2022 2nd Round Pick Comp B (#67): Jud Fabian - OF - (Jr) Florida University

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I get that but if he can't hit, at all, the other tools are irrelevant.

It's the one tool that absolutely needs to be present at some level.

Presumably, the Orioles think they can improve his hit tool.   I view Fabian as high risk, high reward.   The chances his hit tool can improve enough for him to be a major leaguer are lower than usual, but if it comes through, he’s probably an above average regular.   Mark Reynolds at the plate but Adam Jones in the field?   That would play pretty nicely.   

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I get that but if he can't hit, at all, the other tools are irrelevant.

It's the one tool that absolutely needs to be present at some level.

Sure, and that is why they took Cowser last year and Holliday over Jones this year. I think they really do value the hit tool. However, now we're getting into the third round or so and most of the guys with good hit tools are low ceiling/low power guys with maybe questions surrounding their defense. At this stage if you can take a guy with two very loud tools and hope you can unlock his hitting ability a bit, you're doing better than teams that are picking a guy that hit .370 in the Big South with little to no power potential. 

[OriolesMagic83]

9 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

So against decent college pitching he was Rob Deer. Yikes.

Joey Gallo lite

[Tony-OH]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Presumably, the Orioles think they can improve his hit tool.   I view Fabian as high risk, high reward.   The chances his hit tool can improve enough for him to be a major leaguer are lower than usual, but if it comes through, he’s probably an above average regular.   Mark Reynolds at the plate but Adam Jones in the field?   That would play pretty nicely.   

That would be a great outcome, but I think there's about a 10% chance of him becoming that player. We'll see. there is talent here but the very low average, particularly the less than .200 average in conference concerns me.

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Joey Gallo lite

Well he's supposedly a better defender than Gallo, so he has that going for him. 

[baltfan]

40 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well he's supposedly a better defender than Gallo, so he has that going for him. 

That would be pretty good because Gallo is an underrated athlete and defender.  I suspect once he gets out of NY, he will be better again.  NY is a tough place to play especially when you make as many outs as he does.  The booing and criticism surely gets tiresome.

[Sports Guy]

43 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That would be a great outcome, but I think there's about a 10% chance of him becoming that player. We'll see. there is talent here but the very low average, particularly the less than .200 average in conference concerns me.

Fabian is their Lamar Jackson pick.  If you can harness the tools, it’s a home run.  If you can’t, he provides very little. 
 

I would have rather seen them pass on him and get someone else but I also recognize the ceiling is there for this guy and I also think we have to remember how the game is changing and how low BA and Ks don’t matter anymore.  

[Jammer7]

8 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

I'm just curious as to why you feel the hit tool will improve from college to pro ball? This is the pick I like the least because of the hitting stats and am interested to learn more about what you've seen that makes you believe he'll get better against tougher competition. (and definitely not challenging your view and opinion, I'm scouting stat lines and video clips and have never seen him play in person, so I'm just genuinely curious).

When he gets to the organization, he’ll have some adjustments in mechanics and approach. The hands and coordination are there. Maybe there are some things with pitch recognition. 

He’s coachable, and he wants to be great. 

[sylvester]

Sounds like Joey Gallo

[LookinUp]

10 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

UF has had several very good prospects lose their way recently with the bat.

The hopeful fan/optimist should pay attention to this post. I don't know how true it is, but it at least gives room for hope.

Some programs teach hitting better than others. Some teach pitching, defense, whatever. The O's might have seen a very talented kid who lost his way in a program that doesn't teach hitting very well.

I don't know how I feel about this pick, but generally speaking I like the idea of targeting talented kids who went to programs that couldn't optimize their talent. The idea is you're buying low. We can only hope.

[Just Regular]

I feel SIg's algorithm has to be pinching itself because Fabian's track the last 12.5 months feels too good to be true.    Same guy we'd have been glad to pay double or triple to last year and we still have him.    Red Sox lose 1 year worth of time value of a pick.     SEC taught him wrong and by the way have you seen how we taught Gunnar Henderson and Coby Mayo?   Everything is coming up Milhouse.

We curate some Fabian improvement and next year Elias' woo to any 18 year old he hopes to keep off campus keeps getting better.

[Jammer7]

56 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

The hopeful fan/optimist should pay attention to this post. I don't know how true it is, but it at least gives room for hope.

Some programs teach hitting better than others. Some teach pitching, defense, whatever. The O's might have seen a very talented kid who lost his way in a program that doesn't teach hitting very well.

I don't know how I feel about this pick, but generally speaking I like the idea of targeting talented kids who went to programs that couldn't optimize their talent. The idea is you're buying low. We can only hope.

The Orioles like what tools he has. They see him as a guy they can help. I’ve know several kids at UF over the last several years. Some were supposed to be first round talents. They regressed. 

[Jammer7]

8 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

You mean the next college outfielder we take? 

We’ll see. I just don’t know. Depends on what they sign the first four for. 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Fabian is their Lamar Jackson pick.  If you can harness the tools, it’s a home run.  If you can’t, he provides very little. 
 

I would have rather seen them pass on him and get someone else but I also recognize the ceiling is there for this guy and I also think we have to remember how the game is changing and how low BA and Ks don’t matter anymore.  

I understand that BA is not the be all end all, but having a low BA against low level pitching is not a good thing. It's pretty clear Sid's analytics no longer cares too much about BA as long as there are walks and power to carry. Me personally, I know the game is changing, but that's a LOW average and the .199 against confernce pitching is a red flag for me.

Saying that, I didn't scout him so I'll be pulling for him to do well. I personally would have gone with a pitcher with this selection, but hey, what do I know? 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I understand that BA is not the be all end all, but having a low BA against low level pitching is not a good thing. It's pretty clear Sid's analytics no longer cares too much about BA as long as there are walks and power to carry. Me personally, I know the game is changing, but that's a LOW average and the .199 against confernce pitching is a red flag for me.

Saying that, I didn't scout him so I'll be pulling for him to do well. I personally would have gone with a pitcher with this selection, but hey, what do I know? 

I don’t disagree.  BA isn’t everything but it’s not meaningless either.  I think he’s got a ton of bust potential and I would have rather seen them go a different direction.

That said, he does represent a big upside and I prefer swinging for the fences for him vs someone like Servideo.