Keep Mancini Thread

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I thought the new CBA did away with draft comp.

I think it's still in if they don't reach an agreement about the international draft by July 25th.  There were several things hinging upon that, including draft compensation.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I thought the new CBA did away with draft comp.

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner

[Pickles]

35 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner

Again, pretty sure this is not true.

[Roll Tide]

31 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Again, pretty sure this is not true.

There are comp round picks based on luxury tax stuff

 

Quote

MLB and MLBPA agree to eliminate direct amateur draft-pick compensation, which had existed since 1976 and been in place for qualified free agents since 2012, pending an agreement on an international amateur draft.

A team losing a free agent would receive draft-pick compensation based on revenue-sharing status and whether a club had been over the luxury tax threshold. For a free agent who had spent the entire season with one team, there would would be four compensation tiers based on:

— $25 million in guaranteed salary or $18 million average annual value (AAV) (third round pick for revenue sharing payee)— $55 million or $23 million AAV (Comp B pick for revenue sharing payee, third round for non-payee or team that did not pay luxury tax)

— $100 million or $30 million AAV (Comp A pick for revenue sharing payee, Comp B pick for non-payee or team that did not pay luxury tax, third round pick for team paying revenue sharing)

— $150 million or $40 million AAV (Comp A pick and third round pick for revenue sharing payee, Comp A pick for non-payee or team that did not pay luxury tax, Comp B pick for team paying revenue sharing)

SALARY ARBITRATION

 

Trey isnt getting 18 per season…. If he got a 2 year 24 million deal they’d get nothing. So it will depend on his market and interest level. It’s possible he gets a deal like Canha but not guaranteed. I’d much rather have a average level system 5-10 guy plus another player (25-30 or even outside their top 30) which I believe is fair value than hope to get an end of the third round pick.

But, the signing doesn’t lose a pick it just comes from MLB

 

https://wtop.com/mlb/2022/03/major-league-baseball-labor-agreement-details/

[Pickles]

36 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

There are comp round picks based on luxury tax stuff

 

Trey isnt getting 18 per season…. If he got a 2 year 24 million deal they’d get nothing. So it will depend on his market and interest level. It’s possible he gets a deal like Canha but not guaranteed. I’d much rather have a average level system 5-10 guy plus another player (25-30 or even outside their top 30) which I believe is fair value than hope to get an end of the third round pick.

But, the signing doesn’t lose a pick it just comes from MLB

 

https://wtop.com/mlb/2022/03/major-league-baseball-labor-agreement-details/

Sounds like he'd need to sign a contract for $55 million to get us a pick, as 25+ is only for revenue sharing payees, which is assuredly not us.

That seems unlikely.  But not impossible.  I'd peg the odds at about 10%.

BTW, are there any updates about the draft negotiations?

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Sounds like he'd need to sign a contract for $55 million to get us a pick, as 25+ is only for revenue sharing payees, which is assuredly not us.

That seems unlikely.  But not impossible.  I'd peg the odds at about 10%.

BTW, are there any updates about the draft negotiations?

Unless I’m reading it wrong we are a payee

 

Quote

pay·ee

/pāˈē/

Learn to pronounce

noun

a person to whom money is paid or is to be paid, especially the person to whom a check is made payable.

 

[Pickles]

17 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Unless I’m reading it wrong we are a payee

 

 

Ok.  Then in that case, let me revise my prediction: There's about a 90% chance that Mancini would deliver a 3rd round draft pick to us.  And about a 10% chance he'd deliver a Comp B pick.

That should factor into the conversation.

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Ok.  Then in that case, let me revise my prediction: There's about a 90% chance that Mancini would deliver a 3rd round draft pick to us.  And about a 10% chance he'd deliver a Comp B pick.

That should factor into the conversation.

so you think he gets a big deal but has little trade value . I think it’s a 1% chance of a comp B pick ABs around 50% on the third I still think he brings a rated prospect and another guy or two.

A 3rd rounder only reaches the majors 40% of the time. If you consider that it’s a sandwich pick it’s actually 38%. Rather trade 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

so you think he gets a big deal but has little trade value . I think it’s a 1% chance of a comp B pick ABs around 50% on the third I still think he brings a rated prospect and another guy or two.

A 3rd rounder only reaches the majors 40% of the time. If you consider that it’s a sandwich pick it’s actually 38%. Rather trade 

When did I say he has little trade value?

Unless he gets injured, he's getting a contract in FA for a guaranteed 25 million.  You can guarantee that.

[waroriole]

11 minutes ago, Pickles said:

When did I say he has little trade value?

Unless he gets injured, he's getting a contract in FA for a guaranteed 25 million.  You can guarantee that.

If he doesn’t net the equivalent of a unknown 3rd round pick, he doesn’t have a lot of trade value. 

[Pickles]

17 minutes ago, waroriole said:

If he doesn’t net the equivalent of a unknown 3rd round pick, he doesn’t have a lot of trade value. 

I never said that either.

I said it is a factor to be considered in the evaluation.  

[waroriole]

Just now, Pickles said:

I never said that either.

I said it is a factor to be considered in the evaluation.  

Right so the evaluation is whether the player offered in return is better than a 3rd round pick. What else would need to be considered?

[Roll Tide]

29 minutes ago, Pickles said:

When did I say he has little trade value?

Unless he gets injured, he's getting a contract in FA for a guaranteed 25 million.  You can guarantee that.

Dont know why you are clamoring for a low success rate comp pick. I can see him getting a 2 year offer for 10-12 per, possibly with an option. Canha got 2/26.5 but he has better positional value than Trey as he’s a better OF

17 minutes ago, waroriole said:

If he doesn’t net the equivalent of a unknown 3rd round pick, he doesn’t have a lot of trade value. 

Exactly 

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Right so the evaluation is whether the player offered in return is better than a 3rd round pick. What else would need to be considered?

The value that Mancini provides to us during our playoff run.

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Dont know why you are clamoring for a low success rate comp pick. I can see him getting a 2 year offer for 10-12 per, possibly with an option. Canha got 2/26.5 but he has better positional value than Trey as he’s a better OF

Exactly 

I think he's going to get something like 3/36.  I guess we'll see.