"Old" guys are dominating baseball this season

[tinman]

I use the word "old" in quotation marks. 30 is young in real life. In baseball it's considered the end of youth and the beggining of decline. Hell, in recent years I've heard that 28 starts the decline. Well, it sure ain't looking that way in baseball this season. 27 has long been considered the season a hitter will break out and produce a monster season. And maybe that is the case as a general rule. But looking at history suggests otherwise. Do great hitters really fall off a cliff after 27? From I've seen they do not. It's become en vogue to avoid handing out contracts to players over 30.

 

The idea that early 30s is "post peak" seems odd to me. Plenty of players have had their peaks in their early 30s. In fact, among great hitters early 30s seems to be not the beginning of the decline phase, but rather the absolute zenith for many if not the majority of great hitters. Rod Carew, Willie Mays, Miguel Cabrera, Pete Rose, Albert Pujols, Joe Morgan, Ichiro Suzuki, etc. All of these guys didn't just stave off decline in their early 30s, they put the throttle down and had their peak career seasons. 

 

Look at the current top 10 in OPS

1. Trout (30)

2. Judge (30)

3. Machado (29)

4. Ramirez (29)

5. Martinez (34)

6.Goldschmidt (34)

7. Devers (25)

8. Cron (32)

9. Harper (29)

10. Betts (29)

 

Interesting as there is only one player under the age of 29 in the MLB top 10. Is this really the season of the "old" guy? Or are we just returning to a more normal environment?

[Can_of_corn]

We are talking about the general population of players not the top few when we are talking about aging curves.

You list a group of Hall of Famers as examples of guys that were good past 30.  Well sure, that's why they are HoF players.  I was just talking about Jason Heyward.  If his peak had extended until 32, instead of 25, he'd be a hall candidate.  If Andruw Jones' peak had last into his 30's he'd be in the hall.  If Markakis' power number hadn't dried up after hitting 25 he'd be a hall candidate.

It isn't surprising that former MVPs like Trout, Harper, Betts and Judge are doing well.

That being said I'd take Soto over all of them.

Interesting current top 10 list.  I hadn't realized it was currently skewing that strongly toward the older players.  I don't think it will be as extreme at the end of the season.

[tinman]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

We are talking about the general population of players not the top few when we are talking about aging curves.

You list a group of Hall of Famers as examples of guys that were good past 30.  Well sure, that's why they are HoF players.  I was just talking about Jason Heyward.  If his peak had extended until 32, instead of 25, he'd be a hall candidate.  If Andruw Jones' peak had last into his 30's he'd be in the hall.  If Markakis' power number hadn't dried up after hitting 25 he'd be a hall candidate.

It isn't surprising that former MVPs like Trout, Harper, Betts and Judge are doing well.

That being said I'd take Soto over all of them.

Interesting current top 10 list.  I hadn't realized it was currently skewing that strongly toward the older players.  I don't think it will be as extreme at the end of the season.

 

Interesting. Also, the best players tend to have the best seasons as well. So it's not abnormal for the league to be dominated by superstars in their early 30s. You did point out some guys who fizzled out after posting strong early career seasons. 

 

My point was it's not like these guys were maintaining their level of play into their early 30s. They actually hit the throttle down and were better than ever. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, tinman said:

 

Interesting. Also, the best players tend to have the best seasons as well. So it's not abnormal for the league to be dominated by superstars in their early 30s. You did point out some guys who fizzled out after posting strong early career seasons. 

 

My point was it's not like these guys were maintaining their level of play into their early 30s. They actually hit the throttle down and were better than ever. 

Yep, it can happen.

Look at how unusual Cruz's career arc has been.

I'm cautious by nature, I'd rather not bet on a guy being an exception.

[interloper]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yep, it can happen.

Look at how unusual Cruz's career arc has been.

I'm cautious by nature, I'd rather not bet on a guy being an exception.

I'm really curious about how Judge's next contract goes. Good as he is I cannot see that being a contract that works out in the long term. 

[spiritof66]

3 hours ago, tinman said:

 

Interesting. Also, the best players tend to have the best seasons as well. So it's not abnormal for the league to be dominated by superstars in their early 30s. You did point out some guys who fizzled out after posting strong early career seasons. 

