Draft Signings

[brvn52]

8 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Just speculating here, but I have a feeling the O's are working backwards on signing these guys. 

My guess is they're talking a lot with Walters, Young and Showalter and not finalizing the first 10 rounds in hopes they can figure out a way to make it work. If Young, for example, is kinda close on a number, they might try to squeeze a few more dollars out of the earlier round picks.

Could be wrong of course, but the O's have been quiet for a few days here. 

Interesting. I’ve thought the opposite. Seems like they’re trying to knock out the big pieces (top 4 picks have agreed to terms, 3 officially signed) to see how much we have for the late round overslot guys. 

[btdart20]

26 minutes ago, brvn52 said:

My guess is they're talking a lot with Walters, Young and Showalter and not finalizing the first 10 rounds in hopes they can figure out a way to make it work. If Young, for example, is kinda close on a number, they might try to squeeze a few more dollars out of the earlier round picks.

 

26 minutes ago, brvn52 said:

Interesting. I’ve thought the opposite. Seems like they’re trying to knock out the big pieces (top 4 picks have agreed to terms, 3 officially signed) to see how much we have for the late round overslot guys. 

All of the above?  Lock in the day 1 'birds in the hand' was probably the first goal (have to since they seemed to have gone BPA on day 1).  Then work the room to see how the jenga puzzle fits without falling.

From the hype, I would love to see Young sign.  Don't know much about him but it sounds like he's a potential 1st round talent who had an off year.  It would be nice to see if they can drop a mil+ in his lap and see what he does.

[brvn52]

So with Wagner signing for (slightly) above slot, O's have an extra ~$734k to work with. 

I still think there could be some savings with Bright and Johnson - a maximum of $656k (although I doubt it's quite that much). 

I'm guessing the O's have end up with about $1M extra to work with - plus the $125k/pick (for rds 11-20) and ~$847k of the 5% buffer. In total, I'm guessing the O's have about $2.2M to spend on Showalter, Young, and/or Walters, if they want to. 

For some frame of reference:

$1.5M = pick 51

$1M = pick 68

$750k = pick 85

$500k = pick 120/121

[brvn52]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

 

All of the above?  Lock in the day 1 'birds in the hand' was probably the first goal (have to since they seemed to have gone BPA on day 1).  Then work the room to see how the jenga puzzle fits without falling.

From the hype, I would love to see Young sign.  Don't know much about him but it sounds like he's a potential 1st round talent who had an off year.  It would be nice to see if they can drop a mil+ in his lap and see what he does.

I think the good news is they're in a place where they can sign all remaining top 10 round picks to slot and easily sign at least 1, if not 2, of the 3 overslot guys. 

[RZNJ]

I expect Showalter to sign.   The Orioles have never paid the penalty so I don't expect it to happen this year and that would probably preclude either of Walters or Young.

Out of Walter and Young, it's tough to say who is the tougher sign.    I don't think they sign either one but if I had to guess I'd go with Walters.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I expect Showalter to sign.   The Orioles have never paid the penalty so I don't expect it to happen this year and that would probably preclude either of Walters or Young.

Out of Walter and Young, it's tough to say who is the tougher sign.    I don't think they sign either one but if I had to guess I'd go with Walters.

Am I right that there is no penalty unless the overage is above 4.9%?    4.9% of a $16 mm pool is about $800 k.    That’s a lot to play with even if the O’s want to avoid penalties.   

[jerios55]

I think there is a tax, but no picks.  Something like 20%, so an additional cash requirement of like 160k on that 800k.

 

Edit: this says 75%

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-2022-bonus-pools-pick-values

 

 

 

Edited July 26, 2022 by jerios55

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Am I right that there is no penalty unless the overage is above 4.9%?    4.9% of a $16 mm pool is about $800 k.    That’s a lot to play with even if the O’s want to avoid penalties.   

I thought there was a 75% tax on anything over the pool allotment and then further penalties if you exceed the pool by more than 4.9%.

[brvn52]

I doubt the tax matters a ton at this point. The O's aren't going to not sign a player because of actual financial issues, but the bonus pool limit. Each of these guys are worth more to the organization than their signing bonus. 

O's can likely spend about $1M on 2 guys. I think that's enough for Showalter + Walters. I'm guessing Showalter signs for $1M. (No backing to that - just reminds me value-wise of Willems, who signed for $1M). Maybe they save enough money and can sign all 3.

Elias has been good with signing all his guys in these drafts. I can't think of any major players that have walked. Elias seems to have a plan, knows what he can do, and executes. It's not always flashy, but he has done well at signing the guys we draft. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I thought there was a 75% tax on anything over the pool allotment and then further penalties if you exceed the pool by more than 4.9%.

Looks like you’re right, though it’s not unusual for teams to pay the tax:

“Teams that exceed their bonus pool face a penalty. Clubs that outspend their allotment by 0-5 percent pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. At higher thresholds, clubs lose future picks: a first-rounder and a 75 percent tax for surpassing their pool by more than 5 and up to 10 percent; a first- and a second-rounder and a 100 percent tax for more than 10 and up to 15 percent; and two first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 15 percent.

“In 10 Drafts with bonus pool rules, teams have outspent their allotments a total of 172 times, but never by more than 5 percent. The Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers and Giants have done so every year, and 20 of the 30 teams outspent their pools in 2021.”

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-2022-bonus-pools-pick-values

 

[forphase1]

Just announced on the broadcast they signed like 11 or 12 more. 

[brvn52]

Ardoin signs for slot value ($571,400). Trace Bright signs for $26,800 underslot ($400,000). 

O's are ~$761k underslot so far with Holliday, Beavers, Wagner, Fabian, Ardoin, and Bright signed. 

[Frobby]

Showalter was mentioned as someone who had signed on tonight’s broadcast.   They might have mentioned a couple of other names I missed.  

[baltfan]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Showalter was mentioned as someone who had signed on tonight’s broadcast.   They might have mentioned a couple of other names I missed.  

I don’t think he signed.  From MASN story after the game. 
 

The Orioles announced more draft signings that brought their total to 15 out of 22: catcher Silas Ardoin (fourth round), right-hander Trace Bright (fifth), outfielder Douglas Hodo III (sixth), right-hander Preston Johnson (seventh), right-hander Cameron Weston (eighth), infielder Adam Crampton (ninth), right-hander Wyatt Cheney (10th), right-hander Bradley Brehmer (12th), left-hander Jared Beck (13th), catcher Adam Retzbach (14th), right-hander Graham Firoved (16th) and right-hander Reese Sharp (20th).

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/urias-home-run-sparks-5-3-win-and-moves-orioles-above-500

Edited July 27, 2022 by baltfan

[dabirds]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

Showalter was mentioned as someone who had signed on tonight’s broadcast.   They might have mentioned a couple of other names I missed.  

I heard that too Frobby, but I think he misspoke.  He said Mclean and Showalter signed, but those are actually the ones who havent…