Who do you want? Who do we take?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Simple. 100%. Black and white. Crystal clear.   Law said, for him, it’s not that simple. There may be other professional evaluators who feel it’s not that simple.  It’s great that it’s simple for you.  That way your head won’t hurt.

Actually, it is that simple for him.  He said he would take Jones but if the demands are way apart, he would consider the next guy.  

This really isn’t that complicated.  Part of the evaluation of this is how highly do you rank this draft and how deep is it.  

With the money the Os have, they can basically do whatever they want with the first 3 or 4 picks.  The Os fourth pick in this draft is #67, meaning they are guaranteed to get 4 of the top 75 players on their board in this draft, if they choose.

The Os have a draft pool Of about 17M this year.  Those first 4 picks have a a lot bonus of roughly 14M.

Their next 8 picks, the remaining ones that count against the draft pools take up the remaining money.

Of that 3 million you have for those 8 picks, I’m guessing you could spend 2.5M of it and save roughly 500K for the top 4 picks.  You also will not have to go slot for the first pick and can likely save another 300k there.  Add in some savings here and there and I think you can easily find an extra million that you can put towards something.

So, the question is, how deep is this draft beyond the top 75?  If you feel you are getting first division starters (in other words, guys with that kind of upside) with your 7th rounder, so be it.

For me, I go big with those first 4 picks..maybe even first 5 picks and then grab college reliever type guys the rest of the top 10. (Or role player, UTI type guys)

We should come out of this draft with a guy who ranks first or at least top 3 in our organization and at least 1, if not 2, other guys who are in or just outside the top 10.  Plenty of money to do that while taking your BPA, regardless of demands, with the first pick.

 

 

[RZNJ]

Sometimes I feel like I’m conversing with a wall.

[86this]

Left field wall.  It has more depth now.  Not everyone will be on board with the choice the Orioles make with the #1.  There's the one intangible that needs to be considered, how this individual's character fits on this team.

[RZNJ]

Here is my short list for players I like.   If you look at BA's top 200, all of these guys are projected to be there at the pick I have them at.   Crawford and Misiorowski both have big arms and if they don't succeed as starters have closer profiles.   Chandler Simpson has 80 speed and some hitting ability although position is limited to 2B/CF/LF because of a subpar arm.    I'm also very interested in a catcher, Adonys Guzman in the 3rd or 4th round.  A HS kid with an 80 arm who could be a plus, plus defensive catcher and who did some nice things at the combine.   I realize that the argument will be that we can get some of these players a round or two or three later but when I read the BA profiles I found these players very interesting.   Crawford should be a full go by ST next year.   Misiorowski is only 20 and has a huge arm.  Both pitchers are question marks when it comes to command and control.    Simpson is a game changer with 80 speed but he can hit too.   Guzman gets rave reviews for his catch and throw and the hitting is a question but he's an Northeast kid without much exposure.   I will try to find the combine numbers.   I forget if he scored high in exit velocities or barrel percentage but he showed well there.    These players aren't our typical draft profile but who knows.   I could have gone HS pitching in the A or B round but those guys are such wildcards so I went with the big college arms.

1. Druw Jones

33. Reggie Crawford

Tools: Fastball: 70. Slider: 60. Changeup: 40. Control: 45.

Between his talent, limited track record on the mound and medical history, Crawford is one of the biggest wild cards in the draft. Crawford was one of the first of many pitchers in this class to have Tommy John surgery, having the operation last fall that kept him out of action the entire 2022 season.

42. Jacob Misiorowski

Notes:

HT: 6-7 | Wt: 190 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Louisiana State
Age At Draft: 20.3
BA Grade: 50/Extreme

Tools: Fastball: 70. Slider: 60. Control: 40.

Misiorowski is a massively projectable juco arm with plenty of stuff to get excited about. Listed at 6-foot-7, 190 pounds, Misiorowski is long and lean with plenty of room for future strength gains, but long limbs that cause him trouble in repeating his delivery.

67. Chandler Simpson

Notes:

HT: 6-2 | Wt: 170 | B-T: L-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.6
BA Grade: 45/High

Tools: Hit: 60. Power: 20. Run: 80. Field: 50. Arm: 40.

