Would you take Jones Jr at full slot (or close to it) or Termarr Johnson at $1.5M under slot?

[Getz]

I wouldn't mind going underslot for Lee or Johnson if it meant we would get 2 player like Gunnar, Mayo or Baumler. If Johnson has that good of a bat and can play average 2B he's really valuable.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

You're not making sense.   Keith Law has Johnson ranked #3 overall.   Kiley McDaniel has him ranked #2 overall.     You say he's not a first round talent?   Based on what?

I love Keith Law personally. Frankly, I respect the hell out of him. But I realize his accuracy isn’t the best. I am sure he’s a first round talent, not 1:1 bc of position & tool set. 

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I love Keith Law personally. Frankly, I respect the hell out of him. But I realize his accuracy isn’t the best. I am sure he’s a first round talent, not 1:1 bc of position & tool set. 

Who do you put your faith in on these evaluations?      Please don't say SportsGuy.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Who do you put your faith in on these evaluations?      Please don't say SportsGuy.

We agreed last year it seems. Completely but I look at composite lists. I think that’s all you can can do unless you are confident in your scouting abilities. I would love to see most accurate scouting source, does that exist?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I wouldn't have a problem if it was Termarr Johnson.   However, my thought process would then by, why not just take Brooks Lee.   Lee's hit tool is just about he same but he's also faced tougher competition and hit over .400 in the Cape Cod league last summer.    He reportedly has a better arm and although neither is likely to stick at SS, it appears there are some who think it's possible with Lee.   Lee can also play 3B.   Lee is a SH and has pretty good power from the left side.

It just seems to me that if you want to go with Termarr that Lee is a more proven option for a similar skill set.

You’d have to believe that Johnson has a clearly better hit tool to take him over Lee.   Do the O’s believe that?   Beats me. 

[Just Regular]

Brown and Ben in the booth now kicking the underslot can in the wake of a Correa rally-stifling web gem ended with Ben commenting on Boras being Druw Jones' representative and "no underslot" reputation there and that he wouldn't be surprised if one of the other top contenders is this pick.

 

[Jammer7]

To answer the OP, in this draft, I take Jones if he is at, or hopefully just below slot. The problem is, he may want more than slot. There are rumors out there, supposedly.

A lot of talk about which one, and why. For me, the Orioles are going to pick the guy who will bring the most value, over time. I know, no kidding! But what goes into that? For me, the guy who is most coachable, and able to reach their tools in games in the years to come. Who projects to have the best impact? Or it could be who brings the most return in trade. They are all excellent talents, accomplished players at the levels they have reached, so far. 

The Orioles believe in their player development system. We know this to be true. They believe that if they take a player that can make good adjustments, they can get said player to reach the higher end of their ceiling. They require a little more cerebral coachable player. Being hard-headed or ego maniacal would not lend itself to what they are building, at least I would not think so. For instance, Gunnar does not lack for confidence, not at all. But he is coachable, and as Elias said, he is the “flagship” of their player development system.

So, for me, if they see Jones as their clear best value, they take him. They would have to feel he would excel in their teachings and the environment they provide. If they see him as being over-priced, or have questions about his intangibles, Jackson Holiday and Elijah Greene would be the new flagship candidates for me. They can save a little there, probably. And get premium talent. It takes a lot more than I know about these guys to make that decision. For me, it is probably down to these three. 

Lee has grown on me a little. If they really value the hit tool grades above all and want quicker impact, I take him over Johnson. They have a lot more data on him, another son of a coach. The hype about Johnson being the “best HS hitter in 10 years” is such a bunch of noise. That body type scares me. Six years from now, “he could be Wade Boggs”…ehhh, no thanks. Not at 1-1. He could also end up comping to Lenny Harris, a small barrel chested guy with below average defense, speed and arm. At best, he could be Joe Morgan at the plate, with no stolen bases and below average defense. I’m sorry, that’s just not good enough, nor likely enough, for me. I value the defensive side far too much to sell out on the bat. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

 The hype about Johnson being the “best HS hitter in 10 years” is such a bunch of noise. That body type scares me. Six years from now, “he could be Wade Boggs”…ehhh, no thanks. Not at 1-1. He could also end up comping to Lenny Harris, a small barrel chested guy with below average defense, speed and arm. At best, he could be Joe Morgan at the plate, with no stolen bases and below average defense. I’m sorry, that’s just not good enough, nor likely enough, for me. I value the defensive side far too much to sell out on the bat. 

