When do you expect the 'International Pipeline' to start producing players?

[emmett16]

The International part of the rebuild, for me, is the most interesting simply because it's something we've never seen the Oriole's embrace.    I've sifted through the Fangraphs Depth Chart to find all the International FA signings & trade acquisitions that Elias has brought in.  There are a few other international players on the depth chart that are hold overs from the previous regime and are not included.  Players are listed with their age from the highest level they are currently playing.  I left off Raul Rangel who appears to have a serious injury.  I imagine a few more names will emerge from the FSL and DSL as those seasons kick off and we get more info.  Here is a list of our current "international pipeline'' If there is anyone that I missed let me know and I'll make an edit.  

• Jean Pinto 21 A+
• Cesar Prieto IF 23 A+
• Juan De Los Santos 20 A
• Noelberth Romero 20 A
• Moises Ramirez 20 A
• Isaac De Leon 20 A
• Mishael Deson 19+ A
• Raul Rangel 19 A (IL)
• Elio Prado 20 FSL
• Maikol Hernandez 18 FSL
• Kevin Guerrero 18 FSL
• Samuel Basallo 17+ FSL
• Leandro Arias 17 DSL
• Braylin Tavera 17 DSL

When they announced a focus on the international market in 2018, I figured it would take 7 years for us to see a solid showing of potential impact players at each level of the organization (DSL,FSL,A,A+,AA,AAA & MLB).   Starting at ground bottom that's essentially one year for each level of the organization (for the bulk of the players brought in).  Four years in and it looks like the first wave is in low A and still 3 or 4 years away from potentially impacting the MLB.  It also looks like the strength of the international pipeline is much farther away.  I thought Prieto had a good chance to move fast and arrive next year and maybe he still does.  Hopefully we will be able to get another advanced player in this year's pool that can similarly move quickly.   Four years into the rebuild and it doesn't look like we are going to see any of Elias' international players crack the MLB roster for at least another year.  It looks like we are 3 years away from having the "pipeline" reach the MLB (having 5+ international players on each team's roster) and it looks like we are likely 4-5 years away from have a difference making International player, or two, on our MLB roster.  What do you think about the state of the international player pipeline?  

[Frobby]

I consider the class Perez signed this January to be our first “full go” class.   That group will be in the DSL this year, and realistically, they begin to populate Delmarva in 2024.

Though I don’t consider the July 2019 class or the January 2021 class to be “full go,” they certainly did reflect better efforts than under the old regime and hopefully will produce a few nuggets; they just aren’t likely to produce a full complement.   

One guy I’m interested in who you didn’t mention is Raul Rangel, 19-year old pitcher for Delmarva.   He had good numbers in the FCL last year.   Unfortunately, he’s on the IL right now and I don’t know how serious of an injury he has.
 

[Hazmat]

I recall the Red Sox saying it was difficult to give up Elio Prado in the Cashner trade.  As far as I can tell, he's still in extended spring training in Sarasota.  He's now 20 years old.

This article mentions some other international names:

https://eutawstreetreport.com/development-is-complex-not-linear/

 

[emmett16]

I only left Rangel off because of the injury.  It's hard to find updates on any of these guys especially relating to injuries.  I agree with you on timeline of the 'full go' class and that the previous classes, outside a couple long shots, don't have much intriguing.   In going through this exercise, it just illustrated how much work it takes, how long it takes to get a full system in place, how far away we really are from reaping the rewards, and how negligent the previous regime's strategy was (handcuffed or not).   It's crazy to think that our blue-chip international prospects are 5 years away in year 4 of the rebuild.   

[btdart20]

This last winter was our first 'full go' at it, like Frobby said.  Yes, we have some guys, but the scope/funding and intentionality has changed.  There is quite a gap between what the O's had (and even now have) and the 'brand' awareness of, say, the Dodgers.  But 1000-mile journey starts with the first step.

That said, I bet the full impact won't be felt for a decade or longer as that 'brand' gap closes (because spending is more regulated now than it was years ago internationally).  I do think we will pull better talent in (and away from other teams) than if we didn't have a presence at all.  And osmosis will average talent out better across the league. 

A 6-year timeframe seems pretty close to start seeing a legit impact at the MLB level.  Many of these guys sign at age 16/17.  Really special players (Soto) can move fast.  But if the average age of MLB promotion is 24-25ish, then that's 8 years.

Assuming development, I can see Prieto being in Baltimore the next 1-2 years.  Everything I've seen and read on him seems to point to a very professional approach and a solid hit tool.  And he's also 23.  He's probably the leading edge from the 'full go'.

