Adley Rutschman’s “First Half”

[sportsfan8703]

I don’t think we would’ve gotten off to that 8-14 start with him, or went through that losing stretch around Preakness.

[Sports Guy]

Just saw that he is third in rWAR amongst rookies. 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 8/2/2022 at 11:52 PM, SpOkane said:

There's no way Adley's going to surpass .900.

Not till next year.

[interloper]

Edited August 4, 2022 by interloper

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, interloper said:

Some people (one!) preferred Witt over Rutschman.   When Witt was tearing up AAA we heard about it.   Now, not so much.

[Filmstudy]

17 minutes ago, interloper said:

Relative rookie years here are not close.  Per WAA, Bobby Witt turns your otherwise .500 team into a .496 team.

Adley Rutschman turns your otherwise .500 team into a .529 team.

Over the course of 162 games that 5.3 more wins.

Yes, both players should get better and Witt is younger, but the apparent need for Witt to move to the right on the defensive spectrum has ill portent for the Royals.

[OriolesMagic83]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Just saw that he is third in rWAR amongst rookies. 

You still want Witt instead?

[Orioles4Life21]

Next thing I’d like to see from Adley is some success vs lefties. He’s over .900 Ops against righties but .500 against lefties. Which is interesting considering last year in the minors he was over 1.000 against lefties and in the .800s I believe against righties 

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Some people (one!) preferred Witt over Rutschman.   When Witt was tearing up AAA we heard about it.   Now, not so much.

Witt is on pace for a 3.5+ WAR season and he just turned 22.  He has  109 wRC+.  

When Adley was 22, he didn’t play because of COVID.   At age 23, he was in the minors the whole year, albeit that’s the Orioles fault for making a  there.

That said, being down on Witts season right now is the height of stupidity.  If he was an Oriole, we would all be ecstatic with where he is and how he comps to Adley and other young stars.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Orioles4Life21 said:

Next thing I’d like to see from Adley is some success vs lefties. He’s over .900 Ops against righties but .500 against lefties. Which is interesting considering last year in the minors he was over 1.000 against lefties and in the .800s I believe against righties 

His exit velocity is in the 58th percentile I believe I saw.  He needs to start hitting the ball harder and driving it with more consistent but I agree that the lefty thing is the biggest thing right now.

That said, he has been excellent so far and is only going to get better.  He’s already the best player on the team, by a wide margin imo.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Witt is on pace for a 3.5+ WAR season and he just turned 22.

When Adley was 22, he didn’t play because of COVID.   At age 23, he was in the minors the whole year, albeit that’s the Orioles fault for making a  there.

That said, being down on Witts season right now is the height of stupidity.  If he was an Oriole, we would all be ecstatic with where he is and how he comps to Adley and other young stars.

I think the Orioles made the right choice.  Just checking to see if you would still choose Witt if you were in charge.   Guess we know your answer.  LOL

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Witt is on pace for a 3.5+ WAR season and he just turned 22.

When Adley was 22, he didn’t play because of COVID.   At age 23, he was in the minors the whole year, albeit that’s the Orioles fault for making a  there.

That said, being down on Witts season right now is the height of stupidity.  If he was an Oriole, we would all be ecstatic with where he is and how he comps to Adley and other young stars.

Crazy that he has such a huge discrepancy between fWAR and rWAR.  I will say that neither of them have him on pace for a 3.5+ WAR season.

 

[Big Mac]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Witt is on pace for a 3.5+ WAR season and he just turned 22.  He has  109 wRC+.  

When Adley was 22, he didn’t play because of COVID.   At age 23, he was in the minors the whole year, albeit that’s the Orioles fault for making a  there.

That said, being down on Witts season right now is the height of stupidity.  If he was an Oriole, we would all be ecstatic with where he is and how he comps to Adley and other young stars.

I think it's certainly fair to still prefer Witt going forward.  I think Adley is clearly the better player right now (and as you noted he is two years older).  That being said, if Witt can't stick on the left side of the dirt I would definitely prefer Adley, but it's way too sign to make that decision on Witt defensively IMO. 

[Remember The Alomar]

Perhaps this means nothing as it's something that should, in theory, effect every player equally, but it's impressive what Adley is doing in the 2022 run environment. If you showed me his triple slash before the season started, without knowing how low scoring would be, I'd be pretty happy. However, I wonder how much giddier we'd be if his OPS+ was the same but with higher counting numbers, a greater triple slash, etc. due to a more friendly run-scoring environment. 

The correct answer is probably "it shouldn't change your opinion at all," but psychologically, I think it's had some passive effect on our perspective, no matter how high we are on him. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I think it's certainly fair to still prefer Witt going forward.  I think Adley is clearly the better player right now (and as you noted he is two years older).  That being said, if Witt can't stick on the left side of the dirt I would definitely prefer Adley, but it's way too sign to make that decision on Witt defensively IMO. 

Defense peaks early.

If he's struggling now it is likely to get worse as he ages.