Manny Machado and the Hall of Fame

[Redskins Rick]

On 5/23/2022 at 12:40 PM, tinman said:

Pretty high IMO. His greatest asset is his durability. Hes played in more games than anybody in the MLB since 2015.

Also, it appears that he is actually getting better. It seemed he may have plateaued a few years ago and he was what he was. But hes turning it up.

He may actually be just starting his peak 2-3 years.

remember the knock on him, was the alleged concern about his durability following 2 seasons of knee injuries.

Should be a first round shoe in, if he keeps playing well.

 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

remember the knock on him, was the alleged concern about his durability following 2 seasons of knee injuries.

Should be a first round shoe in, if he keeps playing well.

 

Yep, pretty ironic that some fans were afraid to lock him up early because of those knee surgeries, and since then he’s been one of the most durable players in baseball.  Still, you never know who will stay healthy as they age.  I recall Albert Belle had played virtually every game for several years before we signed him, and you know how that went.  

[Redskins Rick]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Yep, pretty ironic that some fans were afraid to lock him up early because of those knee surgeries, and since then he’s been one of the most durable players in baseball.  Still, you never know who will stay healthy as they age.  I recall Albert Belle had played virtually every game for several years before we signed him, and you know how that went.  

Totally impossible to look at the ole magic eight ball, and determine the futre.

Even the best of cakes fans here, never expected him to revive his career with the Braves like he did. 

Verlander had turned into a .500 mediocre pitcher with Detroit before being traded to the Astros.

It pains me to see Manny playing for any team other than the Birds. Its not his fault, dang ownership here sucks so bad here.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

28 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Totally impossible to look at the ole magic eight ball, and determine the futre.

Even the best of cakes fans here, never expected him to revive his career with the Braves like he did. 

Verlander had turned into a .500 mediocre pitcher with Detroit before being traded to the Astros.

It pains me to see Manny playing for any team other than the Birds. Its not his fault, dang ownership here sucks so bad here.

 

Markakis had one season in Atlanta where he was a somewhat better-than-average player.  His last year in Baltimore was about as good as any year he had with the Braves.

Verlander's last year-and-three-quarters in Detroit he was worth about nine wins over replacement, he was probably one of the top 10 or 20 pitchers in baseball.

Even if Manny did sign a huge extension with the Orioles it's unlikely he would have remained with the team through a five-year scorched Earth rebuild.

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Markakis had one season in Atlanta where he was a somewhat better-than-average player.  His last year in Baltimore was about as good as any year he had with the Braves.

Verlander's last year-and-three-quarters in Detroit he was worth about nine wins over replacement, he was probably one of the top 10 or 20 pitchers in baseball.

Even if Manny did sign a huge extension with the Orioles it's unlikely he would have remained with the team through a five-year scorched Earth rebuild.

Not if you use WAR. 

Nick was a 1.7, he had a 2.4 and 2.6 with the Braves and 4 other years.

Not bad, when some here, thought his tank was pretty empty and didnt deserve a 3 year deal.

You are dead on about Verlander, my memory is faulty on that one.

One can only wonder, if they kept Manny, would they have tumbled as bad and need a total rebuild?

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

remember the knock on him, was the alleged concern about his durability following 2 seasons of knee injuries.

Should be a first round shoe in, if he keeps playing well.

 

Manny will almost certainly finish this year with 50+ rWAR.  Here's a complete list of non-steroid-tainted, retired players with 50+ WAR through age 29 who aren't in the Hall:

1. Andruw Jones
2. Nobody else

Even including steroid guys the list is just ARod and Bonds. Cesar Cedeno and Sherry Magee just missed the 50 WAR cutoff.

Jones will probably, eventually make the Hall.  Manny would have to retire in the next couple years or have a Chris Davis extended collapse to not be inducted.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

Not if you use WAR. 

Nick was a 1.7, he had a 2.4 and 2.6 with the Braves and 4 other years.

Not bad, when some here, thought his tank was pretty empty and didnt deserve a 3 year deal.

You are dead on about Verlander, my memory is faulty on that one.

One can only wonder, if they kept Manny, would they have tumbled as bad and need a total rebuild?

What are you talking about?  Nick was a 2-win player his last while with the Orioles.  He was a 2-win player with the Braves.  I guess it's somewhat notable that he just kept being a 1-2 win player for years instead of being forced out of the league.

[Redskins Rick]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Manny will almost certainly finish this year with 50+ rWAR.  Here's a complete list of non-steroid-tainted, retired players with 50+ WAR through age 29 who aren't in the Hall:

1. Andruw Jones
2. Nobody else

Even including steroid guys the list is just ARod and Bonds. Cesar Cedeno and Sherry Magee just missed the 50 WAR cutoff.

Jones will probably, eventually make the Hall.  Manny would have to retire in the next couple years or have a Chris Davis extended collapse to not be inducted.

