Poll: What’s your take on the Lopez trade

[LookinUp]

Not sure I saw this in time to vote (vacation). I trust Elias on the arms, especially since we kicked in cash, but I also really value two great arms at the back of a bullpen. I fear our bullpen will need that extra arm at some point. 

[Sports Guy]

A few days later and I’m still scratching my head at this move.  I just don’t get it.

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

A few days later and I’m still scratching my head at this move.  I just don’t get it.

Elias probably wishing we sold high on Mullins and Means this offseason. 
 

Trading Lopez opens up the door for Bautista to rack up some saves, and get some national attentions. Maybe he can sneak into the #3 spot in ROY voting behind Rodriguez and Peña, and get us the extra comp pick. Highly unlikely because AR might do that. 
 

Now onto the return from the Twins… Cano looks like he can be 6th/7th inning guy with some refining. “Maury” Povich blew up this year and was regarded much higher than ranking sites had him. Then we got two other low level arms that don’t need to be on the 40 man. 
 

IMO, let’s just complete the circle of this trade, and pick up Joe Smith that the Twins DFA’d. Maybe some time in DFA land will let him freshen up a bit. I think he fits well into our pen with all the guys that throw gas. 

[Ridgway22]

Just a one fans reaction from watching O's games on TV......

Lopez obviously had a great statistical half, and there is no doubting the stuff.

But he just never gave me that gut feeling he was hard as nails, like you want to see in a closer. I have zero stats or quotes to back me up, like I'm saying, just a gut feeling. Am I saying he'd wilt in October if he got knocked around a few times? No idea.

As to the return, no clue about any of the pitchers. I trust Elias & Co. to have sorted that out.

 

[Number5]

24 minutes ago, Ridgway22 said:

Just a one fans reaction from watching O's games on TV......

Lopez obviously had a great statistical half, and there is no doubting the stuff.

But he just never gave me that gut feeling he was hard as nails, like you want to see in a closer. I have zero stats or quotes to back me up, like I'm saying, just a gut feeling. Am I saying he'd wilt in October if he got knocked around a few times? No idea.

As to the return, no clue about any of the pitchers. I trust Elias & Co. to have sorted that out.

 

Elias and his staff have earned my trust, so if they are high on the pitchers we received for Lopez, I'm in favor of the deal.  Having said that, I have to give Lopez his due.  He did get roughed up in two games at the beginning of July and not only didn't wilt, but came back strong.  He really has had an impressive season for us.

[DirtyBird]

27 minutes ago, Ridgway22 said:

Just a one fans reaction from watching O's games on TV......

Lopez obviously had a great statistical half, and there is no doubting the stuff.

But he just never gave me that gut feeling he was hard as nails, like you want to see in a closer. I have zero stats or quotes to back me up, like I'm saying, just a gut feeling. Am I saying he'd wilt in October if he got knocked around a few times? No idea.

As to the return, no clue about any of the pitchers. I trust Elias & Co. to have sorted that out.

 

There are stats that support your gut.

The closer the game, the worse his numbers, and medium leverage situations much better than high leverage.

[jamalshw]

I really need to see what Cano and Povich are before I make up my mind. I'm still undecided. Povich is clearly the centerpiece and the team likes him more than the rankings do. If they're right on him, it's a good deal and a win. And if Cano can transition to the major league pen from his strong minor league numbers (with some coaching help), that's even better. 

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

A few days later and I’m still scratching my head at this move.  I just don’t get it.

I don't love the return either but my best guess:

1. Elias sees Lopez as an expendable reliever who is outperforming, due for regression, and potentially overvalued.

2. Therefore, he planned to trade Lopez for what he can get now rather than pay his arbitration salary next year. Elias is not one to deviate from his plan.

3. The best package available was Cano and Povich. Cano is a guy Elias thinks can help us as soon as '23 and replace much of Lopez's production. Short term he thinks we're not losing much, long term we might have a rotation piece plus some other bullpen arms. We also have $3M or so more flexibility for next year, which could even be used to bring in a veteran reliever (say Boxberger/Knebel/Givens).  

Not defending it but I think that's the thinking. If you think Lopez is in fact a viable closer, then trading him was a mistake. If you think he is a ticking time bomb, then trading him for best available package makes sense.  

 

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Hallas said:

The tenor of this board regarding the Lopez trade is drastically different from nearly every other outlet I've found.  This place seems to be neutral/positive for it, and a lot of other places are panning this trade.

The poll results basically show 28% against, 30% for, 38% don’t know and 4% other.   I’d call that mixed.   It is probably more positive than other places because many people here, me included, are willing to give Elias & co. the benefit of the doubt that they know more than Jim Callis or whatever pundits are evaluating the prospects we received.   It’s certainly not a trade that looks like an obvious winner on paper.  