Such a take. Nailed it. Agree completely. If this is the O’s pick, fail. 

[RZNJ]

8 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

To answer the OP, in this draft, I take Jones if he is at, or hopefully just below slot. The problem is, he may want more than slot. There are rumors out there, supposedly.

A lot of talk about which one, and why. For me, the Orioles are going to pick the guy who will bring the most value, over time. I know, no kidding! But what goes into that? For me, the guy who is most coachable, and able to reach their tools in games in the years to come. Who projects to have the best impact? Or it could be who brings the most return in trade. They are all excellent talents, accomplished players at the levels they have reached, so far. 

The Orioles believe in their player development system. We know this to be true. They believe that if they take a player that can make good adjustments, they can get said player to reach the higher end of their ceiling. They require a little more cerebral coachable player. Being hard-headed or ego maniacal would not lend itself to what they are building, at least I would not think so. For instance, Gunnar does not lack for confidence, not at all. But he is coachable, and as Elias said, he is the “flagship” of their player development system.

So, for me, if they see Jones as their clear best value, they take him. They would have to feel he would excel in their teachings and the environment they provide. If they see him as being over-priced, or have questions about his intangibles, Jackson Holiday and Elijah Greene would be the new flagship candidates for me. They can save a little there, probably. And get premium talent. It takes a lot more than I know about these guys to make that decision. For me, it is probably down to these three. 

Lee has grown on me a little. If they really value the hit tool grades above all and want quicker impact, I take him over Johnson. They have a lot more data on him, another son of a coach. The hype about Johnson being the “best HS hitter in 10 years” is such a bunch of noise. That body type scares me. Six years from now, “he could be Wade Boggs”…ehhh, no thanks. Not at 1-1. He could also end up comping to Lenny Harris, a small barrel chested guy with below average defense, speed and arm. At best, he could be Joe Morgan at the plate, with no stolen bases and below average defense. I’m sorry, that’s just not good enough, nor likely enough, for me. I value the defensive side far too much to sell out on the bat. 

Johnson at best could be a below average 2B?  Not a big deal but I've seen projections of average or above average.  How do you come up with below average defense being the best case scenario?

[Chaka Garcia]

The lack of size of Johnson - 5'8, not the 5'10 listed and projected average defense at 2B scares me.

Looking at last year's draft of 5'9 SS Kahill Watson who is projected to stay at SS, his current numbers - milb.com/player/kahlil-watson-696135. Looks like everything needs to go right and improvement needs to happen for him to make it. 

I would actually go with Collier with the underslot over Johnson - Collier being younger and going against older players. Overall, go with the best player Jones.

 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Chaka Garcia said:

The lack of size of Johnson - 5'8, not the 5'10 listed and projected average defense at 2B scares me.

Looking at last year's draft of 5'9 SS Kahill Watson who is projected to stay at SS, his current numbers - milb.com/player/kahlil-watson-696135. Looks like everything needs to go right and improvement needs to happen for him to make it. 

I would actually go with Collier with the underslot over Johnson - Collier being younger and going against older players. Overall, go with the best player Jones.

 

No problem.   Everyone is enthralled with Collier being only 17.   He's about 4-5 months younger than Termarr Johnson.    There are things that worry me about Johnson.   There are things that worry me about Collier as well.    I think the players I have the least amount of worry about are Jones, Holliday, and Lee.    Lee is probably the safest pick in the whole draft with pretty good upside.

