Gunnar Henderson Now #5 in MLB.com Updated Top 100

[Just Regular]

The MLB.com article had a picture of the new 100 with how much everyone had moved, and the one other player somewhat similar in first half of 2022 (from Top 50-ish to Top 20-ish) has been ATL Michael Harris.

Except for team context, its certainly fun to wonder if Gunnar has even more of the goods to splash the debut as dynamically as Harris has.

 

[LookinUp]

14 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

It’s not. You don’t pass on two shortstops for a corner OFer. 

I want to engage in this, but now's not the time, so I'll try to summarize.

The GM's job isn't to maximize any given pick. It is to maximize value over all of the picks they get. 

So Cowser might not end up as valuable as Lawlar, but 5 Cowsers (Kjerstad, Stowers, whoever) very well might end up more valuable in the aggregate than 5 high potential high school short stops.

You can have egg on your face over a single pick. That can happen to anyone, but the statisticians up there are not playing your game. They're trying to maximize total value, and that takes things like risk into account. 

Darn. I got into it. 

fin

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Right, but you're okay with him taking Lesko or Parada 1:1, correct?

And oh by the way, if Lawlar was in the Orioles system or the Orioles had a top SS prospect with 19 errors in 43 games you can be sure that it would be a source of concern. 

No. The pick should be Jones. Just preparing for Elias disappointment per usual. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

10 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I want to engage in this, but now's not the time, so I'll try to summarize.

The GM's job isn't to maximize any given pick. It is to maximize value over all of the picks they get. 

So Cowser might not end up as valuable as Lawlar, but 5 Cowsers (Kjerstad, Stowers, whoever) very well might end up more valuable in the aggregate than 5 high potential high school short stops.

You can have egg on your face over a single pick. That can happen to anyone, but the statisticians up there are not playing your game. They're trying to maximize total value, and that takes things like risk into account. 

Darn. I got into it. 

fin

I am not an idiot. Do you read any of the stuff I post? You probably don’t comprehend that teams can spend over the slots! Crazy! So maybe, just maybe, stop being a brainless fool and ask why after gutting the payroll of the franchise these past years, they can’t go over their draft pool and pay the fine? It’s peanuts in the big picture. But you are too busy parroting the talking points of a message board. 

[LookinUp]

6 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I am not an idiot. Do you read any of the stuff I post? You probably don’t comprehend that teams can spend over the slots! Crazy! So maybe, just maybe, stop being a brainless fool and ask why after gutting the payroll of the franchise these past years, they can’t go over their draft pool and pay the fine? It’s peanuts in the big picture. But you are too busy parroting the talking points of a message board. 

That's a different discussion altogether. They're putting a strategy in place given a budget. If the owner's not giving him more budget, that is what it is. I just don't blame Elias for that.

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

No. The pick should be Jones. Just preparing for Elias disappointment per usual. 

Could have sworn you mentioned about 4 names you were ok with and Parada was one of them.  Then you floated the idea of Lesko saying you should grab premium pitching when you can.  Have I got you confused with someone else?

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

That's a different discussion altogether. They're putting a strategy in place given a budget. If the owner's not giving him more budget, that is what it is. I just don't blame Elias for that.

Sorry to go off but I don’t need an explanation on the underslot strategy. It’s insulting. 

So, you think Elias has no control on budget since he moved back the wall, opened up camps in the DR and had Davis retire early? You guys really twist yourselves into a pretzel defending Elias. The funny thing is I think overall he is a decent GM, I just strongly disagree with his selection last year. But people on here just argue endlessly, it’s exhausting. 
 

my favorite response: wait 10-20 years and then we will evaluate. You can’t be critical now (this was the mantra with Hobgood if I recall). 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

That's a different discussion altogether. They're putting a strategy in place given a budget. If the owner's not giving him more budget, that is what it is. I just don't blame Elias for that.

You don't think it falls on the GM, at all, that he can't convince ownership to pony up another 600K?

Andy got Peter to hand over 800K for Givens.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Could have sworn you mentioned about 4 names you were ok with and Parada was one of them.  Then you floated the idea of Lesko saying you should grab premium pitching when you can.  Have I got you confused with someone else?

Yes. I guess I need to speak clearly so you guys can attack it wrongly later. Jones is the pick barring something significant. I am preparing myself (and ok with): Holiday, Lee, Parada and yes, we need pitching bad and Id consider going Lesko underslot and go overslot like a rock star after. I think Lesko goes in the first and might get taken by Padres at 15 (heavily scouting him) or Mets (2 picks as another poster pointed out). 
 

Def not excited for Berry, Johnson and unsure on Collier. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

You don't think it falls on the GM, at all, that he can't convince ownership to pony up another 600K?

Andy got Peter to hand over 800K for Givens.

Maddening! These posters just want to argue and their arguments lack common sense, burns me up!

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Maddening! These posters just want to argue and their arguments lack common sense, burns me up!

I guarantee you if he goes over by 5% folks won't be saying "it is what it is".

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I guarantee you if he goes over by 5% folks won't be saying "it is what it is".

I am sure you read national outlets, they all find out draft strategy unorthodox. Most call it weird, bizarre or thrifty. Yet, despite overwhelming info available to them, they will defend every single thing he does to the end. I don’t get it. Elias clearly does a good job overall, why not call out his mistakes fairly? I just don’t get it. When you are rebuilding, you want to be strong up the middle (Adley, check) but taking two corner OFers when a potential franchise SS (or two) are available is puzzling. I would not have taken Kerjstad but I get that approach for that draft. I do. Last year he got too cute imo.
 

and to your point, endless threads on anyone that dares criticize Elias picks, but no discussion why we aren’t going over our draft pool despite huge cost cutting/savings in recent years? Big picture!

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

39 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Could have sworn you mentioned about 4 names you were ok with and Parada was one of them.  Then you floated the idea of Lesko saying you should grab premium pitching when you can.  Have I got you confused with someone else?

I just explained, but yes I’d be ok with Parada if Elias refuses to take Jones which is likely.

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I am sure you read national outlets, they all find out draft strategy unorthodox. Most call it weird, bizarre or thrifty. Yet, despite overwhelming info available to them, they will defend every single thing he does to the end. I don’t get it. Elias clearly does a good job overall, why not call out his mistakes fairly? I just don’t get it. When you are rebuilding, you want to be strong up the middle (Adley, check) but taking two corner OFers when a potential franchise SS (or two) are available is puzzling. I would not have taken Kerjstad but I get that approach for that draft. I do. Last year he got too cute imo.
 

and to your point, endless threads on anyone that dares criticize Elias picks, but no discussion why we aren’t going over our draft pool despite huge cost cutting/savings in recent years? Big picture!

Can you please provide one national outlet that describes the Orioles draft philosophy as bizarre or weird?  I try and read as much of that stuff as I can.  

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Can you please provide one national outlet that describes the Orioles draft philosophy as bizarre or weird?  I try and read as much of that stuff as I can.  

I literally posted one yesterday in the draft forum. One video referred to Elias’ draft strategy like the Viet Kong lol.