In a game now dominated by power, Simpson is the rare player who changes the game with his speed. A top-of-the-scale runner, Simpson scored from second on a sacrifice fly this year. A transfer from Alabama-Birmingham, Simpson led the nation with a .433 batting average and his .509 on-base percentage was ninth best in the country.

[ShoelesJoe]

16 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Actually, it is that simple for him.  He said he would take Jones but if the demands are way apart, he would consider the next guy.  

This really isn’t that complicated.  Part of the evaluation of this is how highly do you rank this draft and how deep is it.  

With the money the Os have, they can basically do whatever they want with the first 3 or 4 picks.  The Os fourth pick in this draft is #67, meaning they are guaranteed to get 4 of the top 75 players on their board in this draft, if they choose.

The Os have a draft pool Of about 17M this year.  Those first 4 picks have a a lot bonus of roughly 14M.

Their next 8 picks, the remaining ones that count against the draft pools take up the remaining money.

Of that 3 million you have for those 8 picks, I’m guessing you could spend 2.5M of it and save roughly 500K for the top 4 picks.  You also will not have to go slot for the first pick and can likely save another 300k there.  Add in some savings here and there and I think you can easily find an extra million that you can put towards something.

So, the question is, how deep is this draft beyond the top 75?  If you feel you are getting first division starters (in other words, guys with that kind of upside) with your 7th rounder, so be it.

For me, I go big with those first 4 picks..maybe even first 5 picks and then grab college reliever type guys the rest of the top 10. (Or role player, UTI type guys)

We should come out of this draft with a guy who ranks first or at least top 3 in our organization and at least 1, if not 2, other guys who are in or just outside the top 10.  Plenty of money to do that while taking your BPA, regardless of demands, with the first pick.

 

 

100% this. I may disagree on the black and white value of Jones vs The Field, but this draft is not the time to over complicate things. Elias should ignore the money aspect and snatch his BPA at every opportunity. Keep it simple. Keep it straightforward. 

[OriolesMagic83]

10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Here is my short list for players I like.   If you look at BA's top 200, all of these guys are projected to be there at the pick I have them at.   Crawford and Misiorowski both have big arms and if they don't succeed as starters have closer profiles.   Chandler Simpson has 80 speed and some hitting ability although position is limited to 2B/CF/LF because of a subpar arm.    I'm also very interested in a catcher, Adonys Guzman in the 3rd or 4th round.  A HS kid with an 80 arm who could be a plus, plus defensive catcher and who did some nice things at the combine.   I realize that the argument will be that we can get some of these players a round or two or three later but when I read the BA profiles I found these players very interesting.   Crawford should be a full go by ST next year.   Misiorowski is only 20 and has a huge arm.  Both pitchers are question marks when it comes to command and control.    Simpson is a game changer with 80 speed but he can hit too.   Guzman gets rave reviews for his catch and throw and the hitting is a question but he's an Northeast kid without much exposure.   I will try to find the combine numbers.   I forget if he scored high in exit velocities or barrel percentage but he showed well there.    These players aren't our typical draft profile but who knows.   I could have gone HS pitching in the A or B round but those guys are such wildcards so I went with the big college arms.

1. Druw Jones

33. Reggie Crawford

Tools: Fastball: 70. Slider: 60. Changeup: 40. Control: 45.

Between his talent, limited track record on the mound and medical history, Crawford is one of the biggest wild cards in the draft. Crawford was one of the first of many pitchers in this class to have Tommy John surgery, having the operation last fall that kept him out of action the entire 2022 season.

42. Jacob Misiorowski

Notes:

HT: 6-7 | Wt: 190 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Louisiana State
Age At Draft: 20.3
BA Grade: 50/Extreme

Tools: Fastball: 70. Slider: 60. Control: 40.

Misiorowski is a massively projectable juco arm with plenty of stuff to get excited about. Listed at 6-foot-7, 190 pounds, Misiorowski is long and lean with plenty of room for future strength gains, but long limbs that cause him trouble in repeating his delivery.

67. Chandler Simpson

Notes:

HT: 6-2 | Wt: 170 | B-T: L-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.6
BA Grade: 45/High

Tools: Hit: 60. Power: 20. Run: 80. Field: 50. Arm: 40.