[scarey1999]

It may take 6-7 years to get a 16yo Dominican readied for their debut in the show, but after 2-3 years in the system you usually know what you’re working with and whether they will be able to develop into something. 

Now there are exceptions.  If you sign the next Wander or Juan Soto, obviously consider yourself lucky. On the other side of the equation are guys like Felix Bautista who are late bloomers that took more time to bake. 
 

 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

On 5/10/2022 at 11:06 AM, Hazmat said:

I recall the Red Sox saying it was difficult to give up Elio Prado in the Cashner trade.  As far as I can tell, he's still in extended spring training in Sarasota.  He's now 20 years old.

This article mentions some other international names:

https://eutawstreetreport.com/development-is-complex-not-linear/

 

Thanks. 

[emmett16]

On 5/10/2022 at 11:06 AM, Hazmat said:

I recall the Red Sox saying it was difficult to give up Elio Prado in the Cashner trade.  As far as I can tell, he's still in extended spring training in Sarasota.  He's now 20 years old.

This article mentions some other international names:

https://eutawstreetreport.com/development-is-complex-not-linear/

 

Prado had a couple hits tonight.  Looks like he just logged his third game at Delmarva and is batting second in the line up.  With Hernaiz moved up, Prado becomes most exciting guy in the lineup.  Will be interesting to finally get some looks at him.  

[SCJeff]

This is just my guess, but 4-7 years before we see an Elias signed internal player getting to the major league club. Maybe next year if we can sign a top 10 international prospect the timeline will be faster, but it just seems like a HUGE jump from international to MLB unless you are a superstar in the making. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, SCJeff said:

This is just my guess, but 4-7 years before we see an Elias signed internal player getting to the major league club. Maybe next year if we can sign a top 10 international prospect the timeline will be faster, but it just seems like a HUGE jump from international to MLB unless you are a superstar in the making. 

Four to seven more years?  So a decade?

The O's did better than that before Elias.

[emmett16]

Bump.  The international guys are starting to filter up through the system.

2021 there were 3 top 20 guys (Basallo, Hernandez, Pinto)

2022 there were 2 top 20 guys (Basallo Bencosme)

2023 there are  now 7 top 20 guys (Basallo, Liranzo, Sosa, Arrias, Almeyda, Tavera, DeLeon)

Basallo has made it to AA.  By the end of the season we should have international players at every level of the system.  
 

In 2025 the O’s will have a player in MLB and every level on the minor league system.  7 years after starting the process the pipeline will be complete and fully operational. 

[RZNJ]

6 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Bump.  The international guys are starting to filter up through the system.

2021 there were 3 top 20 guys (Basallo, Hernandez, Pinto)

2022 there were 2 top 20 guys (Basallo Bencosme)

2023 there are  now 7 top 20 guys (Basallo, Liranzo, Sosa, Arrias, Almeyda, Tavera, DeLeon)

Basallo has made it to AA.  By the end of the season we should have international players at every level of the system.  
 

In 2025 the O’s will have a player in MLB and every level on the minor league system.  7 years after starting the process the pipeline will be complete and fully operational. 

I get what you’re saying but Koby Perez was hired in January of 2019.   I’d say we were fully operational by January of 2023 even the the results haven’t been reflected at the ML level yet.  

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I get what you’re saying but Koby Perez was hired in January of 2019.   I’d say we were fully operational by January of 2023 even the the results haven’t been reflected at the ML level yet.  

I think he means that the pipeline will be producing major league players.  That’s the endpoint of the pipeline.  

Anyway, 7 in the top 20 is excellent.  Even so, most of these guys are still in the FCL/DSL, so there’s more evaluation risk there than for guys who have played a year or two in full season ball.  Things for those 7 could look a lot better or worse in a year.  

[emmett16]

I’d say it’s pretty close to fully operational.  Once the Dominican Facility is complete I’d say it’s fully operational.  When I started the thread I was wondering how long it would take to get a player to the MLB.  At that point the pipeline is complete and should be delivering players on a yearly basis.  That looks to be 2025, a little over 6 years after Perez was hired.  It’s been really interesting watching the whole thing unfold.  Can’t wait to hear about the grand opening for the Dominican Academy. 

[LookinUp]

I feel like I've been hearing about Basallo forever now. I note that because he's pretty much an elite prospect and he's still only really about to start AA. It just takes a while for these kids to go from babies to grown men that are ready for the majors.

I agree with Frobby's note above. I almost don't know what to make of this year's top 30 because on one hand, it's awesome that so many are international. On the other hand, it worries me that they're so young and so far away. A few or more of those 7 will almost certainly flame out. 

So while I agree that the pipeline will be complete when there's input on one end and output to the majors on the other, I don't feel like it'll be running at full capacity for a couple more years still.