Santander vs. Mancini

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

This is a good point. I think we’ve been taking for granted that Mancini is all signed up for this year. As of now, it’s looking like he will opt out for a much bigger pay day. It’s looking like Mancini is really close to his peak, but he’s a rental. I think he’ll fetch a better return than Santander. I think we’ll trade both. 

Mancini does not have an opt out clause in his contract.

[SteveA]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Mancini does not have an opt out clause in his contract.

It's a mutual option so if he declines it he is a free agent.   So a de facto opt out.

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Mancini does not have an opt out clause in his contract.

There's a mutual option.

Trey Mancini Contract Details, Salaries, & Earnings | Spotrac

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, SteveA said:

It's a mutual option so if he declines it he is a free agent.   So a de facto opt out.

The way I think of an opt out is that it happens sometime during a season.   Mancini's mutual option is decided sometime after the season is over.

[SteveA]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The way I think of an opt out is that it happens sometime during a season.   Mancini's mutual option is decided sometime after the season is over.

Nope, opt-outs happen after the season.   Clayton Kershaw had one last year.   He exercised it after the season, became a free agent, and then wound up re-signing with LA anyway.   Carlos Correa has one after year 1 of the 3 year deal he signed with the Twins, and is expected to exercise it and become a free agent.   After the season.   He can't exercise it now.

 

[MarCakes21]

54 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I'm not talking Verlander here.   Duquette traded Guthrie and Lindstrom for Hammel.  He also trade Hader, Hoes and a compensation pick for Bud Norris.  (There is no way Elias trades a comp pick but you can see the level of trade I am talking about).

Next year the O's have Grayson, DL, T Wells and Bradish plus Means later in the 2023.   They need another solid starter but it does not have to be a #1 or #2.

So what pitchers are you targeting?  I think some of the ones that signed this offseason and potentially underperforming could be had for Mancini maybe straight up in a position of need?  (Rodriguez, Gray, Stroman, Gaussman, Berrios)

[Just Regular]

23 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

There's a mutual option.

Trey Mancini Contract Details, Salaries, & Earnings | Spotrac

The mutual option is really window dressing.   I see it as evidence the Economic Analyst is making some widgets that have earned the team some PR and kept hope alive, but the Venn Diagram circles of Club likes this deal and Player likes this deal have small overlapping sections.    Think about how Elias treats every draftee.

I think where the number is set...if Mancini performs at a level commensurate with where I could picture Elias activating the Club half, he's probably going to have done well enough he is going to be shooting for Soler money.

It is a PR out for the organization in 2023 if Mancini maintains a 130 OPS+ type career year, and then "Trey had an option but he didn't exercise it."

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

So what pitchers are you targeting?  I think some of the ones that signed this offseason and potentially underperforming could be had for Mancini maybe straight up in a position of need?  (Rodriguez, Gray, Stroman, Gaussman, Berrios)

Gausman has not underperformed. He has the same ERA as last year and leads MLB in FIP and K/W! 

I'd be seeking to get second tier prospects from a team that is seeking to win now, like Bradish level guys. A team that is trying to win now isn't going to want to give up part of their starting rotation and plug one hole by opening another.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

So what pitchers are you targeting?  I think some of the ones that signed this offseason and potentially underperforming could be had for Mancini maybe straight up in a position of need?  (Rodriguez, Gray, Stroman, Gaussman, Berrios)

Rodriguez 4/63m   not happening

Gray   3/41m  not happening

Stroman  1/25m  send about 15m with him and maybe

Gausman 4/89m   Nope

Berrios   6/120m  Nope

 

[btdart20]

27 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The mutual option is really window dressing.   I see it as evidence the Economic Analyst is making some widgets that have earned the team some PR and kept hope alive, but the Venn Diagram circles of Club likes this deal and Player likes this deal have small overlapping sections.    Think about how Elias treats every draftee.

I think where the number is set...if Mancini performs at a level commensurate with where I could picture Elias activating the Club half, he's probably going to have done well enough he is going to be shooting for Soler money.

It is a PR out for the organization in 2023 if Mancini maintains a 130 OPS+ type career year, and then "Trey had an option but he didn't exercise it."

You had me at Venn Diagram.  #swoon  

Seems like a solid read on it.  I was going down the options straddle path mentally, but without the PR spin.  No way both sides like the contract if he's not traded.  

[InsideCoroner]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m not sure I know what he is.  His walk rate is way up this year.   His power is down somewhat, maybe not disproportionately to other players.  His BA is down a bit over previous seasons.  His OBP is easily at a career high, his SLG is a career low if you exclude his first two seasons where he didn’t play much.   So I’m not sure where he settles in.   

His walk rate and OBP are up this year, but only because of April. Since May 1st his OBP is below his career average, and I don’t see a much different hitter lately than who he was before. I like Santander, but I have say he underwhelms me more often that not for a guy hitting in the heart of the order. 

[Big Mac]

I think Santander has pretty much established what he is at this point, a fringe ML regular.  He has a .298 career OBP and .743 OPS, is relegated to corner OF and DH and his defense is and will continue to decline as his speed falls off.  I don't know how much value we are going to get there. 

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Rodriguez 4/63m   not happening

Gray   3/41m  not happening

Stroman  1/25m  send about 15m with him and maybe

Gausman 4/89m   Nope

Berrios   6/120m  Nope

 

Never thought I would say this, but I would love to see Gausman on this team.  I can't imagine the Blue Jays would trade him.  If they did, they price would be very high.

[btdart20]

@Just Regularposted this in the Kyle Stowers thread, think it belongs here too but can't figure out how to copy it correctly outside of the original thread...

"Today Fangraphs Playoff Odds give 18 of the 30 Clubs chances of 10% or better, they have 36 1B/DH positions.

Today Trey Mancini's 138 OPS+ is 9th out of 37 counting the 36 guys B-Ref considers 1B/DH starters for those teams, plus him.

Notable (sub) Replacement Level Killers:

Red Sox 1B, White Sox DH, Guardians DH, Astros 1B, Mariners DH, Braves DH, Brewers DH"

I'd be shopping the M's system because I think it was ranked second to the O's.  Then the Guardians, Braves, and Brewers because they seem to know how to develop pitchers.  

Mariners Top Prospects (mlb.com)

Juan Pinto (17) ranked #27.  He was among the top international pitcher signed in 20-21.  Bryce Miller looks interesting as well. 

[Just Regular]

I'll do cartwheels and backflips for Trey's sake if/when a transaction putting him in this October's mix happens, but very good chance it is at least 50 more days of waiting.

https://www.mlb.com/news/every-2021-mlb-trade-deadline-deal

Joc went on 7/15 last year as the Braves had multiple OF spots to fill, but deadlines inspire action and it'll be surprising to me if anyone meets Elias' ask and/or he lets go of Pie in the Sky hopes before the last 72 hours.