Trade Deadline Primer/Thread

[Hallas]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

Also - is what you get for Mancini better than the comp pick you get from offering him the QO?

Sort of agree with Moose that we may just stand pat. Elias' trades have been pretty safe, so I don't expect a blockbuster. Still - there's an obvious SP need, so I'd love to see him land some kind of controllable SP even if the guy needs some work. At the end of the day, the offseason might just make more sense. We'll know a lot more by then. 

If we offer him a QO, Mancini is accepting the QO 100%.  We aren't getting a comp pick for him.

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, vab said:

Speculation from Sporting News:

 

Dom Smith, IF/OF, Mets

Smith is due for a change of scenery and considering the Mets are finding ways to improve their offense, don't be surprised if he's shipped off as part of a Trey Mancini deal. Smith's value is at a low, and the Orioles would likely appreciate his team control through 2024.

Prediction: Orioles

If he's a throw in with Peterson, I'm fine with that.  However, I'm not giving up anything of value.  I'd also prefer a SP with some potential upside.

A couple other things:

- Mancini won't get the QO, no way he's worth that much, so don't worry about the pick we get back

- We struggle with rental vs. long term.  This team isn't going to give up rental pieces for more valuable rental pieces (ie Mancini vs. Peterson).  It's one or the other.

- These guys will clear space naturally - you don't have to offer Mancini a contract and he's your rental.  Same with Santander/Lopez next year.  They do still provide value this year even though they walk eventually.  It's not like their value is negative to the team daily.

- The argument remains on replacement pieces - ie. is Stowers really better, both current and future, or even Smith for that matter, than Santander/Mancini.  You don't know for sure, so you have to decide if 1.5-2 wins for $10 mil is worth the unknown at $500k.  Trust Elias here, because this team has money it can spend to go either way

[Hank Scorpio]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

If you're going to move Mancini, Santander should be moved too.  If you're going to make room for youth, make room.

 

I would expect more of a return for Santander. He may just dump Mancini.

[clapdiddy]

1 minute ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I would expect more of a return for Santander. He may just dump Mancini.

Agreed.   Santander plays a passable OF...can't say the same for Trey.    He also supplies more power to a lineup.

Edited July 29, 2022 by clapdiddy

[RVAOsFan]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

If you're going to move Mancini, Santander should be moved too.  If you're going to make room for youth, make room.

 

I don't necessarily agree with this.  Moving one or the other creates an opening for Stowers to come up and get at bats.  I don't think there is another OF or 1B/DH they have an interest in getting at bats this year.  Cowser next year maybe.

Trading both guys opens up a hole they don't have a plug for right now.  No sense on creating holes when you are finally starting to plug them all.

[RVAOsFan]

3 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I would expect more of a return for Santander. He may just dump Mancini.

I think if he trades Santander he holds on Mancini.

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Hallas said:

If we offer him a QO, Mancini is accepting the QO 100%.  We aren't getting a comp pick for him.

Woops, you're right. I'm not sure where my brain was on that one lol. 

[RVAOsFan]

3 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Agreed.   Santander plays a passable OF...can't say the same for Trey.    He also supplies more power to a lineup.

He is also under control and fairly affordable for the next couple years.  

[Hank Scorpio]

It makes less than zero sense to take back Dom Smith in a deal. We’re good on outfielders and position players in general the next couple years.

Any deals we make need to return all or mostly pitching. A guy like Peterson makes sense to me as a piece in a Mancini/Tate deal. 3 more years of control, left handed, tangible ML experience. 

[Moose Milligan]

11 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I don't necessarily agree with this.  Moving one or the other creates an opening for Stowers to come up and get at bats.  I don't think there is another OF or 1B/DH they have an interest in getting at bats this year.  Cowser next year maybe.

Trading both guys opens up a hole they don't have a plug for right now.  No sense on creating holes when you are finally starting to plug them all.

That's fine, but I don't think they should trade one, only to hold onto another.  If the deals make sense and Elias is offered prospects back that make sense, he should do the deal no matter what.  

[seak05]

If Mancini and Santander are both traded, it just means they can call up Stowers and rotate the DH spot more easily. Adley is already getting some at bats there, Mullins and Hays could get half rest days playing DH, and if you want to call up some of the IF prospects it gives you more flexibility, 

I would trade Santander before Mancini though. I just don't think the return on Mancini is going to be anything of value. Santander is a good player with years of control left, so you're more likely to get a return that helps the team, and it's a position of excess 

[ShoelesJoe]

15 minutes ago, interloper said:

Also - is what you get for Mancini better than the comp pick you get from offering him the QO?

 

I keep seeing people referring to the Orioles making or not making a QO to Mancini. Isn’t there a mutual option in place for 2023? If Trey agrees to the option but the team does not how does that impact his FA status? Not at all, I would imagine. But what if the O’s agree to the option and he doesn’t? Is a QO still required for the team to get compensated? 
 

I don’t expect the option to be relevant, but stranger things have happened. 

[NedFromYork]

If he isn't traded, is there a chance Mancini doesn't get more per year in the offseason market than the $11M (?) mutual option and opts back in to play for a better two or three year contract starting 2024?

Edited July 29, 2022 by NedFromYork

[Hank Scorpio]

3 minutes ago, seak05 said:

If Mancini and Santander are both traded, it just means they can call up Stowers and rotate the DH spot more easily. Adley is already getting some at bats there, Mullins and Hays could get half rest days playing DH, and if you want to call up some of the IF prospects it gives you more flexibility, 

I would trade Santander before Mancini though. I just don't think the return on Mancini is going to be anything of value. Santander is a good player with years of control left, so you're more likely to get a return that helps the team, and it's a position of excess 

Yeah you’re going to have to package Mancini with one of the bullpen arms to garner anything worthwhile.

Lopez could garner a legit return, plus you could replace him with Bautista and not miss a beat. 

[interloper]

 

3 minutes ago, NedFromYork said:

If he isn't traded, is there a chance Mancini doesn't get more per year in the offseason market than the $11M (?) mutual option and opts back in to play for a better two or three year contract starting 2024?

There's definitely a case to be made that the club could want him around next year. His agent almost certainly will say hell no, you're testing free agency. That said, say Mountcastle suffers a bad injury next year, the O's would be glad to have Mancini because their true 1B options are real thin. To me, Santander is the guy to move. There's so much more OF depth. You can still find room for both Mounty and Mancini in the lineup with Stowers taking over a COF spot. Mancini isn't really blocking anyone if Santander is traded. 

Edited July 29, 2022 by interloper