Are the O's turning a corner?

[Jammer7]

15 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Hindsight. But both were worthwhile low risk gambles. Many more like this that would va e helped move us forward, albeit incrementally. 

So, Elias was right to not sign them then, in hindsight? Or perhaps they made a judgement based on durability and various factors to sign Lyles and give the young guys opportunities. I know that doesn’t fit your agenda, but let’s be honest and give credit when due. 

[NCRaven]

On 5/8/2022 at 11:01 PM, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Hindsight. But both were worthwhile low risk gambles. Many more like this that would va e helped move us forward, albeit incrementally. 

Low risk gamble on Cueto that fails good.

Low risk gamble on Odor that fails bad.

Logic is not your strength.

[oriole]

I don’t want to start a new thread in case this is a dumb question or it’s already been talked about and I missed it…but what is Elias supposed to do if the O’s are playing around .500 or even slightly better by the trade deadline? Obviously, in context of how horrible they’ve been and were expected to be this year….500 isn’t too shabby and pretty damn close to exciting as sad as that sounds. 
 

Assuming players like Mullins, Santander, Mancini, Lyles, Lopez (guys that aren’t expected to be around for the hopeful winning years) are all contributing…how can Elias possibly take the PR hit by trading them but how can he possibly keep them (especially the outfielders) when there’s other players that are ready to come up to replace them? If Lopez is a dominant-ish closer, you gotta sell high and see what you can get obviously. Same goes for the other guys I listed. But that’s going to really sting if the team overall is doing better than expected and there’s a fan base that is hungry for baseball that’s not awful. 

Anyways, just something I was thinking about driving around today. If we’re lucky, this will be a good problem to have. I’m still hesitant to get too excited about the team though. 

 

 

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, oriole said:

I don’t want to start a new thread in case this is a dumb question or it’s already been talked about and I missed it…but what is Elias supposed to do if the O’s are playing around .500 or even slightly better by the trade deadline? Obviously, in context of how horrible they’ve been and were expected to be this year….500 isn’t too shabby and pretty damn close to exciting as sad as that sounds. 
 

Assuming players like Mullins, Santander, Mancini, Lyles, Lopez (guys that aren’t expected to be around for the hopeful winning years) are all contributing…how can Elias possibly take the PR hit by trading them but how can he possibly keep them (especially the outfielders) when there’s other players that are ready to come up to replace them? If Lopez is a dominant-ish closer, you gotta sell high and see what you can get obviously. Same goes for the other guys I listed. But that’s going to really sting if the team overall is doing better than expected and there’s a fan base that is hungry for baseball that’s not awful. 

Anyways, just something I was thinking about driving around today. If we’re lucky, this will be a good problem to have. I’m still hesitant to get too excited about the team though. 

 

 

Depends on how far away from the wild card they are.  If they are in striking distance they have to keep the players that are helping them win.   If they are 6 or more games back of the of the last wild card spot they go ahead and sell.  JMO

[maybenxtyr]

32 minutes ago, oriole said:

I don’t want to start a new thread in case this is a dumb question or it’s already been talked about and I missed it…but what is Elias supposed to do if the O’s are playing around .500 or even slightly better by the trade deadline? Obviously, in context of how horrible they’ve been and were expected to be this year….500 isn’t too shabby and pretty damn close to exciting as sad as that sounds. 
 

Assuming players like Mullins, Santander, Mancini, Lyles, Lopez (guys that aren’t expected to be around for the hopeful winning years) are all contributing…how can Elias possibly take the PR hit by trading them but how can he possibly keep them (especially the outfielders) when there’s other players that are ready to come up to replace them? If Lopez is a dominant-ish closer, you gotta sell high and see what you can get obviously. Same goes for the other guys I listed. But that’s going to really sting if the team overall is doing better than expected and there’s a fan base that is hungry for baseball that’s not awful. 

Anyways, just something I was thinking about driving around today. If we’re lucky, this will be a good problem to have. I’m still hesitant to get too excited about the team though. 

 

 

They should trade anyone on your list if it actually improves their chances moving forward. 

 

The bigger problem is, there's really no one "knocking on the door" in the MiL other than the 2 or 3 guys that we all expected to see this year.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

They should trade anyone on your list if it actually improves their chances moving forward. 

 

The bigger problem is, there's really no one "knocking on the door" in the MiL other than the 2 or 3 guys that we all expected to see this year.

