Underrated: Trey Mancini

[Frobby]

Along with just just about everyone else, I assume that Trey Mancini is likely to be traded this year and won’t be back next year.   And, I assume Kyle Stowers is likely to replace him.   

I think that’s all logical, but I’m just going to come out and say it: Trey Mancini is underrated and won’t be that easy to replace.   

Right now Trey is at 134 OPS+ and has been worth 1.5 rWAR in 1/3 of a season.  He’s a reliably above average hitter, with a career 117 OPS+.   And as I watch him this year, I won’t be surprised if the best is yet to come this season.   He’s really swinging it well, but the power hasn’t quite been there and the new wall has hurt him.   

I don’t think it’s likely that Stowers will ever be as good a hitter as Trey is.   Will be be better defensively?  Sure.   Will he ever have a 3.7 rWAR season like Trey did in 2019 (and which he may top this year)?    Will he be able to match Trey’s career 9.6 rWAR (and counting)?   Maybe, but the odds are against him.  

The truth is, a 9.6 rWAR player is nothing to sneeze at, and not that easy to replace.   The O’s have only drafted seven players this century with a higher career WAR total than Mancini.  

So, I’m not saying we should keep Mancini.   I’m saying we should appreciate what he has accomplished, and not just assume he’ll be easy to replace.   And I haven’t even mentioned the example he set coming back from cancer.   



 

[maybenxtyr]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Along with just just about everyone else, I assume that Trey Mancini is likely to be traded this year and won’t be back next year.   And, I assume Kyle Stowers is likely to replace him.   

I think that’s all logical, but I’m just going to come out and say it: Trey Mancini is underrated and won’t be that easy to replace.   

Right now Trey is at 134 OPS+ and has been worth 1.5 rWAR in 1/3 of a season.  He’s a reliably above average hitter, with a career 117 OPS+.   And as I watch him this year, I won’t be surprised if the best is yet to come this season.   He’s really swinging it well, but the power hasn’t quite been there and the new wall has hurt him.   

I don’t think it’s likely that Stowers will ever be as good a hitter as Trey is.   Will be be better defensively?  Sure.   Will he ever have a 3.7 rWAR season like Trey did in 2019 (and which he may top this year)?    Will he be able to match Trey’s career 9.6 rWAR (and counting)?   Maybe, but the odds are against him.  

The truth is, a 9.6 rWAR player is nothing to sneeze at, and not that easy to replace.   The O’s have only drafted seven players this century with a higher career WAR total than Mancini.  

So, I’m not saying we should keep Mancini.   I’m saying we should appreciate what he has accomplished, and not just assume he’ll be easy to replace.   And I haven’t even mentioned the example he set coming back from cancer.   



 

Good stuff. It's really amazing how well his career has played out because I really don't remember a lot of hype or recognition from him in the Minors. 

 

I agree that it's probably a pipe dream that Stowers puts up a 10 career WAR. I think he will probably hit for more power than Trey but at an OBP and average hit.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, maybenxtyr said:

Good stuff. It's really amazing how well his career has played out because I really don't remember a lot of hype or recognition from him in the Minors. 

 

I agree that it's probably a pipe dream that Stowers puts up a 10 career WAR. I think he will probably hit for more power than Trey but at an OBP and average hit.

Don’t get me wrong, Stowers could turn out to be a better player than Trey.   Someone suggested Luke Scott with a better glove as a ceiling, and if so, that’s a 15-20 WAR player.   But in the range of possible outcomes, over 9.6 rWAR is probably a 75th percentile outcome for Stowers.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Don’t get me wrong, Stowers could turn out to be a better player than Trey.   Someone suggested Luke Scott with a better glove as a ceiling, and if so, that’s a 15-20 WAR player.   But in the range of possible outcomes, over 9.6 rWAR is probably a 75th percentile outcome for Stowers.   

That was floor not ceiling

[accinfo]

I agree about Trey.  You add in the person he seems to be and what he has gone through it will be sad to see him go if that is what ends up happening.  You better get something pretty good in return for him.  If I woke up tomorrow and he was your DH signed for the next 3 years that would put a smile on my face.  

[maybenxtyr]

17 minutes ago, accinfo said:

I agree about Trey.  You add in the person he seems to be and what he has gone through it will be sad to see him go if that is what ends up happening.  You better get something pretty good in return for him.  If I woke up tomorrow and he was your DH signed for the next 3 years that would put a smile on my face.  

I don't mind having him on the team either... it's hard to see a scenario where keeping him makes sense though. I don't expect much back in a trade. The move would be more about opening a position for someone in the Minors like Stowers.

[wildcard]

I will say it again.  One of the big problems with this team is it has no depth.  One of the regulars gets hurt and they go on a losing streak.   So don't trade Mancini.

Pick up his option.    Put  a rotate into effect where Mancini, Mountcastle, Hays, Mullins, Santander,  and Stowers  have a day off every 5th days.  It gets them rest.  Keep them healthier.  Puts are productive player on the bench to be used as a pinch hitter.  Its good for everyone.

Pick up Trey's option.

They only thing I would trade Trey for is a very good starting major league pitcher and don't see that happening.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

Mancini is my perfect one!!!

[tntoriole]

7 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

Good stuff. It's really amazing how well his career has played out because I really don't remember a lot of hype or recognition from him in the Minors. 

 

I agree that it's probably a pipe dream that Stowers puts up a 10 career WAR. I think he will probably hit for more power than Trey but at an OBP and average hit.

Trey has been a favorite of mine since I saw him play for the Keys.. he had that sound off the bat that ML stars have.  Even then… I remember him in a game in Myrtle Beach and he hit a line drive homer to center that was still rising when it hit the background.  One of the hardest hit balls I have ever seen.  

He is a very good player. 

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I will say it again.  One of the big problems with this team is it has no depth.  One of the regulars gets hurt and they go on a losing streak.   So don't trade Mancini.

Pick up his option.   

It’s a mutual option.  Trey would likely decline.

[oh-wee-ohs]

He's learning to aim towards the bullpen. 

[wildcard]

43 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

It’s a mutual option.  Trey would likely decline.

So they negotiate.

[OriolesMagic83]

Is Mancinin the better 1B?  I wonder if Mountcastle would make that play on Mateo's throw.

[yark14]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Is Mancinin the better 1B?  I wonder if Mountcastle would make that play on Mateo's throw.

You can't say definitely yes or no.  Mountcastle has made some nice grabs as well.

[NashLumber]

6 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Mancini is my perfect one!!!

This is endearing and brings back memories of cindyluvsbrady. I think she used to say this about Brian Roberts back in the day. She was the first Hangouter I ever met, at Cal's induction to the HOF.