In a game now dominated by power, Simpson is the rare player who changes the game with his speed. A top-of-the-scale runner, Simpson scored from second on a sacrifice fly this year. A transfer from Alabama-Birmingham, Simpson led the nation with a .433 batting average and his .509 on-base percentage was ninth best in the country.

I like these picks.  Elias needs to start picking some high upside college arms (and not in the 10th round).  I'm guessing that Simpson could be a Mateo type player, who might actually get on base.  I would also like the O's to grab some college arms that project to be MLB relievers.  Would be nice to get some top bullpen prospects that could make it to the majors in a year.

[RZNJ]

4 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I like these picks.  Elias needs to start picking some high upside college arms (and not in the 10th round).  I'm guessing that Simpson could be a Mateo type player, who might actually get on base.  I would also like the O's to grab some college arms that project to be MLB relievers.  Would be nice to get some top bullpen prospects that could make it to the majors in a year.

Another pitcher who intrigues me and might be there at 33 is Conor Prielip from Alabama.   If both he and Crawford were there at #33, Prielip might be the way to go.

Crawford and Misiorowski could both be fast tracked as relievers similar to what the White Sox did with Chris Sale years ago.  

[Sports Guy]

5 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

100% this. I may disagree on the black and white value of Jones vs The Field, but this draft is not the time to over complicate things. Elias should ignore the money aspect and snatch his BPA at every opportunity. Keep it simple. Keep it straightforward. 

Elias has said this is a good draft to be drafting first. He feels he’s getting a legit top talent with that pick.

That tells me that Lee and especially Berry are off the board.  

The one good thing about the draft going this late is there should be no doubts about what the signing bonus demands are.  These contracts should be hammered out almost immediately. There will be no college World Series or anything like that to slow up any signings or negotiations.

This should be the last draft the Orioles are picking top 5 for a while.  Take advantage of the idea that you tanked.  Tanking ONLY helps you because of the draft.  Every other aspect of tanking can be done whether you win or lose 100 games.  So, don’t waste this chance.

Thats why this isn’t really that hard. Sure, you need to wrestle with the idea of BPA vs signing bonus but at the end of the day, that doesn’t mean this is a hard decision or overly complicated.

As an organization, you know right now who the BPA is. You know who is #1.  Sure, some of these workouts, leagues, etc..that are happening now can make a difference but you have been scouting these guys for over a year and unless something really changes (an injury, off the field issue), you know your top guy.  Now, whether or not you take that top guy is a different story but you know who it is.

We don’t know who will be called up and when…if I’m guessing right now, the Orioles top prospect heading into 2022 will be GRod.  
 

I think there is a very good chance Gunnar, Stowers and Westburg will be ineligible.  I think there is a good chance Hall will still be eligible but it’s going to be close.  
 

In other words, the system is about to take a huge hit and it’s important to bring in the best talent you can as part of the next wave that needs to be here in 2-4 years. 

[RZNJ]

Why do you assume Brooks Lee is not in the conversation for #1?  Every ranking has him top 5.  Law said he has 5 guys he thinks are legitimate #1 overall selections and he has Lee at #5.  

 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

I think there is a very good chance Gunnar, Stowers and Westburg will be ineligible.  I think there is a good chance Hall will still be eligible but it’s going to be close.  
 

In other words, the system is about to take a huge hit and it’s important to bring in the best talent you can as part of the next wave that needs to be here in 2-4 years. 

To me, “the system” includes the Orioles and it isn’t a “hit” at all when a good prospect rises through the ranks and starts contributing to the major league team.   That’s the whole point of having a farm system.   So, I don’t think it is any more important than usual for the organization to bring in the best talent it can.  It’s always extremely important.   

[Sports Guy]

44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To me, “the system” includes the Orioles and it isn’t a “hit” at all when a good prospect rises through the ranks and starts contributing to the major league team.   That’s the whole point of having a farm system.   So, I don’t think it is any more important than usual for the organization to bring in the best talent it can.  It’s always extremely important.   

When did I say different?  Of course it’s always important.

The difference is this may be the last time you can grab the best talent, at least heading into the draft, for a long time..so take advantage of that.  

You don’t usually have a chance to get the player you want more than anyone else, along with 3 others in your top 70.   This draft should go a long ways towards replenishing the talent you are about to lose.