 

My point was it's not like these guys were maintaining their level of play into their early 30s. They actually hit the throttle down and were better than ever. 

I sometimes think we -- and maybe GMs as well -- get too invested in relying on the "normal" arc of a career as a player ages. There's some question about when players "normally" peak.  

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-baseball-players-age-investigating-the-age-27-theory/ 

https://eutawstreetreport.com/age-27-baseball-myth/

And even once you've decided what you think normal peak age is, there are some players whose performance deviates from it. I expect that teams have ways to slice and dice that among, for example, power hitters, guys who rely on speed, high-velocity pitchers, guys who've avoided serious injuries, etc. It's one of those areas where I hope the Orioles have a lot more information than we do.

 

 

[bpilktree]

Most the younger guys are swingers and very aggressive so there OPS is pulled down because of lower OBP.  The veteran guys have learned the strike zone and will take a walk.  As you age you usually get more patient in baseball and life.   I also think older veteran guys might stay in big better shape and come prepared more then younger guys to spring training but as the season goes along they might wear down faster then a younger player.  

[Frobby]

So before we go off to far on this tangent, here are the AL OPS splits by age so far this year:

25 or under .702

26-30 .681

31-35 .662

36+ .646

 

[eddie83]

Last year after the season I looked at WAR for position players. Don’t recall if I did top 50 or so per league. It was dominated by players under 30. Most obviously with their original team. 
 

It wasn’t surprising just reinforced what I thought. 

[eddie83]

Real quick look in AL last year rWAR. 
 

Top 27 position players. Only 3 were 30 and older. 
 

Semien  age 30

Sal Perez age 31

Altuve age 31

 

15 -top 52 were 30 and up. 
 

9 -top 40 were 30 and up. 

[eddie83]

In NL 

17 -in top 50 were age 30 and up

12 -in top 40

5 -in top 23

[MarCakes21]

11 hours ago, eddie83 said:

In NL 

17 -in top 50 were age 30 and up

12 -in top 40

5 -in top 23

How does this rank for overall percentage of players?  I imagine that the league is probably only 30% over 30.  Now many of those 24-26 AAAA guys will never end up as real big leaguers but they make up a strong part of the league.

[TommyPickles]

There's definitely some old pitchers dominating:

Verlander (39): 8 starts, 1.22 ERA, 156 ERA+

Wainwright (40): 8 starts, 2.87 ERA, 133 ERA+

Scherzer: (37): 8 starts, 2.54 ERA, 153 ERA+

Rich Hill: (41): 8 starts, 3.86 ERA, 106 ERA+

Romo: (39): 8 games, 1.13 ERA, 340 ERA+ 

 

And down in the Mexican League, 49 year old Bartolo Colon is reportedly still hoping for a chance to pitch in the majors this year. He went 6-2 with a 4.55 ERA last season at 48.

 

 

 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

Total 2022 rWAR, non-pitchers, by age (number at each age):

21: 2.4 (3)

22: 1.2 (11)

23: 5.9 (24)

24: 9.5 (26)

25: 19.2 (57)

26: 6.3 (50)

27: 25.4 (77)

28: 17.6 (55)

29: 23.2 (57)

30: 15.9 (42)

31: 9.3 (43)

32: 15.1 (37)

33: 3.2 (21)

34: 5.4 (13)

35: -0.2 (10)

36: 1.6 (4)

37: -0.5 (3)

38: -0.6 (5)

39: -0.7 (3)

40: 0.0 (0)

41: -0.2 (1)

42: 0.2 (1)

That looks typical to me.  Players are peaking around 27 as always.  The total value of all non-pitchers over the age of 34 is below replacement.

[eddie83]

5 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

How does this rank for overall percentage of players?  I imagine that the league is probably only 30% over 30.  Now many of those 24-26 AAAA guys will never end up as real big leaguers but they make up a strong part of the league.

This is interesting from last year.
AL by OPS in 2021

25 and under .727

26-30 .732

31-35 .730

36 and up .731

PA’s by age 

25 and under  19,521

26-30      50,583

31-35       17,721

36 and up  3,298

 

so ages 26-30 had more PA’s then all other ages combined by roughly 10,000