[Jammer7]

19 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Johnson at best could be a below average 2B?  Not a big deal but I've seen projections of average or above average.  How do you come up with below average defense being the best case scenario?

Pretty much every write up I’ve seen echoes that. The biggest thing for me is looking at the body type. I could be wrong, but I’m not alone. It’s about where his body will be at full maturity. He’s likely going to slow down some, gain some bulk. He’s a 45-50 runner now, and he is not a quick twitchy guy. 

Projecting body types is not an exact science. Maybe he proves everybody wrong.

The media, Harold Reynolds for one but there was another who made the same type of comment, has compared him to Robbie Alomar and Robinson Cano lately. Good grief! Both of these guys are/were way more athletic, and five or six inches taller. And Cano was jacked up on PED’s for years. This is how ridiculous this kind of thing gets. A scout throws a big grade on him and suddenly he’s the greatest thing since sliced cheese. Madrigal and Hiura were supposed to be 70 grade hitters too. Yawn…wasted first round picks. If Elias takes Johnson, I will lose a lot of respect for him. I don’t care how much money he saves. The chances of him being the best player in this draft, for me, are really really small. 

[Jammer7]

11 hours ago, RZNJ said:

No problem.   Everyone is enthralled with Collier being only 17.   He's about 4-5 months younger than Termarr Johnson.    There are things that worry me about Johnson.   There are things that worry me about Collier as well.    I think the players I have the least amount of worry about are Jones, Holliday, and Lee.    Lee is probably the safest pick in the whole draft with pretty good upside.

The group you listed (Jones, Holliday and Lee) is kinda where I was, but there is something about Greene. If Elias and his PD and scouting staffs believe they can help Greene reach the impact level he is capable of reaching, they might just take him. shock the world! I saw an interesting interview with Elijah and his pops a while back. There is something about the way he carries himself, a quiet confidence and love for the game. Biggest upside and a tremendous specimen. But just how bad is the swing and miss, and is it in the zone or chase whiffs? Can you imagine the long HR’s he’ll hit over the Great Wall of Baltimore?

He grew up about 30 minutes from me and I’m mad at myself for not getting to see him at West Orange before he went to IMG. I am not going to travel ball tournaments this year. Starting a new job. I’m going to teach in a high school. Old dog, new tricks and all. 

[RZNJ]

23 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Pretty much every write up I’ve seen echoes that. The biggest thing for me is looking at the body type. I could be wrong, but I’m not alone. It’s about where his body will be at full maturity. He’s likely going to slow down some, gain some bulk. He’s a 45-50 runner now, and he is not a quick twitchy guy. 

Projecting body types is not an exact science. Maybe he proves everybody wrong.

The media, Harold Reynolds for one but there was another who made the same type of comment, has compared him to Robbie Alomar and Robinson Cano lately. Good grief! Both of these guys are/were way more athletic, and five or six inches taller. And Cano was jacked up on PED’s for years. This is how ridiculous this kind of thing gets. A scout throws a big grade on him and suddenly he’s the greatest thing since sliced cheese. Madrigal and Hiura were supposed to be 70 grade hitters too. Yawn…wasted first round picks. If Elias takes Johnson, I will lose a lot of respect for him. I don’t care how much money he saves. The chances of him being the best player in this draft, for me, are really really small. 

Hate to bust your chops but give me one legit report that thinks below average defensive 2B is a best case and I'll give you 5 that say he should be at least average if not better. 

[Jammer7]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Hate to bust your chops but give me one legit report that thinks below average defensive 2B is a best case and I'll give you 5 that say he should be at least average if not better. 

Ok, not hardly, but I really don’t care. There are several out there. I’m not going to spend the time tonight. When I come across them again, I’ll post it for you. Just for you. Better things to do at the moment. 

While you’re patiently waiting for my article citation, ponder this one for me. Name me one guy his size that should have ever been picked 1-1 in the modern era? And he’s 5-08, at best.