Poll: What’s your take on the Lopez trade

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, owknows said:

It was 12 appearances. More than he had in an other month of the year,

During that time he had a 4.76 ERA

During that time he gave up a .304 batting average.

During that time he gave up a .916 OPS

During that time he gave up his only 3 home runs of the year.

In the month of August... for Minnesota.... he's only had two appearances... (admittedly SSS)

But in August... he's surrendered a 4.50 ERA, and a .333 BA Consistent with his July numbers.

 

I don't understand you propensity to make declarative statement like "his July stats weren't a warning sign"... when clearly they were. But whatever.

This was a good trade.

 

 

 

1). Have you looked at Bautistas August stats?  I guess you are ready to move him out of the closers role?

2)  I’m guessing by you saying you don’t understand why I’m downplaying those numbers that you don’t understand why those numbers aren’t predictive or overly super important.

3)  Yea, he had 12 outings.  8 of which he wasn’t scored on and another where he was but it was mostly do to the dumb ass extra inning rules.

4) if those stats are so important, how come he gave up 5 runs in the first 3 outings and then 1 run the rest of the month?

In the 10 innings after those 3 outings, he gave up 7 hits, walked 2 and struck 12.

So yea, it’s a small sample size that is based around 3 outings that were then followed up by more of his regular dominance.  
 

So yes, it’s meaningless and a sign of nothing.

Edited August 6, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, owknows said:

I didn't make any such posts. Or in any way suggest that I had any powers of prognostication in that regard.

I simply reviewed his record after the trade, and said... WOW... didn't realize he was having such a rough July.

But I'd imagine the club knew it... and acted accordingly.

And just between you and I... sometimes it's OK for you to be wrong. You don't have to get your panties in a bunch when it happens. It happens to all of us. People don't think any less of you for it. But what they do think less of you for, is your tendency to personalize it.

It is ok for me to be wrong..but I’m not wrong here.  You are the ones getting upset because I’m telling you why your bs stats meaningless.

Lets call this for what it is.  In your undying devotion to Elias and everything he does, you are searching for reason to justify this trade because I (and many others) don’t personally like it.  
 

You didn’t make those posts because there was no reason to and you know it.  

[owknows]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

1). Have you looked at Bautistas August stats?  I guess you read to move him out of the closers role?

2)  I’m guessing by your saying you don’t understand why I’m downplaying those numbers that you don’t understand why those numbers aren’t predictive or overly super important.

3)  Yea, he had 12 outings.  8 of which he wasn’t scored on and another where he was but it was mostly do to the dumb ass extra inning rules.

4) if those stats are so important, how come he gave up 5 runs in the first 3 outings and then 1 run the rest of the month?

In the 10 innings after those 3 outings, he gave up 7 hits, walked 2 and struck 12.

So yea, it’s a small sample size that is based around 3 outings that were then followed up by more of his regular dominance.  
 

So yes, it’s meaningless and a sign of nothing.

Lopez Surrendered earned runs in 5 of his last 14 appearances (since July 1st)

This compares to June, where he surrendered 0 earned runs in any game, in 11 appearances.

or to May, where he surrendered total of 1 earned run in any game, in 11 appearances.

I didn't compare his performance to any other pitcher.

I didn't say he stinks on ice.

I didn't say he won't be a great pitcher going forward.

I said he regressed in July, and that this was a good trade.

I think that's pretty obvious.

If you feel the need to pretend it isn't so, in order to preserve your own sense of self-worth... I'm not really gonna care too much about that.

[DirtyBird]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, you don’t understand. That much is clear.

Oh, I understand clearly. You are going to go out of your way to minimize any negatives about Lopez (like not mentioning the 104 ev last night).

The guy is a closer. He pitches 1 inning per outing. His career is based on small samples sizes. That is why the position is so volatile - small sample sizes can have large impacts.

So, it is disingenuous to minimize his negative stats due to "small sample size" while using his positive outings to define who he is and who he will be.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Oh, I understand clearly. You are going to go out of your way to minimize any negatives about Lopez (like not mentioning the 104 ev last night).

The guy is a closer. He pitches 1 inning per outing. His career is based on small samples sizes. That is why the position is so volatile - small sample sizes can have large impacts.

So, it is disingenuous to minimize his negative stats due to "small sample size" while using his positive outings to define who he is and who he will be.

1). I didn’t mention it because it doesn’t matter.  Every pitcher in baseball will give up hard hit balls.  What I am demonstrating is that he was unlucky.  But that is also why I have said he is a 2.2-3 ERA guy.  That stuff tends to even out and that’s where many of his predictive stats say he should be.

However, if he wasn’t dealt and this outing occurred while with the Os and someone came on here bashing Lopez and saying he shouldn’t be the closer, I’m guessing most would have pointed out what I did and laughed at the idiotic thread intentions.  

