2022 3rd Round Pick (#81): Nolan McLean- P - (Jr) Oklahoma State University

[Sports Guy]

If something came up post draft, so be it.  My point is simple.  The investment is small.  You aren’t talking about spending a ton of money here.  Even if he was going to miss time for a surgery, does that really matter?

I mean, if you felt that sure that he was worth a high pick (and I believe Elias talked about how he had mid rotation ability), why are you not gambling here?

To put this back to Johnson…the Orioles took him on in the Mancini deal because of his upside even after surgery.  Now, it’s possible that despite surgery, the issue they have with McClean is of greater concern than Johnson post surgery.

However, they took the player they deemed to be of the best upside regardless of injury.  Why didn’t they do this here?

Im not really bashing the team here.  They had their reasons and we don’t know the specifics.  What we do know is that they wanted the player and thought highly of him and they obviously aren’t shy about injured pitchers and they know injuries are going to occur.  So why not make this particular investment?

I don’t believe the Os acted maliciously or anything here.  I don’t think this was anything done in bad faith.  Previous regimes I would think that but not this one although ownership always makes me skeptical.

For me, this decision is only justifiable if the injury is something major (worse than TJ) AND his demands were way over slot.  However, if the demands were way over slot, you knew that going into things.  Obviously, if the issue came up post draft, you didn’t know the injury but it’s not like the injury stuff was showing on the field, ala Rocker.

 

[RZNJ]

Simply put. We don't know the whole story. If it's any kind of an issue with the shoulder it's a whole different story.  Yes, they knew his number before they drafted him and it was likely over slot.   They drafted two backup plans.  If McLean is overslot then Young doesn't happen or maybe Young happens and Showalter doesn't happen.  I would have preferred McLean if given the choice and so did the Orioles.  Stuff happens.  Again, I give the benefit of the doubt to Elias.  If they loved McLean and thought it was a TJ issue, I think they still do the deal.  Maybe we'll find out.

Edited August 2, 2022 by RZNJ

[LookinUp]

Given the timing of the Young signing, it really feels like McLean had an over slot agreement that the Os backed off of because of the physical. He is betting on himself to get more money next year, while the Os chose the contingency plan over his perceived risk.

This seems like the exact reason you make contingency plan draft picks. It’s a compliment to Elias’s approach, not a “bad look.”

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Simply put. We don't know the whole story. If it's any kind of an issue with the shoulder it's a whole different story.  Yes, they knew his number before they drafted him and it was likely over slot.   They drafted two backup plans.  If McLean is overslot then Young doesn't happen or maybe Young happens and Showalter doesn't happen.  I would have preferred McLean if given the choice and so did the Orioles.  Stuff happens.  Again, I give the benefit of the doubt to Elias.  If they loved McLean and thought it was a TJ issue, I think they still do the deal.  Maybe we'll find out.

Your first line is what’s important.  We just don’t know.  

I’ll be interested to hear both what the physical showed and what the demands were, if we ever hear.

The demands really  shouldn’t have mattered because you knew that.  So it comes back to the physical.  

Was this something that was very alarming?  Was this something that you could have overlooked?  Was this something that is borderline but it’s worth taking the chance because the investment is minimal?

Unless it was alarming, I think this is a bad decision by the team.  Not because McClean is some stud prospect but because you determined he was a guy you take high.  Those guys almost always sign.  It is rare to not see a top 10 round pick sign.  I mean, you got the 17th rounder to sign and you get the pick next year, so it’s not like you totally lose out.  It’s just that you didn’t get your guy.  
 

My worry here is more about ownership.  It’s not as much a money thing because they did spend later but more of a meddling issue on medicals.  Just not a precedent I like to see.  Hopefully that wasn’t the case.

[ChosenOne21]

Team could have figured if he was going to miss the year anyway, or a year at some point in his development, we were better off giving his money to one of the late round overslots and getting another third round pick next year. Or maybe they just liked Carter Young more and when he took the money their overslot deal with McClean fell through.

Anyway, I'm not too beat up about this. Guy was going to be a massive work in progress and we're picking one spot lower next year

[sportsfan8703]

It’s tough but with a 3rd pick being protected then we have an extra pick next year. I don’t know what the drama was, but it could have been that we simply favored signing Showalter and Young, over McLean. 

[Just Regular]

So....Nolan McLean is Brady Aiken.     And we get a do over.     That scientific method of decision making giving the same result again.

FWIW, since COVID I've read the 2023 draft class is anticipated to be super rich as only the very select Mayos and Baumlers of the High School Class of 2020 got affiliated, so perhaps in this instance the time value loss is less than it normally would be.

[Sports Guy]

This is probably why Elias hates pitchers early. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Just when I thought Elias was going to draft and sign an actual starting pitching prospect in an early round, we get the okie doke.  I assume it was something with his physical.  Injured players get drafted all the time.  We'll probably never know what happened.  One thing we know is that Elias is very risk averse on drafting pitchers early after his Houston experience.

[Can_of_corn]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This is probably why Elias hates pitchers early. 

Yea.  Never heard of a position player being hurt.  I don't think that ever happens.

[Chaka Garcia]

I’m fine not signing McLean and getting the 3rd round compensation next year. I don’t  understand picking someone as a pitcher who barely pitched. Crazy, maybe he saved the FO from themselves by not signing.

[Frobby]

On 8/1/2022 at 10:21 PM, Sports Guy said:

The Os drafted him high and they did so likely knowing everything about his physical.  It didn’t come up after the fact.

He was a guy they took despite the injury and then failed to sign him.  That’s not a good look.  I’m not saying it’s some awful thing but it’s not a good look.

So would you rather have had McLean than Young?   We didn’t have a big enough allotment to sign both, without forfeiting a future pick. 

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

So would you rather have had McLean than Young?   We didn’t have a big enough allotment to sign both, without forfeiting a future pick. 

Yes. 

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes. 

I would agree if I knew what showed up on his physical.   If it’s shoulder related I would disagree with you.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would agree if I knew what showed up on his physical.   If it’s shoulder related I would disagree with you.

This also depends on how you feel about him as a hitter.  He may be the better offense prospect vs Young.