Heston Kjerstad 2022

[LookinUp]

On 10/30/2022 at 9:29 AM, Frobby said:

From David Laurila’s Sunday blog:

Justyn-Henry Malloy was a guest on Friday’s episode of FanGraphs Audio, and one of the subjects addressed by the 22-year-old Atlanta Braves outfield prospect was batting practice power. Malloy is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League, and I wanted to to know which of his Scottsdale Solar Sox teammates puts on the best show. His answer came with little hesitation.

“Heston, [Kjerstad]” replied Malloy. “Period. Hands down, Heston. He puts on an absolute display. I’ll be in the outfield, trying to get my work in, but I can’t really get much outfield work in when balls are going over the wall. At the same time, he’s not trying to hit home runs in BP. Now, I’m not in Heston’s head, but it’s like he could clip balls — he doesn’t get [them] well — and they’re still homers. That’s just a strong human. Credit to him and what he does. He’s special.”

Kjerstad, whom the Baltimore Orioles drafted second overall in 2020 out of the University of Arkansas, has five home runs and a 1.010 OPS in 81 Fall League at-bats. Malloy, Atlanta’s sixth round pick in 2021, began this year in High-A and advanced to Triple-A before joining the Solar Sox.

 

This is wonderful to hear.

I do wonder if Aberdeen's issues this year were about the stadium/lighting, developmental steps they're focusing on there or coaching. It does seem to drag down even our top talent for whatever reason.

[Frobby]

Roch talks to an unidentified scout from another team about Kjerstad:

Good size kid, good frame,” the scout said. “He was red-hot the first week he was out there. I will say the pitching is kind of watered down versus what it’s been in the past. I don’t feel like the pitching quality is nearly as good as what it’s been in years past, but with that being said, he looks good physically. It’s really good to see him out there, just given everything that he’s been through. To see him healthy."

The scout offered a comp to a player who just hit 46 home runs this season to lead the National League.

“I kind of equate it to that Kyle Schwarber-type role," he said. "Pop at the plate, he hits it hard, and you take what you get on defense because you want to have the bat in the lineup every day. He’s interesting. He has a chance to be an everyday big leaguer. He’s got power to all fields. He can go to the off-gap like, it’s easy for him.

“They’ll probably do a good job of managing his reps next year since that’s his first full season, but as long as the past stuff doesn’t hinder him, he’s got a chance to be in the lineup every day. If it’s a constant kind of, you’ve got to manage his reps and he’s only going to play like 110 out of 162, it doesn’t hurt his value per se, you just look at the matchups and make sure you’re picking your right spots. If you’re facing a tough lefty starter-wise, then it’s, ‘Hey, we’re going to give you a blow today.’ But he was fun to watch, man. He really was.”

The scout really liked Kjerstad’s arm and grew to appreciate it in games rather than during drills before or after batting practice.

“He doesn’t put a lot of effort into his throws when he’s doing ins-outs, but then all of a sudden … I gave him an above-average arm because when he needs it, it’s there. He just doesn’t waste your time showing it to you in drills.”

* * *

“Especially in Camden Yards, [Kjerstad playing in RF] works,” he said. “It’s kind of a shorter porch, the high wall. You put him out there with the right center fielder, he’ll be fine defensively. And now with the left field fence being moved back and you need a little bit more range from your left fielder, that puts him as a right field/DH role for me."

Kjerstad already proved that he can overcome adversity, bounce back from the worst breaks. The sport and its fickle nature certainly won’t discourage him.

“I’m just really impressed by his overall work ethic,” the scout said. “It would have been easy for him to say, ‘Well, this happened unfortunately and I wasn’t able to live out my dream. But I got my money as a first round pick.’ But I think that speaks volumes to his character and his work ethic. And all of his teammates, everybody seems to gravitate toward him. He seems like he’s having a great time on the field.

“The diagnosis could have easily derailed his career, and it didn’t.”

[RZNJ]

There is mostly good stuff to be taken from what we've heard except for two things.

1. The strikeouts

2. Keith Law suggesting that he wasn't getting to high velocity and struggling with off-speed which kind of go hand in hand with the strikeout numbers.

 

But the plusses are numerous.

1. He's producing and showing power

2. He's pulling the ball with authority as well as going the other way

3. Seems like his teammates really like him

4. Seems to be in good shape, running well, and even getting reps in CF

5. No more physical setbacks and SHOULD be in the best shape of his Oriole career next spring.

 

[Sports Guy]

The "has a chance to be an everyday player" stuff doesn't instill a ton of confidence imo.  Could just be scout speak of course.

[Jim'sKid26]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The "has a chance to be an everyday player" stuff doesn't instill a ton of confidence imo.  Could just be scout speak of course.

Or he's so early in his arrested development that the scout doesn't feel like he can predict. After all, lots can go wrong with a powerful LH hitter who strikes out a lot.

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Or he's so early in his arrested development that the scout doesn't feel like he can predict. After all, lots can go wrong with a powerful LH hitter who strikes out a lot.

Which is what I meant by scout speak.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The "has a chance to be an everyday player" stuff doesn't instill a ton of confidence imo.  Could just be scout speak of course.

I think my big takeaway from the Fall League is that the big time power is back.  Whether he’ll connect often enough to be a productive major leaguer is still in question.   Still, I think getting him to the AFL was great, both in terms of him gaining confidence and recovering some of the reps he missed this year with the hamstring.   He’s done enough to start next year in Bowie, and we’ll see how he looks then.  

