30% of the season over; How are the O's doing?

[wildcard]

The O's are on a pace to go 66-96 for the season.   Better than last years 52 wins but nothing to get too excited about.   However, the O's have had one of the toughest first two months schedules in baseball.  They have played 32 of their 49 games vs teams with winning records.   That changes in June and we will see if that changes anything.

The offense is ranked 24th in OBP, 27th in slugging and 26th in OPS.   In other words they could use some help.

Austin Hays 297/361/456/816 deserve to be leading off.  His offense and superior defense makes him a two way threat and if he can stay healthy he could be O's All- Star representative.

Trey Mancini has a 298/368/385/754 on the season. He heated up in May with a 358/440/442/882 which is very good but he only has 2 doubles and 2 homers in 95 at bats in May which makes me wonder where the power has gone.  Mancini looks better defensively at 1B than Mountcastle.

Anthony Santander is hitting the opposite of Trey.  Low averages but hitting for power with RBI productions. On the season he has 8 homers and 25 RBI to go with  219/335/391/726.  He is covering much more ground in the outfield than last year thanks to being healthy.

Rougned Odor, the guy we love to hate, has actually been pretty productive in May. He has 4 homers and 17 RBI in 92 at bats.   If he could do that every month he would have 24 homers and 102 RBI.  Of course he will not do that but it shows his production to go with a 250/258/489/747 in May.   This guy can really turn a double play at 2B and his relay throws to the plate are very strong.

Ryan Mountcastle's offense since coming back from his wrist injury makes me think he is not at full strength.   In 36 at bats since May 21st, he has one homer and no other extra base hits to go with a .194 average.  Yes, its SSS but it deserves watching.   If he does not heat up he could be headed for another IL stint.  What I will say about his defense is that he is still learning. The O's need Ryan's healthy bat in the lineup.

Cedric Mullins is lost offensively at the moment.  241/303/372/675 in 199 at bats is not what the O's need from Cedric. His defense is very good and his 11 steals in 13 attempts are the best things about his game right now. 

Ramon Urias has taken over 3B.  And he looks good there.   He has a 765 OPS in May after a slow April.  I look for him to play a lot this season.

Jorge Mateo has the range and the arm the O's have been looking for at SS.  He makes some errors but so far they look like they are worth having his defense in the lineup.  He is hitting near the Mendoza line but his 13 steals in 14 tries turns singles into doubles.

Adley and Chirinos are all about defense and helping the pitchers so far.   Maybe the hitting will come but we don't know when.

The Bullpen is the shining star of the team.  The relievers ranked 5th in  MLB with a 3.19 ERA.  They hold the opponents down and allow the offense to make a run late in the games.   I can't say enough about Lopez, Bautista, Perez, Akin, Tate, Gillaspie, Diplan, Krehbiel,  and Baker.  And there looks to be more coming when needed with Vespi, Uvila, Reyes and Sedlock.   Anyone that did not appreciate Sedlock yesterday was not watching.  After Zimmermann put ball after ball in the middle  of the plate, Sedlock was pitching on the black for three innings.

The starters are a work in progress IMO. Yes, there are 26th in the majors with a 4.96 ERA.   But the best is yet to come.  

Jordan Lyles has a 4.26 ERA in 10 starts and 57 IP which puts him 8th in innings in the AL.  The innings are what Elias signed him for and the ERA is better than expected.

Tyler Wells (4.30 ERA) and Bruce Zimmermann (4.58 ERA) are pleasant surprises. Tyler is on an innings limit but he should be good in the rotation for another couple of months.   Yes, Zimmermann just blew up vs the Red Sox but he has kept the O's in most games so far this season.

Kyle Bradish has not found it yet and has a 7.31 ERA.   He will get another few chances but with Grayson arriving probably this week and Kremer pitching well  at AAA it will not be long before Bradish is fighting for his rotation spot.

June will tells us a lot more about this team as they play many below .500 teams.   If the O's improve in June they may avoid a selloff at the deadline.  But if they don't  improve expect Mancini, Lyles and Odor to be on the block and then the rest of the season goes down hill from there.

 

[Frobby]

Nice summary.   I’m not putting too much stock in the easier strength of schedule coming up.   I’ve just seen too many times in the past where the team has stumbled over a supposedly easy stretch of games, or thrived when the schedule was difficult.   

