Punting the Season

[Camden_yardbird]

Punting the season?

They traded a guy who for all intents and purposes was a free agent after the season and sold high on a waiver wire player having a career year.  Yes, they didn't add to the roster.

Like or not, this is the Tampa model that people want the Orioles to follow.  There is no asset that is sacred outside of 1-2 key prospects who are willing to sign early extensions, and even then its only while they are cheap. And there is no position in the standings that locks their roster up either.  Tampa churns and churns.  There were reports they were discussing Ji Man Choi with teams a week ago.  He has the third most WAR on that team.

[Number5]

5 hours ago, waroriole said:

There’s 2 or 3 potential All Stars here. 

[sportsfan8703]

Did we pull a Beane and trade Pena so we could play Hatteberg?  Hatteberg being AR DH’ing more, Vavra and Stowers playing more. 

[spiritof66]

8 hours ago, RZNJ said:

You’re right but let’s see if Bryan Baker and Joey Kriehble can take on more high leverage situations and step up to the challenge.  

That's only part of it. To keep it simple, assume that Bautista replaces Lopez, and Kriehble replaces Bautista, with little or no decline in performance. Who replaces Kriehble? At some point, the music stops, and whoever takes the innings that would have been Lopez's is almost certain to be less effective than Lopez. If you try to redistribute those Lopez innings by having your top few bullpen guys each take on just a few more innings, you increase the risk of fatigue, leading to their ineffectiveness or even injury.

No two ways about it. Losing Lopez is a hit to the bullpen and to the 2022 Orioles. 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

16 hours ago, owknows said:

Pass that jug over here... 

I'll have some of what you're smoking.

[oriolefan1035]

Road series sweep. Possibility that GrayRod is back for a postseason push. 1.5GB at the 105 game mark. The question really isn’t how can we possibly make the playoffs, but why not.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, oriolefan1035 said:

Road series sweep. Possibility that GrayRod is back for a postseason push. 1.5GB at the 105 game mark. The question really isn’t how can we possibly make the playoffs, but why not.

 

 

[Barnaby Graves]

I don't see anyone punting on the season.  Personally I'm excited and think the Orioles are sort of playing with house money right now.  It will be good for them to continue to promote players and have them gain experience in what I hope will be a competitive stretch run.  But I didn't have any of this in the cards for them this year.

Mancini and Lopez were important players but I think they still have the personnel to stay in it.

[spiritof66]

9 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Punting the season?

They traded a guy who for all intents and purposes was a free agent after the season and sold high on a waiver wire player having a career year.  Yes, they didn't add to the roster.

Like or not, this is the Tampa model that people want the Orioles to follow.  There is no asset that is sacred outside of 1-2 key prospects who are willing to sign early extensions, and even then its only while they are cheap. And there is no position in the standings that locks their roster up either.  Tampa churns and churns.  There were reports they were discussing Ji Man Choi with teams a week ago.  He has the third most WAR on that team.

How do you know that Lopez is having a career year, and not starting a Josh Hader-like run as a very effective relief pitcher? True, he was a waiver acquisition; that doesn't brand him as a replacement-level "waiver wire player" for the rest of his career. The way he came to the Orioles might be relevant in that it shows how unlikely his climb to being a really effective reliever has been. I can't see how it bears on whether he can maintain that level of performance, or something close to it.

[oriolefan1035]

I have to imagine that calling up GrayRod and Gunnar would do wonders for our playoff odds and chances once there.

[Camden_yardbird]

7 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

How do you know that Lopez is having a career year, and not starting a Josh Hader-like run as a very effective relief pitcher? True, he was a waiver acquisition; that doesn't brand him as a replacement-level "waiver wire player" for the rest of his career. The way he came to the Orioles might be relevant in that it shows how unlikely his climb to being a really effective reliever has been. I can't see how it bears on whether he can maintain that level of performance, or something close to it.

First, let's put off here that Lopez is anything near Hader.  Hader was never a waiver pick up.  Hader has sustained his success that was projectable from his minor league numbers. 

I don't know that Lopez will regress, but as I said in my post, this is the Tampa model.  They sell players at their peak when replacements are available.  Hell,  they sell prospects when they are at the top of their system (see Libertore).  It's possible Lopez keeps this level of success in which case the trade was probably a loss.  But getting four players probably means you hit on 1-2.  That's how you keep a stocked farm system.  That's how you create flexibility.  Tampa acquires talent.  Period.  Regardless of need.  

As I have stated in previous posts, look at what they did this year.  The Rays traded for Isaac Paredes because the cost was low.  Paredes plays second base.  Prior to the trade Tampa had Brandon Lowe (also an OF), an all star just signed to an extension.  They also had Taylor Walls, a top 5 (in their system) prospect who can play SS, 3B, and 2B.  But that's not all, "there's more!".  They had vidal Brujan, another top 5 prospect and top 100 MLB with 50 steal speed.  Theyve also had Aranda, and Chang, and Raley.

Point is, they didn't need Paredes but they saw an opportunity. That's the Tampa system that everyone wants to emulate.

Did trading Lopez hurt the Orioles chances this year? Yes.  Does it really matter that their chance at the playoffs dropped a few percentage points? Probably not.

The Orioles were not willing to do what teams ahead of them in the standings did.  The Mariners went and got Castillo, a two year player for them.

The Blue jays went and got Merrifeld who they have for 3 years.

Were you willing to do those things for this year?  Noelvi Marte was a top 20 MLB prospect.  We're you willing to give up westburg or Henderson?

Does trading Lopez hurt the Orioles chances next year?  Maybe but maybe not, but now they armed with 4 prospects to plug those holes.

I wanted to see the Orioles prepare for competion too this year, but the time to do that was really last off season, and they operated as if they were still in rebuild mode.  It looks like that won't be the case again.  The point is, that competitiveness will come from and be maintained by many, many more moves like this, so we better get used to it.  The days of small market teams being able to keep players because they could be part of the next competitive team are over.  

[Yossarian]

I've said it before.  This year is a big step in the overall process.  This is the year the guys learn how to win.  They get confidence in their ability to win ball games.  They learn how to come back from deficits in the late innings.  They learn how to hold leads.  They learn how to hold each other accountable in doing their job.  They learn how to relish in each victory and pick each other up when they fail.  This is very important in building a winning culture.  The culture is changing in Charm City. 

[Daddy-O's]

13 hours ago, oriolefan1035 said:

I have to imagine that calling up GrayRod and Gunnar would do wonders for our playoff odds and chances once there.

Elias gave no indication that he intends to do either of these things.  

[tntoriole]

17 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

That's only part of it. To keep it simple, assume that Bautista replaces Lopez, and Kriehble replaces Bautista, with little or no decline in performance. Who replaces Kriehble? At some point, the music stops, and whoever takes the innings that would have been Lopez's is almost certain to be less effective than Lopez. If you try to redistribute those Lopez innings by having your top few bullpen guys each take on just a few more innings, you increase the risk of fatigue, leading to their ineffectiveness or even injury.

No two ways about it. Losing Lopez is a hit to the bullpen and to the 2022 Orioles. 

 

Or maybe DL Hall finishes his innings this year in that slot, smokes it and the bullpen is better