 

Jones really needs to be in the HOF, just one of the reasons, the HOF voting system is a hot mess.

[DrungoHazewood]

On 5/22/2022 at 9:44 PM, BohKnowsBmore said:

If I were able to assume health going forward, I would say he's almost a shoe-in even with merely average production in his mid-30s.

The Hall has a weird de facto standard where you're mostly inducted based on peak but you have to have some threshold of bulk before they'll take you seriously.  So someone who was awesome for five years and then okay for five will be considered less of a candidate than someone who was awesome for five years, okay for five, and just hung around another five.

Just picking an example... Enos Slaughter probably doesn't get inducted if he didn't spend six years as a pinch hitter and platoon player at the end of his career.  If Dwight Gooden had been able to put up 5-6 random seasons of 180-200 innings and 4.00 ERA in his 30s he'd probably be in the Hall. David Wright would probably have strong support if he'd put up 5-6 average years in his 30s.

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Jones really needs to be in the HOF, just one of the reasons, the HOF voting system is a hot mess.

The old writers don't believe defensive metrics (even though Jones was considered an elite CF during his career), they suspect Jones was on 'roids, and they'll point to his rapid decline as why he's not worthy.  Yes, there are a number of fundamental flaws with the Hall of Fame voting system(s).  But that's been the case since the 1930s.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The old writers don't believe defensive metrics (even though Jones was considered an elite CF during his career), they suspect Jones was on 'roids, and they'll point to his rapid decline as why he's not worthy.  Yes, there are a number of fundamental flaws with the Hall of Fame voting system(s).  But that's been the case since the 1930s.

And he's a .254 career hitter.

Ozzie Smith batted .262.  Bill Mazeroski batted .260.  Apparently it's okay for elite, defense first infielders to have low batting averages and make the Hall but not an outfielder.  Only .006 points behind Maz but .25 looks waaaaay different than .26 does.  And Jones also doesn't have a MOMENT like Maz did.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

And he's a .254 career hitter.

Ozzie Smith batted .262.  Bill Mazeroski batted .260.  Apparently it's okay for elite, defense first infielders to have low batting averages and make the Hall but not an outfielder.  Only .006 points behind Maz but .25 looks waaaaay different than .26 does.  And Jones also doesn't have a MOMENT like Maz did.

 

Perhaps most importantly, Maz never came close to election by the BBWAA.  He was elected by a Vet's Committee 29 years after he retired.  I'm reasonably confident Andruw Jones will be inducted sometime between now and 2041.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Markakis had one season in Atlanta where he was a somewhat better-than-average player.  His last year in Baltimore was about as good as any year he had with the Braves.

Verlander's last year-and-three-quarters in Detroit he was worth about nine wins over replacement, he was probably one of the top 10 or 20 pitchers in baseball.

Even if Manny did sign a huge extension with the Orioles it's unlikely he would have remained with the team through a five-year scorched Earth rebuild.

Probably the best we could have hoped for is that he would have brought back more in a trade if he had several years to go on an extended contract, rather than being a two month rental.  But yes, it would have made no sense to keep him given the state of the franchise.   On the other hand, if signing Manny had kept them from signing Davis, then maybe you look at an alternative other than a total teardown.   

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

On the other hand, if signing Manny had kept them from signing Davis, then maybe you look at an alternative other than a total teardown.  

Corn will have to grade this one, but maybe something like:

January 2016 - Orioles give Manny Machado, not Chris Davis, nine figures

July 2016 - 1st round compensation picks included Eric Lauer, Dane Dunning, Will Smith, Dylan Carlson and Dakota Hudson, to cherry pick the seeming winners 6 years out.    And Cory Sedlock.

We could have stood to get the Lance Lynn-Alex Cobb thing* right during the 2017-2018 offseason.

Grayson and Adley likely have different color laundry in this multiverse.

*presuming that even was a thing, and not my tinfoil notion that Brady told Cobb early in the offseason "we're giving you all the money" #HandlingTheNegotiation and Cobb spent all winter trying to figure out how not to have to go to Baltimore and that shallow shallow LF wall.

[btdart20]

7 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

And he's a .254 career hitter.

Ozzie Smith batted .262.  Bill Mazeroski batted .260.  Apparently it's okay for elite, defense first infielders to have low batting averages and make the Hall but not an outfielder.  Only .006 points behind Maz but .25 looks waaaaay different than .26 does.  And Jones also doesn't have a MOMENT like Maz did.

 

 

7 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Perhaps most importantly, Maz never came close to election by the BBWAA.  He was elected by a Vet's Committee 29 years after he retired.  I'm reasonably confident Andruw Jones will be inducted sometime between now and 2041.

And Bill Mazeroski also has one of the most, if not the most, iconic HRs ever.  Career work be damned, it's about the moment in time for that guy.  What every kid dreams of...  

Insert Curt Schilling plug here...

Edited May 27, 2022 by btdart20