At what point do you plan on winning?

[sbf77]

I can see trading some of the veterans who are having decent years but we will need a good mix of experience with the younger talent in order to be successful in the future. Keeping some of the better veterans can also lead the younger talent. I can see trading Mora, Huff, Walker and possibly Sherrill. Of course there may not be much interest in Walker and Mora. Guthrie must stay because we can just go with an inexperienced starting staff. If we can build with a good blend of young and old, the better free agents will come.

[toonsterwu]

The problem for the Orioles is that they lack credibility. Players, at the end of the day, still want to win, and the chances of every single top player from a system succeeding is rather slim. It could happen, but it'd be the exception. Thus, the Orioles will still need to gain external talent, but to gain said external talent, they need to garner a level of credibility. So ... how do the Orioles go about this in an environment where they are the 5th wheel, with the other 4 teams all having players in their prime for the next few years, and with 3 of the teams (Yankees/Red Sox/Rays) having solid to good farm systems/young talent bases?

The reality is, 2009 and 2010 are, barring a stunner, down the drain for the Orioles. It won't be an easy rebuilding process. 2011 is probably another rebuilding year, but the Orioles have to get credibility before that. Credibility doesn't mean winning, but rather, imo, being more competitive and being viewed as a viable threat. The Orioles have a couple years to gain credibility in the hopes of buying out the arbitration years of their top youngsters.

Selling won't net you enough. Guthrie is a "1" for the Orioles, but he's more a "2/3" in general, and perhaps a "3". While he is cheap, he isn't going to net a massive return. Roberts is the only other asset that could net multiple quality pieces. After that, guys like Huff/Sherrill aren't likely to net mulitple pieces that appear to have impact, if Orioles fans are being realistic. Maybe a couple B-/C+.

I argue a path of strategic overpayment on key assets in the next two FA classes. It doesn't mean you go after the top dog (and I doubt Holliday would come here anyways). Rather, you do what the Royals did when they overpayed Gil Meche. Find a solid guy, convince them to come.

For example, I would suggest that the Orioles pursue Ben Sheets on a 2 year deal and perhaps even an Oliver Perez on a 3 year deal. The Orioles won't net folks without overpaying slightly, so the key factor in any signing are the years. Sheets at 2 years is fine ... at worst, you carry him for a year. If he's healthy and succeeds, then suddenly, you have a guy who might draw in other FA's for 2010 ... or you have a good trade asset. With the overrated Perez, you are simply hoping for a good year. Sheets/Perez might eat up what they would've given Tex, but I think it's worth it and you aren't committed long term. As Gillick always said, long term deals with pitchers are risks. Or instead of Perez, maybe you pursue a Kawakami. You might take a gamble on a Brad Penny instead of Perez or Kawakami. Control the years, make a gamble. If you can't land 2 arms, maybe instead you search for a bat, like Dunn. Control the years, though.

That isn't enough, though. The Orioles need to be more competitive now, and a couple arms won't do it. They still need to shop assets like Roberts to see what's available. Maybe you can net a 2nd baseman and another ready positional piece, along with a developmental asset (for example, maybe you can get a Brandon Allen, Chris Getz, and Dan Hudson from the White Sox, or maybe the Indians listen on a package involving Luis Valbuena and Wes Hodges). If you can get some pieces that fill holes now, while offering some upside, it's worth the gamble.

The Orioles can't succeed by going as is - the other teams in the division offer too many hurdles. They also can't succeed by simply buying or selling. It needs to be a combination that includes some strategic overpayment that brings the Orioles out of it's troubles, IMO. It also may take several years, so I'd encourage Orioles fans to be patient. It's not an easy division to rebuild in, and it takes time, particularly since the Orioles were mismanaged for so long.

[OrioleFan55]

I can see trading some of the veterans who are having decent years but we will need a good mix of experience with the younger talent in order to be successful in the future. Keeping some of the better veterans can also lead the younger talent. I can see trading Mora, Huff, Walker and possibly Sherrill. Of course there may not be much interest in Walker and Mora. Guthrie must stay because we can just go with an inexperienced starting staff. If we can build with a good blend of young and old, the better free agents will come.

Guthrie has two mediocre years on his resume. I like the guy and think he's a legit #3-#4 starter, but if someone wants this guy for a decent package I think you sell high. It's not like he's been dominating or leading a staff for 5 years, so I don't see where trading him for the price hurts a young staff. It's not losing CC or Sheets or Lackey. Guys who have dominated for 5+ years.

[Sports Guy]

We gut everything that other teams see as valuable to semi-valuable without unloading what we see as part of our core.

I'd shop Guthrie, Ray, Sherrill, Scott, Huff and Mora for sure. As long as they bring back something that AM thinks can contribute in 2 years or so, pull the trigger.

I'd also trade Roberts for the right package, but I'd play both sides and try to sign this guy to an extension. He's got another 6-7 top 10 2B seasons in him, so a package worth that or extend him.

And obviously listen to all offers on our minor leaguers who we don't deem as everyday players. Doesn't mean unload them, but see what other teams value them as and make a decision from there.

I truly think we are Wieters, Matusz, Tillman and a one or two guys who don't project now but develop into starters away along with 2-3 big free agent signings away from competing. Teixeira was one of those signings obviously.

What? He hasn't even been a top second baseman for the last 6 or 7 years and you expect him to be that good well into his 30s when, historically speaking, second baseman tend to drop off in their early 30s??

[JTrea81]

When MacPhail finally spends Angelos' money or is fired. Which ever comes first...

[Mike B]

Again, we hear so much about stockpiling pitching, and that's clearly not a stupid idea, but looking at that free agent list, the starting pitchers (barring extensions) are clearly the deepest position available next year. Lot of 28-32 year olds there that I'd love to take a chance on.

