - and right now it's mostly speculation and hope.

As for the pitchers, well - sure. The Cubs were good young (and injured older). And the A's were good young. And it's fair to hope the O's young pitchers (only one of whom has pitched above A ball) but it's not particularly responsible to base an enormous financial decision on those cards aligning.

I've said all along, you can make an argument that going in on Teix now isn't completely irrational. But you're not going to get much further than that. It's a gamble. Pure and simple. It's not calculated for success, but it's not doomed to failure.

Some people are more comfortable with that than I am. Which is fine. (And some people don't seem to realize that this is the case. Which is scary.)

[Hank Scorpio]

Regardless of what Teixeira said at the football game (the Georgia Tech game, I mean), I would be surprised if this came to a swift conclusion.

Given what we know about Scott Boras, he will drag this thing out forever if he can.

[Jdan14]

Since there isn't much going on here compared to the past few nights...what is the Orioles future lineup and rotation for say 2011 or futher?

Roberts

Markakis

Jones

Weiters

Huff

Reimold

Rowell

Snyder

Izturiz

Matusz, Tillman, Gutherie, Arrieta, Erbe?

[MarylandTerp08]

Regardless of what Teixeira said at the football game (the Georgia Tech game, I mean), I would be surprised if this came to a swift conclusion.

Given what we know about Scott Boras, he will drag this thing out forever if he can.

Yeah but Boras works for Teixeira, if he wants a conclusion, it will happen.

[hatepaste]

Yeah but Boras works for Teixeira, if he wants a conclusion, it will happen.

I would tend to agree with this, but if Boras says "Hey if you wait another 2 weeks, I can get you another 20 million", he might be ok waiting it out.

[The Rick]

Excuse my laziness, where do we stand?

Thanks!

[WietersOvechkin]

Since there isn't much going on here compared to the past few nights...what is the Orioles future lineup and rotation for say 2011 or futher?

Roberts

Markakis

Jones

Weiters

Huff

Reimold

Rowell

Snyder

Izturiz

Matusz, Tillman, Gutherie, Arrieta, Erbe?

Huff will be gone after this year as will Izturis IMO. Also if we don't sign Tex I think it will be end for Roberts as an Oriole too.

[MoeknowsO's]

Why do we bother,

it will happen sometime, no matter how many time we hit refresh, isnt there others who can help our club out, I mean Tex is being looked at like the second coming of Christ.

[OrioleBird79]

This is what I've repeatedly said. With or without Tex, our franchise will not compete until we have three home grown pitchers (including guys we traded for like Tillman) who are above average or better. The cost of really good free agent pitchers is just too high.

We are talking about giving Teixeira $175+ Million, but pitching is too expensive. I mean, the Orioles could sign Sheets, Uehera, and Kawakami would cost roughly $5 Million per year more than Teixeira's yearly salary. I think the Oriolec could sign those three pitchers and ink Dunn for a total of roughly $33 Million per year. I think those moves would make the onfield product pretty good this year. Allow guys like Matusz and Arrieta the opportunity to supplment the starting pitching. Bring up Wieters and Reimold.

[Oriolidae85]

Sounds like 7/150 is the most the O's "wow offer" could have been. I wouldn't have called it a wow offer, but it's a good start.

My take fwiw - it's down to Boston and Baltimore, but I can't shake the feeling that Baltimore is being used, and the decision was made to go to Boston unless Baltimore blows away Boston's offer - which won't likely happen.

$21Million+ every year over 7 of them is a "WOW" offer....especially coming from the Orioles. Wonder how it would rank in baseball history? I'd say atleast top 10 total/annual in contract terms....any lawyers out there working pro bono?

[Hank Scorpio]

Yeah but Boras works for Teixeira, if he wants a conclusion, it will happen.

Well, even if he sticks to Christmas, let me remind people that that is a week from tomorrow.

It just doesn't feel imminent, I guess.