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

   He’s done enough to start next year in Bowie, and we’ll see how he looks then.  

While I agree with you, what specifically makes you say that? I think he will hit better in Bowie due to the better hitting environment, as opposed to Aberdeen, but his strike outs are rather worrisome. Even with the power. 

Does the performance in the AFL mean any more than say, Spring Training-for example, given what we know about the quality of the pitching in 2022 AFL?

[btdart20]

17 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

While I agree with you, what specifically makes you say that? I think he will hit better in Bowie due to the better hitting environment, as opposed to Aberdeen, but his strike outs are rather worrisome. Even with the power. 

Does the performance in the AFL mean any more than say, Spring Training-for example, given what we know about the quality of the pitching in 2022 AFL?

Personally, I wouldn't point to anything specific but how he's doing in the context of other hitters as support for a promotion to Bowie.  And he's putting up comparable stats with some of the top prospects in the game (Walker, Pages, Mervis, Lawlar...) in the same environment.  For additional context, many of his hitting 'competition' are at AA or AAA already. 

Is AFL a SSS?  Yes.  Is it AA level competition?  Seems like a mixed bag (A+ to AAA pitchers) with varying levels of success across those levels in the AFL too.

Dude's definitely a masher, there's no doubt of that.  But the only thing he really needs to prove is the ability to tap into game power (the impact of his K% doesn't have an overt negative impact his OPS) facing more savvy pitchers.  And the only way we'll know if he can do that (or learn to do that) is to face better pitching.  AA will be a big assessment time for Kjerstad.

[sportsfan8703]

20 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think my big takeaway from the Fall League is that the big time power is back.  Whether he’ll connect often enough to be a productive major leaguer is still in question.   Still, I think getting him to the AFL was great, both in terms of him gaining confidence and recovering some of the reps he missed this year with the hamstring.   He’s done enough to start next year in Bowie, and we’ll see how he looks then.  

Nailed it. This AFL was pretty much best case scenario for him. 

It’s not his fault that the O’s took him #2. It’s not his fault the Pandemic happened. It’s not his fault that he got sick with Myocarditis. 
 

This year was all about just getting some game time in, but he’s exceeded those expectations. I think we see even bigger flashes next year, but it will still be his first full pro season. 2024 is when I think he puts it all together. Age doesn’t matter here to me. 6+ years of MLB control over a big hulking slugger is about all you would expect anyways. 
 

To put things into perspective… he’s going to start the season only one level below DL Hall. 

[Can_of_corn]

28 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Nailed it. This AFL was pretty much best case scenario for him. 

It’s not his fault that the O’s took him #2. It’s not his fault the Pandemic happened. It’s not his fault that he got sick with Myocarditis. 
 

This year was all about just getting some game time in, but he’s exceeded those expectations. I think we see even bigger flashes next year, but it will still be his first full pro season. 2024 is when I think he puts it all together. Age doesn’t matter here to me. 6+ years of MLB control over a big hulking slugger is about all you would expect anyways. 
 

To put things into perspective… he’s going to start the season only one level below DL Hall. 

I had no idea that Hall had already been optioned to the minors!  When did that happen?

[Frobby]

21 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

While I agree with you, what specifically makes you say that? I think he will hit better in Bowie due to the better hitting environment, as opposed to Aberdeen, but his strike outs are rather worrisome. Even with the power. 

Does the performance in the AFL mean any more than say, Spring Training-for example, given what we know about the quality of the pitching in 2022 AFL?

Well, we don’t know that much other than it’s supposedly not as good as in the past.  Still, there are plenty of pitchers there with AA experience, so I’m expecting Kjerstad to break camp with Bowie and will be disappointed if he doesn’t.  

[sportsfan8703]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, we don’t know that much other than it’s supposedly not as good as in the past.  Still, there are plenty of pitchers there with AA experience, so I’m expecting Kjerstad to break camp with Bowie and will be disappointed if he doesn’t.  

I have to think that once he gets back to full strength, that the power should scare pitchers off more. Developmentally, this might be a good thing. He had to learn to make more contact, so now when he gets back to full strength his contact:damage ratio will be better. We could already be seeing that in the AFL and not just watered down pitching. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I have to think that once he gets back to full strength, that the power should scare pitchers off more. Developmentally, this might be a good thing. He had to learn to make more contact, so now when he gets back to full strength his contact:damage ratio will be better. We could already be seeing that in the AFL and not just watered down pitching. 

I think initially, the Orioles teach to maximize each swing and not worry about strikeouts.  Later on, there my be more attention to a two strike approach.  I'm not sure.   I certainly seems like Kjerstad is in the damage per contact phase right now.   12 of his 27 hits are for extra bases.   That's Stowers and Westburg territory.    However, 27 K's in 80 AB's is also in Stowers territory (2021 Stowers) so there's definitely some integration of power and contact that will be needed for him to be optimal.

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I think initially, the Orioles teach to maximize each swing and not worry about strikeouts.  Later on, there my be more attention to a two strike approach.  I'm not sure.   I certainly seems like Kjerstad is in the damage per contact phase right now.   12 of his 27 hits are for extra bases.   That's Stowers and Westburg territory.    However, 27 K's in 80 AB's is also in Stowers territory (2021 Stowers) so there's definitely some integration of power and contact that will be needed for him to be optimal.

Is there a threshhold for K% where we should all be concerned that a player will not be successful at the MLB level. I sense it is a moving target but a rough estimate of >25% seems like it might be a good round number. I know its different for power hitters but he's got some swing and miss to his game.