Overall, I think the team will hit as well or better than it has to date.   They were ice cold for most of April with some players hitting into extremely bad luck, then they had a stretch of about a week in May when three of their better hitters were all out at the same time.  The O’s were 14th in the AL in OPS for April (.604 vs. league average .669), but 9th in May (.681 vs. .695).   I feel like May is a more accurate barometer.   I also expect Adley to hit once he gets his land legs.   So, mark it down that I think the offense will be pretty close to league average.   

Pitching will decide where the team goes from here.   In April our starters were 11th in ERA (3.76 vs. 3.59 league average); in May, a distant 14th (5.55 vs. 3.90).   The bullpen has held thngs together so far; 8th in April (3.46 vs. 3.35), 4th in May (2.98 vs. 3.92).   But I worry that the bullpen won’t hold up if the starters continue their May trend and the pen is forced to cover too many innings.   I’m praying Rodriguez will be what we hope and be a reliable source of 5-7 innings once he’s called up.  

Overall, as I said elsewhere, I think this team could win 55 games or 70.   Pitching will determine which it is.  


 

[sportsfan8703]

@wildcard nice write up. Really well done. 
 

Why not sell off Mancini, Santander, Lyles, Odor, and López. Tate too if he has value.

Some of those are better than others, but I would specifically sell high on the bullpen arms. We need RF open for Stowers, and DH open for AR. I wouldn’t say it would be a firesale but it would be selling our most expensive players for younger/cheaper options. 
 

Overall, we’re playing better than I expected, especially with the bats being cold. I expect the offense to bounce back if healthy. I don’t think trading the players mentioned hurts next year’s chances either. Especially if we could get some pitching depth. 

[InsideCoroner]

It’s a bad team, but it’s an eminently more watchable one. If they lose 95 games but are only losing most of those by two runs or less, I would consider that serious progress. Many signs of encouragement, even if we might still be drafting high next year. 

[scottbbfm]

We were 7-14 in April and are now 14-15 in May. Several of the loses this month coming during games that featured very weak lineups due to injury (Tigers series). With the addition of AR and Stowers probably next up, we just seem better positioned to deal with injuries on the offense.  Add in Grayson and potentially Hall I have to think May is a much better reflection of this team than April.  

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, scottbbfm said:

We were 7-14 in April and are now 14-15 in May. Several of the loses this month coming during games that featured very weak lineups due to injury (Tigers series). With the addition of AR and Stowers probably next up, we just seem better positioned to deal with injuries on the offense.  Add in Grayson and potentially Hall I have to think May is a much better reflection of this team than April.  

I think the combination of the two months is the best reflection of the team.  

[Just Regular]

June is Grayson's month and I feel a good month can get Hall here around 4th of July.

I expect the White Sox to go on a run and make it seven challengers for the six berths; the Angels and Twins feel the flimsiest of the current playoff spot holders.

I hope in the second half to see the As Is $30mm Orioles play like the 8th best team in the league, and entering the offseason not feel like outplaying the 2023 Angels/Twins is any sort of ridiculousness even if payroll grows by $15mm, not $50mm.

Re-balance that schedule and unleash the entire AL East on the rest of baseball.   

[eddie83]

13 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

June is Grayson's month and I feel a good month can get Hall here around 4th of July.

I expect the White Sox to go on a run and make it seven challengers for the six berths; the Angels and Twins feel the flimsiest of the current playoff spot holders.

I hope in the second half to see the As Is $30mm Orioles play like the 8th best team in the league, and entering the offseason not feel like outplaying the 2023 Angels/Twins is any sort of ridiculousness even if payroll grows by $15mm, not $50mm.

Re-balance that schedule and unleash the entire AL East on the rest of baseball.   

I don’t trust the Angels. I think the Twins can hang. Solid lineup. Underachiever last year. 
 

I think NYY, TB, TOR, MINN, CWS and HOU are the playoff teams. I still think Boston will hang around. Long term that 3rd WC will keep more teams engaged deeper into season. 

[foxfield]

14-15 in May.  With a game to go.  Not a lot of off days.  I am impressed really.  No, this isn't a good team, though there are glimmers of hope.  It is the makings of a decent foundation.  Defensively the O's seem better defensively by orders of magnitude. The pen, as Wildcard shows above has been spectacular.  These two things are new for the Orioles.  

The offense should improve, but it will require the starting pitching to improve to hold a near .500 pace.  I am cautiously optimistic, but if we are still 26th in the Majors at the all star break, the bull pen will have a hard time staying top 5 in the Majors.

And as always, it will be the pitching that determines which side of 60+ wins the O's get.  I hoped for 67 and they are on a pace this AM for 68.

Regardless, if we can trade anyone for young playable talent, esp pitching...we have to do it.