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't love the return either but my best guess:

1. Elias sees Lopez as an expendable reliever who is outperforming, due for regression, and potentially overvalued.

2. Therefore, he planned to trade Lopez for what he can get now rather than pay his arbitration salary next year. Elias is not one to deviate from his plan.

3. The best package available was Cano and Povich. Cano is a guy Elias thinks can help us as soon as '23 and replace much of Lopez's production. Short term he thinks we're not losing much, long term we might have a rotation piece plus some other bullpen arms. We also have $3M or so more flexibility for next year, which could even be used to bring in a veteran reliever (say Boxberger/Knebel/Givens).  

Not defending it but I think that's the thinking. If you think Lopez is in fact a viable closer, then trading him was a mistake. If you think he is a ticking time bomb, then trading him for best available package makes sense.  

 

If this is his thinking, it’s really really bad thinking.

[Hallas]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The poll results basically show 28% against, 30% for, 38% don’t know and 4% other.   I’d call that mixed.   It is probably more positive than other places because many people here, me included, are willing to give Elias & co. the benefit of the doubt that they know more than Jim Callis or whatever pundits are evaluating the prospects we received.   It’s certainly not a trade that looks like an obvious winner on paper.  

When I had looked earlier I think it the percentage for was a bit higher and against was a bit lower.  I did say neutral/positive, and that's still technically true, if only by a hair.  Regardless a lot of other places are blasting this trade, from pundits to other fan outlets.  Pretty big difference in reaction.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The poll results basically show 28% against, 30% for, 38% don’t know and 4% other.   I’d call that mixed.   It is probably more positive than other places because many people here, me included, are willing to give Elias & co. the benefit of the doubt that they know more than Jim Callis or whatever pundits are evaluating the prospects we received.   It’s certainly not a trade that looks like an obvious winner on paper.  

Well, this site is generally more positive. It’s always been that way.  

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't love the return either but my best guess:

1. Elias sees Lopez as an expendable reliever who is outperforming, due for regression, and potentially overvalued.

2. Therefore, he planned to trade Lopez for what he can get now rather than pay his arbitration salary next year. Elias is not one to deviate from his plan.

3. The best package available was Cano and Povich. Cano is a guy Elias thinks can help us as soon as '23 and replace much of Lopez's production. Short term he thinks we're not losing much, long term we might have a rotation piece plus some other bullpen arms. We also have $3M or so more flexibility for next year, which could even be used to bring in a veteran reliever (say Boxberger/Knebel/Givens).  

Not defending it but I think that's the thinking. If you think Lopez is in fact a viable closer, then trading him was a mistake. If you think he is a ticking time bomb, then trading him for best available package makes sense.  

 

I don't think Elias believes Lopez is due for a regression.  And I don't think the raise from 1.5m to 3 or 4m caused the trade.

I think Elias knows he needs starting pitching going forward and Sig/Holt and company are tells him the Povich is someone they can make into a front line starter.   Lopez  was tradeable because the O's have a strong pen.  Especially if the return is a front line starter.  

I don't know that Elias/Holt are right but who knows.  That is my guess.

Edited August 4, 2022 by wildcard

[Hallas]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't love the return either but my best guess:

1. Elias sees Lopez as an expendable reliever who is outperforming, due for regression, and potentially overvalued.

2. Therefore, he planned to trade Lopez for what he can get now rather than pay his arbitration salary next year. Elias is not one to deviate from his plan.

3. The best package available was Cano and Povich. Cano is a guy Elias thinks can help us as soon as '23 and replace much of Lopez's production. Short term he thinks we're not losing much, long term we might have a rotation piece plus some other bullpen arms. We also have $3M or so more flexibility for next year, which could even be used to bring in a veteran reliever (say Boxberger/Knebel/Givens).  

Not defending it but I think that's the thinking. If you think Lopez is in fact a viable closer, then trading him was a mistake. If you think he is a ticking time bomb, then trading him for best available package makes sense.  

 

 

He is due for some regression by FIP, but if he puts up a 2.80 ERA next year (much closer to his FIP number) he's still going to command the same amount in trade.  The only explanation that makes sense to me is that he honest-to-god thinks that he has a process in place to find another Lopez from the failed-starter scrap heap that other clubs can't replicate, but since the team can really only give 1 guy significant save opportunities, by trading Lopez now he frees up more save opportunities to give to the next Lopez while getting prospects in return.

 

While the latter may be true, I find it to be full of hubris and loaded with risk.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, wildcard said:

I don't think Elias believes Lopez is due for a regression.  And I don't the raise from 1.5m to 3 or 4m caused the trade.

I think Elias knows he needs starting pitching going forward and Holt and company are tells him the Povich is someone they can make into a front line starter.   Lopez  was tradeable because the O's have a strong pen.  Especially if the return is a front line starter.   That is my guess.

I think this is more his thinking.  Elias just really likes the return and feels we have depth.  It’s that simple.