Mancini trade market heating up? Orioles willing to deal Santander? Yankees and Mets?

[sportsfan8703]

47 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah I don't think he has much value, but the 2nd year of control is at least something. And I think Elias knows he's not going to be worth his arbitration cost next year, so he's going to trade him as long as he gets anything of note for him (one pitcher + one 17 yr old lottery ticket perhaps). Whether that's this year or in the offseason. 

Santander has value. SH OF. Strong arm. Doesn’t kill you on defense. Has power.

[InsideCoroner]

35 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Santander has value. SH OF. Strong arm. Doesn’t kill you on defense. Has power.

Does he have value? Yes. Does he have much value? No.

I like Santander, and he can really run into a ball now and then, but he has nearly 1,500 plate appearances and a career fWAR of 1.9. That’s not exactly enticing trade bait.

[OriolesMagic83]

18 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Dodgers are the type of team that we could get SP from since they only target TOR SP. Their #3-#5 SP types would be just fine for us and our depth. 

I know we say take the best package available, but with our system, and going bat again with the #1 pick, we should target SP in trades. 
 

Most of the Dodgers' starting pitching is homegrown.  They obviously can afford to sign top free agent pitchers but have been doing something right in development.

[Sports Guy]

Wonder if the Dodgers would move Dustin May?

[UMDTerrapins]

I've been spending a little time looking at pitching prospects in organizations that might match up well with us. This means that I'm not looking at top 5 organizational prospects (made the mistake of watching Daniel Espino). I'm looking in the 5-30. range. I'm hoping to name some pitchers that stood out to my eye in a week or two. Not going heavily on stats, just their mechanics and pitch arsenal. So far, looking at NYM and LAD, a couple pitchers I've liked are Dominic Hamel (very nice slider) and Maddux Bruns (very raw). Still have a few more Dodgers to watch, but so far I haven't seen a pitcher in either organization that just blew me away and might be gettable. 

 

By the way, in sifting through the Dodgers prospects, it's worth noting that the Dodgers used their top 14 picks on pitchers last year. We're clearly not using our top pick on a pitcher, but I wouldn't mind us putting a similarly heavy emphasis on pitching this year. 

[sportsfan8703]

27 minutes ago, InsideCoroner said:

Does he have value? Yes. Does he have much value? No.

I like Santander, and he can really run into a ball now and then, but he has nearly 1,500 plate appearances and a career fWAR of 1.9. That’s not exactly enticing trade bait.

He’s an everyday RF that Switch hits, hits for power, and is used to hitting in the MOO. I’d like to keep him for next year depending on the return. We have Stowers to replace Mancini. The DH spot would then be rotational. However, we don’t have a sure fire bat to replace both Santander and Mancini. 2023 should be about competing. Maybe Vavra is in the DH mix as well. 
 

A realistic deal that I would make is if we could get back Landon Knack(#7) and Clayton Beeter(#15)from the LAD for him. Those are two guys that are sort of spare parts for LAD but would be SP/RP options for us in 2023+. 

[sportsfan8703]

I’d even do Beeter(#15) and Gavin Stone(#18). The Dodgers are loaded with #3 types. 

[Tryptamine]

28 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

He’s an everyday RF that Switch hits, hits for power, and is used to hitting in the MOO. I’d like to keep him for next year depending on the return. We have Stowers to replace Mancini. The DH spot would then be rotational. However, we don’t have a sure fire bat to replace both Santander and Mancini. 2023 should be about competing. Maybe Vavra is in the DH mix as well. 
 

A realistic deal that I would make is if we could get back Landon Knack(#7) and Clayton Beeter(#15)from the LAD for him. Those are two guys that are sort of spare parts for LAD but would be SP/RP options for us in 2023+. 

