SP Trade Offer Contemplation

[Just Regular]

I hope this is Elias last year where he's sitting at the big poker table going fold, fold, fold, fold, but he should of course be watching all the other players for tells.

My guess is Frankie Montas and Luis Castillo will be the most valuable non-rental SP moved in the next month.

That Baseball Trade Values aggregator guesses today that Median Surplus Values are Montas 37, Castillo 41.   It also guesses Orioles at Gunnar 40, Hall 30, Cowser 21, Mayo 17, Westburg 14.

Undoubtedly when the time comes, Elias will try and leverage depth and pay with a pu-pu platter, but players with Surplus Value <$10mm, that's about where even as a fan enthusiast, any opinions on 2nd/3rd tier prospects I feel any of us have are just guesses.

So...a year from now...Bats look good, Grayson looking good enough...we are say about where the Guardians are today.    CIN will accept Cowser and Mayo for Luis Castillo....deal?

[owknows]

11 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I hope this is Elias last year where he's sitting at the big poker table going fold, fold, fold, fold, but he should of course be watching all the other players for tells.

My guess is Frankie Montas and Luis Castillo will be the most valuable non-rental SP moved in the next month.

That Baseball Trade Values aggregator guesses today that Median Surplus Values are Montas 37, Castillo 41.   It also guesses Orioles at Gunnar 40, Hall 30, Cowser 21, Mayo 17, Westburg 14.

Undoubtedly when the time comes, Elias will try and leverage depth and pay with a pu-pu platter, but players with Surplus Value <$10mm, that's about where even as a fan enthusiast, any opinions on 2nd/3rd tier prospects I feel any of us have are just guesses.

So...a year from now...Bats look good, Grayson looking good enough...we are say about where the Guardians are today.    CIN will accept Cowser and Mayo for Luis Castillo....deal?

Meth. Not even once.

[waroriole]

If Cowser and Mayo continue on their progression with little change, I would not trade both for Castillo, even as the final piece to contention. Free agent signing is much preferred since it only costs money, which the team has plenty of. We’d only have 2 years of a guy who provides Means level production. 

[Aristotelian]

Won't Castillo's surplus value be going way down a year from now? He will have a year less of control and higher salary. 

The Tampa move would be to trade Hays/Mullins/Mountcastle and keep the pipeline coming. Then sign Rodon or somebody. 

[Sports Guy]

No, I am not interested in trading for close to FA starting pitching.

Mullins is the player to deal for young pitching.

[owknows]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, I am not interested in trading for close to FA starting pitching.

Mullins is the player to deal for young pitching.

Basically agree, but Mullins would of course have been better dealt last year.

You primary point seem to be that if you're gonna trade... it should be for young pitching.  Which I agree with.

If you want two years of mid-tier pitcher you can buy that for dollars instead of top tier prospects.

[sportsfan8703]

No three way trades yet?

O’s get - MLB SP controlled thru 2023  

Team 2 gets - Mancini

Team 3 gets - prospects from team 2. 

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, owknows said:

Basically agree, but Mullins would of course have been better dealt last year.

You primary point seem to be that if you're gonna trade... it should be for young pitching.  Which I agree with.

If you want two years of mid-tier pitcher you can buy that for dollars instead of top tier prospects.

We have no idea how the market valued Mullins or what offers were on the table last year. He has underperformed compared to last year but is still on pace for around 3 WAR. I highly doubt any GM valued Mullins as a 5+ WAR player based on a couple of hot months. I forget where I read it, but I recall seeing specifically that the Marlins did not make any of their top pitching prospects available. 

[Aristotelian]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, I am not interested in trading for close to FA starting pitching.

Mullins is the player to deal for young pitching.

Why not Hays? 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Why not Hays? 

Maybe him too.  A lot of people would be pissed if we traded Hays but you still can’t ignore the durability question marks and it’s not like he’s super young either.

I just feel Mullins gets you back more although I would like to see him get hot for the next month and raise his numbers up.  Get in that 750-775 OPS area.  

 

[OriolesMagic83]

Why not Adley?  Let's just keep rebuilding forever.  I can't wait to bask in the glow of having the top farm system for 10 seasons running.

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Why not Adley?  Let's just keep rebuilding forever.  I can't wait to bask in the glow of having the top farm system for 10 seasons running.

We don't have a lot of catchers in the pipeline. We do have outfielders. I'm not actively trying to trade Hays, but if Kim Ng is on the line, yes, put her through. 

[SteveA]

54 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Maybe him too.  A lot of people would be pissed if we traded Hays but you still can’t ignore the durability question marks and it’s not like he’s super young either.

I just feel Mullins gets you back more although I would like to see him get hot for the next month and raise his numbers up.  Get in that 750-775 OPS area.  

 

Yeah, let's package Hays with Schilling and Harnisch, see if we can get Glenn Davis.   Worked so well the first time.

^^^^^
My subtle way of saying who Hays reminds me of as a player.

[NCRaven]

32 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We don't have a lot of catchers in the pipeline. We do have outfielders. I'm not actively trying to trade Hays, but if Kim Ng is on the line, yes, put her through. 

If a team is willing to send us a starting pitcher in the Rodriquez / DL Hall mode, that is a high ceiling and already playing in AAA, go for it.  But, it would have to be that type of return to make us trade either of Mullins or Hays.  Now, Santander or Mancini, you're definitely getting a much lesser return.  But, with them, you have others ready to step up.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

Yeah, let's package Hays with Schilling and Harnisch, see if we can get Glenn Davis.   Worked so well the first time.

^^^^^
My subtle way of saying who Hays reminds me of as a player.

Finley was not much of a player before he left Baltimore and somehow starkly, improbably, greatly improved his game very quickly.