Adley Rutschman’s “First Half”

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I think it's certainly fair to still prefer Witt going forward.  I think Adley is clearly the better player right now (and as you noted he is two years older).  That being said, if Witt can't stick on the left side of the dirt I would definitely prefer Adley, but it's way too sign to make that decision on Witt defensively IMO. 

His OAA at third is 0.  SS it’s at -5.
 

It depends on why the errors are happening.   
 

Not really concerned with but I do agree if he can’t stay on the left side that’s an issue, unless he has the ability to play a good CF.

[Big Mac]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Defense peaks early.

If he's struggling now it is likely to get worse as he ages.

Agreed, I just don't think we have enough of a sample size on his advanced defensive metrics to really know if he is struggling yet. 

[geschinger]

16 hours ago, Big Mac said:

I think it's certainly fair to still prefer Witt going forward.  I think Adley is clearly the better player right now (and as you noted he is two years older).  That being said, if Witt can't stick on the left side of the dirt I would definitely prefer Adley, but it's way too sign to make that decision on Witt defensively IMO. 

In a vaccum, yes it is fair.  All things being equal give choising a catcher with the skillset Adley has over even a top notch SS prospect is somewhat of a no brainer.  We can see just in the Orioles system alone that good SS prospects are not all that rare.  I think the Orioles got one who may end up better than Witt in that same draft. 

[Filmstudy]

Another note on Rutschman's amazing rookie year...

Most of what we have heard to date in terms of greatness involves projection to a 162-game season or rate statistics like OPS.  However, as of Today, in 60 games (!), Adley Rutschman has the 16th highest WAA (2.0, a cumulative statistic) for any rookie catcher in MLB history.  

https://stathead.com/tiny/JXsmY

If he continues at the same rate, he'll crack the top 5 of all time with almost 4 WAA which could put him as high as 3rd all time behind only Fisk and Piazza, but ahead of Thurman Munson, Josh Gibson, Johnny Bench, and Buster Posey.

[Orioles Jim]

On 8/5/2022 at 11:57 AM, geschinger said:

In a vaccum, yes it is fair.  All things being equal give choising a catcher with the skillset Adley has over even a top notch SS prospect is somewhat of a no brainer.  We can see just in the Orioles system alone that good SS prospects are not all that rare.  I think the Orioles got one who may end up better than Witt in that same draft. 

To that point^

[Sports Guy]

 

[Can_of_corn]

I totes think he should give up switch hitting after 70 plate appearances.

Makes a lot of sense.

[Orioles Jim]

.825 OPS vs lefties in 2021 in the minors as a right handed batter and .508 OPS vs lefties in the minors in 2022.

Might be something to it.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Orioles Jim said:

.825 OPS vs lefties in 2021 in the minors as a right handed batter and .508 OPS vs lefties in the minors in 2022.

Might be something to it.

That's probably better than he's going to do L/L.

I'd give it a full season in the majors before I even seriously considered it.

[geschinger]

28 minutes ago, Orioles Jim said:

.825 OPS vs lefties in 2021 in the minors as a right handed batter and .508 OPS vs lefties in the minors in 2022.

Might be something to it.

I think you have the 2021 number reversed.  His OPS as RHB vs lefties in 2021 was 1.060.  The .825 OPS was as a LHB vs righties. 

Edited August 7, 2022 by geschinger

[Orioles Jim]

3 hours ago, geschinger said:

I think you have the 2021 number reversed.  His OPS as RHB vs lefties in 2021 was 1.060.  The .825 OPS was as a LHB vs righties. 

Huh, okay that’s interesting! And dispels that theory!

Good to see you geschinger! I remember the good ol days of IndyStar!

[cnmilton]

Does Adley have a chance of finishing high in the Rookie of the Year vote? More importantly, do the Os have a chance to pick up a draft pick because of Adleys rookie season?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, cnmilton said:

Does Adley have a chance of finishing high in the Rookie of the Year vote? More importantly, do the Os have a chance to pick up a draft pick because of Adleys rookie season

They won't get a pick because he didn't start the season on the ML roster.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

 

[geschinger]

7 hours ago, cnmilton said:

Does Adley have a chance of finishing high in the Rookie of the Year vote? More importantly, do the Os have a chance to pick up a draft pick because of Adleys rookie season?

He has a great chance of finishing high enough to earn himself a full year of service time eliminating the extra year of control the O's thought they might have ended up with once he got hurt in Spring Training.