I don't think that's realistic at all honestly. I don't think you get Knack solo, let alone Beeter as well. You're talking about a guy who is tied at #201 among MLB hitters with 100 or more PAs for 2021 fWAR at .5. In 2021 he was tied for #301. Even if we focus solely, on his bat this year, which is the only valuable part of his game, his 110 wRC+ is tied for #124.

[InsideCoroner]

I just can’t see landing a top 15 prospect for Santander — from any team. If we’re lucky we might get a fringe top 30 guy, that’s about it. In which case I would also be inclined to simply keep him.

[MurphDogg]

48 minutes ago, InsideCoroner said:

I just can’t see landing a top 15 prospect for Santander — from any team. If we’re lucky we might get a fringe top 30 guy, that’s about it. In which case I would also be inclined to simply keep him.

A league average-ish outfielder entering his final arb year is worth a top 15 prospect. A top 15 prospect has very little expected surplus value and a player that is offered arbitration, by definition has at least some expected surplus value (in that it would be illogical for a team to offer a player arbitration if they could get equivalent value on the open market on a one-year deal for the same price).

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

A league average-ish outfielder entering his final arb year is worth a top 15 prospect. A top 15 prospect has very little expected surplus value and a player that is offered arbitration, by definition has at least some expected surplus value (in that it would be illogical for a team to offer a player arbitration if they could get equivalent value on the open market on a one-year deal for the same price).

Also a weak farm system's #15 might not be as promising as a strong farm's #30.

Just to use tonight's teams as an example,  I wouldn't be shocked if the O's #30 was more highly regarded than the Angel's #15. 

[MurphDogg]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Also a weak farm system's #15 might not be as promising as a strong farm's #30.

Just to use tonight's teams as an example,  I wouldn't be shocked if the O's #30 was more highly regarded than the Angel's #15. 

The Orioles #15 prospect is someone like Drew Rom. If the Orioles were going for it this year, I would have zero qualms about moving Drew Rom for a player that potentially improved the Orioles by a fraction of a win over the remainder of the season and potentially another win the next season. That is the type of move that competing teams make every year.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

The Orioles #15 prospect is someone like Drew Rom. If the Orioles were going for it this year, I would have zero qualms about moving Drew Rom for a player that potentially improved the Orioles by a fraction of a win over the remainder of the season and potentially another win the next season. That is the type of move that competing teams make every year.

The main concern I would have is if the piece would actually improve the team.  I'm fine with trading value but I don't see much reason to pick up a guy that may or may not be an improvement over what you already have.

[MurphDogg]

39 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The main concern I would have is if the piece would actually improve the team.  I'm fine with trading value but I don't see much reason to pick up a guy that may or may not be an improvement over what you already have.

Take the Mets for example. JD Davis has 177 plate appearances this year, 34 starts at DH plus another 7 between 3rd and 1st. Davis has put up a .665 OPS (91 OPS+). 

He has a career OPS+ of 113 but had never been a regular DH before this year.

In my opinion it would be a mistake for the Mets to not be willing to give up the equivalent of Rom for either Mancini or Santander, who history has proven are comfortable at DH and offer something defensively at non-premium postions.

Is it possible that Davis could outperform Mancini and/or Santander over the rest of the season at DH? Yes, but I would still make that move ten times out of ten if I were in the Mets position.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Take the Mets for example. JD Davis has 177 plate appearances this year, 34 starts at DH plus another 7 between 3rd and 1st. Davis has put up a .665 OPS (91 OPS+). 

He has a career OPS+ of 113 but had never been a regular DH before this year.

In my opinion it would be a mistake for the Mets to not be willing to give up the equivalent of Rom for either Mancini or Santander, who history has proven are comfortable at DH and offer something defensively at non-premium postions.

Is it possible that Davis could outperform Mancini and/or Santander over the rest of the season at DH? Yes, but I would still make that move ten times out of ten if I were in the Mets position.

I get that and I don't disagree with your thinking in that case.

However I still want the freedom to be opposed to trades for Parra and Pearce.