 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

As an organization, you know right now who the BPA is. You know who is #1.  Sure, some of these workouts, leagues, etc..that are happening now can make a difference but you have been scouting these guys for over a year and unless something really changes (an injury, off the field issue), you know your top guy.  Now, whether or not you take that top guy is a different story but you know who it is.

For all the excitement the next 3 weeks will bring, I'd guess the Orioles are approximately in this position now, but there won't be any transparency from the Warehouse in this arena, or maybe even with the camp of the player they want until days (hours?) of the draft.   If Elias thinks Druw Jones is 10x the player everyone else is, should even Sig or Ciolek have that vibe from him?

For funsies, here is how a 2021 pool of 16,924,000 might have been spent if 33-42-67 were large overslots at or after those picks, and Elias basically said the Top 15 guys are flat so who wants to be the #1 pick for a deep discount?

1-1 - $3.9mm high school pitcher Andrew Painter

1A-33 - $2.8mm high school pitcher Anthony Solometo

2-42 - $3mm high school pitcher Ben Kudma

2B-67 - $3mm high school pitcher Bubba Chandler

3-81 - $1.5mm high school shortstop Tyler Whitaker

4-107 - $1.5mm high school pitcher Eric Silva

5-137 - $1mm NCAA catcher Nathan Hickey

Doing this exercise also revealed to me that in 2021 John Rhodes at pick 76 was the "last" 7-figure NCAA bat, if you crave that demographic, so I suppose by Rounds 4-5 you are in that Baumler-Mayo zone if you have million dollar bonus capability still.

[Sports Guy]

Let’s look back at what Pitt did last year.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-the-pirates-used-their-financial-advantage-to-dominate-day-two-of-the-2021-mlb-draft/?amphtml

They took Davis first and saved 1.9M.

They then went big overslot with the next 3 picks.  They paid roughly 3.5M over slot with those 3 picks.

In rounds 5-10, they went underslot and sometimes, severely underslot.  They saved 900K over those picks. 
 

https://pirates.pittsburghbaseball.com/2021draft/
 

I would like to see the Orioles do something similar with those picks past the top 4 or 5.  Just really low slot bonus guys.  Take your big shots early and don’t worry about the later rounds, when you are picking guys that just aren’t likely to make it anyway.  Just take college arms and see if you can get lucky.

[Sports Guy]

Btw, according to that BA article, a team can go up to 4.9% over their draft pool and not face a draft pick penalty.  That would mean the Os could pay up to about $828,000 and just have to pay the tax.  That tax is 75%.  I wasn’t able to find what it was 75% of but im assuming the draft pool.

That is 12.6M.  That’s a pretty steep price to pay. Basically means you spend 30M on the draft.

Is that worth it?  It certainly may be.  The answer to that likely comes back to how highly do you rate your top guy and how much separation is there between him And the next player.  
 

If the gap is wide enough and you love some guys that fall (say ala Pitt and you can get some first round talent with your next 3 picks), it certainly could be worth it.

That said, no way is Angelos paying that 12M, so I think we can throw that idea out.

Saying that, the Pirates (are we more frugal than them now?) and 19 other teams went over their bonus pool last year, so it’s not uncommon to do so.

https://www.mlb.com/news/pirates-takeaways-from-the-2021-mlb-draft

 

For what I’m seeing, the Pirates have paid the tax in every draft since 2013..always exceeding their draft pool.  Interesting.

[Sports Guy]

Actually, as I read more, the 75% is actually on the overage.  So, the way I read that is if the Os exceeding their draft pool by 800,000, they have to pay 75% of that in a tax, which is another 600k.

So that’s easy.  That should obviously be done.

Basically, the Orioles would be paying out roughly 18.4M if they exceed the draft pool by 4.9%, pay the tax and spend all the Bonus pool money they have.

Of that, about 17.8M go towards players.

If we assume, for discussions sake, that they don’t go over 125K for any player past round 10 and rounds 5-10 they save at least 500k-1M, that would give the team 1.3-1.8M in extra money for the higher picks.

If you take their top 6 picks, going through the 4th round, that puts them at at having the ability to spend around 16.5-17M for those 6 picks.  and maybe you don’t even count the 4th rounder in that.  
 

Maybe you just say the first 4 or maybe 5 picks.  
 

Either way, there are a lot of ways to save and find extra money and still get the players you want.  Having that extra 825k in your back pocket is important.