Hitters, not so much.

I look at the list at do not draw the same conclusion that you do. I see a few quality pitchers like

Josh Beckett Club Option

Erik Bedard

Rich Harden Club Option

Brandon Webb

Cliff Lee Club Option

The rest are injured and under achiever types. Combine that with PA not wanting to give any pitcher more than 4 years and I say keep drafting pitchers.

[Sports Guy]

Guthrie has two mediocre years on his resume. I like the guy and think he's a legit #3-#4 starter, but if someone wants this guy for a decent package I think you sell high. It's not like he's been dominating or leading a staff for 5 years, so I don't see where trading him for the price hurts a young staff. It's not losing CC or Sheets or Lackey. Guys who have dominated for 5+ years.

I am not the biggest Guthrie supporter but to say he has been mediocre in his first 2 years is absurd.

But I do agree with you about selling him when his value is high and that trading him isn't going to hurt us that much because, how much worse can we be?

[toonsterwu]

I look at the list at do not draw the same conclusion that you do. I see a few quality pitchers like

Josh Beckett Club Option

Erik Bedard

Rich Harden Club Option

Brandon Webb

Cliff Lee Club Option

The rest are injured and under achiever types. Combine that with PA not wanting to give any pitcher more than 4 years and I say keep drafting pitchers.

Really a side note, but I doubt Beckett or Lee reach the market. Webb, I could see Arizona shopping if they have serious financial issues. Harden/Bedard, I can see both Canadians reaching the market.

[Mike B]

When MacPhail finally spends Angelos' money or is fired. Which ever comes first...

AM is a good baseball man. Fire him and good luck finding another to come in and run this franchise. If PGA wanted to get Tex at all cost he could have told him, this is a special case, I want him, do not get out bid. AM is a good soldier and IMO would have followed through. Our payroll has been going down consistently over the last 5 years. I know every one wants to blame AM for Tex. I believe we got another typical Oriole FA effort. Make an offer, to say we are in and then fall back. That like the declining pay roll has gone on for longer than AM has been here. PGA hired AM because he is conservative and protects resources. I have no problem with this. They should have been upfront, and said we are not going all in on Tex. People would have been mad but it would have been honest and consistent. My feeling all along has been 2010 to be competitve is very optimistic. I think 2010 and 2011 is to see how many of the young guys are players and then we may see a more aggressive approach to signing players.

[brooksie05]

One of the issues we face as an organization is no matter how good we are at stockpiling minor league talent, our other division competitors A.) Have equally as talented or better minor league systems or B.) If they do not have advanced minor league systems, they have the money to buy whatever talent they want.

More than anything, the reluctance to trade has hamstrung the Orioles more than acquiring top-shelf free agents. We have to consider everyone (including Markakis) expendable is we want to turn this thing around. Additionally, Joe Jordan and the gang MUST start drafting college position talent. Finally, does anyone at the warehouse know that the Far East exists? Incentive laden contracts to all free agents know matter where they come from has to be a priority.

While losing Teixeira is a slap in the face, it shouldn't come as a surprise. He may wax proudly of his youthly love for the Orioles, but there is a generation (of which he is a part of) that equates this once-proud franchise with losing.

[Mike B]

Really a side note, but I doubt Beckett or Lee reach the market. Webb, I could see Arizona shopping if they have serious financial issues. Harden/Bedard, I can see both Canadians reaching the market.

I agree 100%. Beckett and Lee have real affordable options.

[Singleton]

When MacPhail finally spends Angelos' money or is fired. Which ever comes first...

Right. If we don't spend, we're doomed. Just look at all the money TB spent.

[ChaosLex]

AM is a good baseball man. Fire him and good luck finding another to come in and run this franchise. If PGA wanted to get Tex at all cost he could have told him, this is a special case, I want him, do not get out bid. AM is a good soldier and IMO would have followed through. Our payroll has been going down consistently over the last 5 years. I know every one wants to blame AM for Tex. I believe we got another typical Oriole FA effort. Make an offer, to say we are in and then fall back. That like the declining pay roll has gone on for longer than AM has been here. PGA hired AM because he is conservative and protects resources. I have no problem with this. They should have been upfront, and said we are not going all in on Tex. People would have been mad but it would have been honest and consistent. My feeling all along has been 2010 to be competitve is very optimistic. I think 2010 and 2011 is to see how many of the young guys are players and then we may see a more aggressive approach to signing players.

Won't be anyone worthwhile out on the market then. Especially considering most teams are locking up their young studs.

Besides, even if there were, we wouldn't pony up the dough.

[JTrea81]

Right. If we don't spend, we're doomed. Just look at all the money TB spent.

TB lost for 10 years straight before they developed their model, We have just started to go down that road.

Do you want to lose for 8 more years? I don't...

And good luck keeping Markakis, Jones and Wieters using the Twins/Rays model...

It's absolutely pathetic that the Orioles have an RSN and are acting like they are going to be the Rays or Twins...

They should dissolve MASN then because the Twins and Rays don't have RSN's either...

[33rdst]

We have two or three chips that we could realistically trade now to help bridge the gap.

I like Brob and Sherrill to the White Sox deal for Floyd, Getz, Allen

I like Scott to the Cubs for a one year stop gap starter, a future #3 and a starting left fielder.

This would not solve all of our problems we would likely have to extend Mora for a year to see what we have at Third base. I like where we could be in our rotation and in our line up.

2010.

Floyd

Guthrie

Hill

Arieta

Tillman

Ray

Hernandez

JJ

Albers

Patton

Bergensen

Penn/Liz

Getz

Mora

Markakis

Weiters

Allen

Reimhold/Pie

Jones

Snyder DH

Izturis