If the O's are in the wild card race on July 30-31, the future is now.

[maybenxtyr]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If the O's are in the wild card race on July 30-31, the future is now.

I don't think this is something that we are going to have to worry about. I'm enjoying the pitching at the moment, but there's some underlying stats suggesting that this may shift back to normal before 7/31.

 

It's a stretch saying that the future is now when most, not all of the current roster is not a part of the future plans.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I don't think this is something that we are going to have to worry about. I'm enjoying the pitching at the moment, but there's some underlying stats suggesting that this may shift back to normal before 7/31.

 

It's a stretch saying that the future is now when most, not all of the current roster is not a part of the future plans.

Adley, Grayson, DL and maybe even Gunnar could be with the O's around that time.

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, oriole said:

I don’t want to start a new thread in case this is a dumb question or it’s already been talked about and I missed it…but what is Elias supposed to do if the O’s are playing around .500 or even slightly better by the trade deadline?

Well, there’s a reason that hasn’t been talked about — because it’s very unlikely to happen.   

But let’s indulge ourselves for a minute.   If that were to happen, I think Elias would need to take a hard look at why it had happened, and what our chances were of grabbing a wild card spot.   And if we had a realistic shot and seemed to have some reason to think we’d be as good or better next year with the talent on hand, I think he’d need to forego a sell off.   

Now, that’s a general feeling.  I’ll come back to this in July if we’re actually in the WC hunt.   I’d still say the odds of that are 100-1 at this point.  We’re on a 67-win pace.  

 

[maybenxtyr]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Adley, Grayson, DL and maybe even Gunnar could be with the O's around that time.

I would love to see Gunnar up but I don't think Elias shares in that sentiment. 2 of the other 3 should be up though. I don't think they fast track Hall.

[wildcard]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, there’s a reason that hasn’t been talked about — because it’s very unlikely to happen.   

But let’s indulge ourselves for a minute.   If that were to happen, I think Elias would need to take a hard look at why it had happened, and what our chances were of grabbing a wild card spot.   And if we had a realistic shot and seemed to have some reason to think we’d be as good or better next year with the talent on hand, I think he’d need to forego a sell off.   

Now, that’s a general feeling.  I’ll come back to this in July if we’re actually in the WC hunt.   I’d still say the odds of that are 100-1 at this point.  We’re on a 67-win pace.  

 

So you say there is a chance.

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I would love to see Gunnar up but I don't think Elias shares in that sentiment. 2 of the other 3 should be up though. I don't think they fast track Hall.

If Hall pitches the way he can it will not be fast tracking.

[oriole]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, there’s a reason that hasn’t been talked about — because it’s very unlikely to happen.   

But let’s indulge ourselves for a minute.   If that were to happen, I think Elias would need to take a hard look at why it had happened, and what our chances were of grabbing a wild card spot.   And if we had a realistic shot and seemed to have some reason to think we’d be as good or better next year with the talent on hand, I think he’d need to forego a sell off.   

Now, that’s a general feeling.  I’ll come back to this in July if we’re actually in the WC hunt.   I’d still say the odds of that are 100-1 at this point.  We’re on a 67-win pace.  

 

Yes, I am very aware I’m getting ahead of myself! I have been surprised by some performances so far though and it’s not out of the realm of possibility, especially if the pitching stays average and then guys like Mullins and Mancini start hitting like we hoped for…plus potential additions of Rutschman and others. 
 

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

They should trade anyone on your list if it actually improves their chances moving forward. 

 

The bigger problem is, there's really no one "knocking on the door" in the MiL other than the 2 or 3 guys that we all expected to see this year.

I actually agree with this sentiment. The guys I listed are not long term options and if we’re lucky enough to see them playing well enough to pull the team out of obscurity then we could get a real option for middle infield or some pitching depth. But it will be an extremely tough sell, not only to the fan base, but to the league as a whole when it’s a very unpopular approach lately to tank. 

[oriole]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If Hall pitches the way he can it will not be fast tracking.

Tonight is his first start in AAA. I’m not saying he isn’t ready but Elias is going to want to keep him back because that’s what Elias does.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, oriole said:

Tonight is his first start in AAA. I’m not saying he isn’t ready but Elias is going to want to keep him back because that’s what Elias does.

IMO Elias approach to promotion quickens once Adley is in the majors.   The competitive window begins.  And they don't want to waste their top prospects time if there are look players they can add to the major league team.