2) Im Not minimizing anything.  Im pointing out facts.  I realize arguing in facts offends some people but it is what it is.  And the facts are that the stats that are best for predictive value don’t show some huge regression or drop off is about to occur.  Sure, he may have a few more outings like last night where a bs run gets scored but you can say that about basically any reliever.  It’s going to happen to the best of them.  Hader has an ERA over 4 this year.  Do you think he’s bad?

3). And yes, SSS can absolutely effect his stats..thank you for proving my point.  But even within a SSS of a season, you have even smaller sample sizes that effect things.  
 

Taking the totality of a full month, when he was great for most it and struggled early in the month in 3 outings, and acting like non predictive stats mean something is terrible analysis.

Edited August 6, 2022 by Sports Guy

[DirtyBird]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Taking the totality of a full month, when he was great for most it and struggled early in the month in 3 outings, and acting like non predictive stats mean something is terrible analysis.

A month where he had two blown save losses and a 10th inning loss where he allowed 2 runs, walking two and giving up 2 hits.

That's pretty significant, even if he was "great most of it"

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

A month where he had two blown save losses and a 10th inning loss where he allowed 2 runs, walking two and giving up 2 hits.

That's pretty significant, even if he was "great most of it"

No., it’s not significant, at least not in the big picture.  Its only significant at that moment in time.
 

It’s a blip on the radar and something that happens in baseball everyday.

Edited August 6, 2022 by Sports Guy

[DirtyBird]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No., it’s not significant, at least not in the big picture.  Its only significant at that moment in time.
 

It’s a blip on the radar and something that happens in baseball everyday.

If 3 losses in a month from a closer is insignificant, then it definitely wasn't vital to keep him around.

[RZNJ]

Jorge Lopez is good.  Probably even very good.   He's got 5 blown saves on the year.   He's not elite.  Probably won't become elite.   We've got about 5 pitchers in the bullpen who are good to very good.   I could put most of those guys into the closer role and get 20 saves in 25 save chances.    I do believe losing him hurts the team and bullpen but it isn't HUGE and it can be overcome.

[Billy F-Face3]

On 8/2/2022 at 4:20 PM, jabba72 said:

I dont think the return is enough but I'll hope Elias makes me eat my words in a few years. I'll be happy to be wrong. There could be some analytical information on these pitchers the O's really like. But right now I dont like it.

I find this thread fascinating. I wanted to know how this board talked around last years trade deadline so I did a search looking for the trade deadline and this thread about the Lopez trade popped up.

Considering that both Cano and Bautista were just officially named All Stars, and that Cade Povich is still projected to progress to a rotation piece... I think it's safe to say that the Orioles front office know what they are doing.

We as fans should just sit back and enjoy the winning.

[Moose Milligan]

99 MPH SINKER 

[Moose Milligan]

On 8/2/2022 at 4:20 PM, Moose Milligan said:

Initial reaction isn't great, but we got 4 arms for a guy who we, IIRC, picked up off waivers and rehabilitated into a good (not amazing) closer.  

I think the role of a closer is a bit overrated and I don't think Lopez was an elite one.  Also, it's not as if we don't have a guy (Bautista) who looks like he could step in and actually be elite.  

Lopez was looking amazing and he had a few hiccups right before the All-Star Break and he's blown a save after the break, too.  I think we sold high on him.  That said, for his sake I'd like to be wrong and I hope he has continued success in Minnesota because he seems like a good dude.

As far as the return we got, like I said...4 arms for a guy that, 6 months ago, no one thought anything of.  And all of a sudden people are acting like we traded prime Eckersley for spare parts.

We have to see how Lopez does in his new digs and we have to see if any of the arms we got today turn into valuable pieces.  This isn't one of those trades you can jump to conclusions on, despite the fact that that's exactly what sports message boards are for.

I’ll also pat myself on the back here. 

[emmett16]

This thread is hilarious to re-read. It also shows why scouting and the human element are still very important.  You can look stats all day but if you don’t have eyes on the ground to see what’s going on in the background you can shoot an air ball.  Lopez is out of Baseball currently and we have an All-Star, top tier prospect, and a live arm prospect with potential.  This trade is a solid A (already) with potential to be an A+. 

[Flash- bd]

On 8/3/2022 at 1:48 AM, Flash- bd said:

I voted other because I do rate López and think he'll continue to be a top reliever for a while, and I was expecting somewhat of a better return. But in principle I love the fact we went ahead and traded him at the height of his value. 

If I could vote again I might just change it to Like it-- after reading some of the takes on Povich and the younger arms. Interested to see what we can do with Cano, too. 

Trading a reliever at the height of his value = almost always good business. 

[sportsfan8703]

Would the Twins do a Givens + prospect for Lopez? Why not try and buy low on a guy that coming back to Baltimore might help him get his issues figured out.