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O's are willing to move Tillman in right deal, per Roch

Sterling Bird

By Sterling Bird
in Orioles Talk

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

Posted
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That is one way to look at it…

I do not buy that logic though…

The O's could have had Tillman spend 2008 in A ball, obviously they did not.

The O's could have started Arrieta at AA, or at least promoted him there after May, obviously they did not.

The most important number, is not their stats… but their birthdate.

If you have one pitcher, that is two full years younger…. Putting up equal or better numbers at higher level, there is no way you can evaluate the older pitcher, putting up equal or lesser numbers at a lower level as the prospect with the higher upside.

All of that said, that does not mean that I do not believe it is possible they could trade Tillman… just that there is little reason to believe the O's hold Arrieta in higher-esteem.

You absolutely can. And this is what the Ian Kennedy comparisons were about mid-season.

But it appears your ignoring the more important point: determining who to keep and who to trade is about determining what a prospect's value on the market is relative to his value on the field. They may not view Arrieta as having a higher upside. But they may find that Tillman's value on the market exceeds his value on the field. Combine this with their feelings on Arrieta's imminent arrival at the ML level, and you've got your recipe for deciding who to trade.

You seem to be thinking about this as if trading or not trading someone were solely based upon whom a team likes more. It's not.

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

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Leitch is right about this, I'm not sure why anyone is arguing with him.

If you trade Tillman straight up for a pitcher who is further along than he is, you will necessarily wind up with someone with a lower ceiling. Jurrjens is a good example.

I don't think the Marlins would actually trade Volstad for Tillman.

If you trade Tillman it has to be in a package or for a hitter, which I'm not entirely sure we need.

Wait, he shouldn't get all the credit. ;)

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health55 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

health55

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His strikeout rates aren't good. Here's a good writeup on Volstad from before the 2008 season:

Everybody loves a strike-thrower, but that's really all Volstad looks like to me.

FanGraphs provided a more positive spin on Chris Volstad after the 2008 season:

Chris Volstad has always had a high profile as a former first round selection (16th overall) out of high school in 2005. He posted solid - but unspectacular - minor league numbers, mainly because of a low strikeout rates due to a reliance on the groundball. As he matures as a pitcher, he may strikeout more batters. Volstad allowed 193 hits in 168 2007 minor league innings, but rebounded to allow just 76 hits in 84.1 Major League innings. At 6-8 and 225 pounds, he has the body to be a workhorse for years to come and could be a more dominating Major League pitcher, than minor league, due to improved defence behind him.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-minor-review-of-2008-the-marlins/

Again, the Florida Marlins would not trade Chris Volstad for Chris Tillman.

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SHAWN555 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

SHAWN555

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Tillman + Reimold or Snyder?

Why is Florida going to trade Volstad?

They are NOT going to be trading Volstad for Tillman and Reimold sorry, it is not going to happen. It would be foolish for the Marlins to make such a trade.

I think this shows how bad we need to sign Tex, we have major infield issues at short and thirdbase and if you are going to trade a Tillman that is the positions I would look to be filling.

That being said, there is absolutely no need to trade any of the big three yet. Perhaps down the road it could be something worth looking at but now it would just be foolish. Of course if you are blown away with an offer anyone could be available.

Peavy will not waive his no trade to come here, they wanted too much from Atlanta to get a deal done, why would the accept less from us?

After reading some of the posts in this thread I did realize I need to start updating my ignore feature, some of these posts are of the wow category.

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elsid Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

elsid

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Why on earth would you trade Tillman for a pitcher when you can just sign Sheets for free?

If you trade Tillman, it should be for an upper echelon young position player.

I think you can sign Sheets for almost next to nothing, compared with what he was going to possibly make. However, I think he might be Bedard version 2009 ("upgraded" from the 2008 version). There was much talk about him down here in the DFW area for a while. Now everything has gone silent. I don't think they liked the way things looked with the medical records, so they haven't offered a contract.

Still waiting to hear back from some people to see what they know/heard.

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Hank Scorpio Hangout Grand Counsel

Hank Scorpio

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Not sure if this has been posted, but...

Woah, I didn't say "more than willing." I said "more willing," as in they'd be more willing to trade Tillman than Arrieta. I'm just saying Arrieta is regarded slightly higher than Tillman at the moment. They're not looking to trade Tillman at all. - Roch
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S'GOS High-A

S'GOS

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I wonder if Tillman's name was thrown around in internal discussions about Peavy? Since it failed with the 3way between the Cubs, maybe the O's thought they could land him themselves? What would work?

Tillman, Olson, and Reimold for Peavy? Maybe more? (Add Rowell/Snyder?)

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