What does the schedule for the rest of the year suggest for the Orioles WC chances?

[2001OriolesFan]

Well lets develop a gross level expectation of what the O’s have going forward to try to get a WC game. Let’s compare the schedules of the top candidates for the 3 wild card spots: Rays, Jays, Seattle, Cleveland and the O’s. We could do this by the Vegas odds (which is distorted by their need to make money by changing the odds and controlling the betting), various “power rankings” or complicated rankings of W/L percentages. I’m keeping it simple. What is the schedule for those teams against the 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th and (to ranking teams in their ow division.

 

(As of Sunday morning), those teams future schedules looked like this for the number of games they have to play.

 

……against …....1st place…….2nd place…...3rd place…..4th place….5th place.

Rays……………….15…………..13…………….3…………..13………….10

Jays………………..8……………..3…………….16………….18…………..9

Seattle……………...3…………...11…………….9…………….12………15

Orioles……………..10…………..18…………..8……………...1………...17

Cleveland………….8…………….12…………...9…………...13…………..7

 

The O’s don’t have the easiest schedule. I think it would be worth while to break the above table up around the idea of how many games would be hard to win, versus okay or likely to win. The condensed version uses just games against 1^st and 2^nd place in the division teams to get a measure of halmerit.

 

Rays……………...28

Jays……………….11

Seattle…………….14

Orioles…………...28

Cleveland………….20

 

Right now (Monday ) the Rays are up +2,0 game, the Jays and Seattle are tie at 0 games (making the WC). The O’s and Cleveland are both 2 game behind. It looks like Seattle and Cleveland are both in a better position to get to the WC. The ones we could catch (to get top 3) would be the Jays. We have 15 game against them. (see following self-replay for the list of future games against all opponents).

 

The WC season is really very clear. Hopefully Odor can punch out a half dozen or so Jays, to help out.

 

[2001OriolesFan]

Hope there are not many errors.  Teams to be be played (dated AM 8-7-22)

Rays………….1st place teams Yankees-.9 games……...Astros..-6 games

Rays…………..2nd place teams……..Brewers.. 2 games……..Jays.. 8 games….Cleveland..3 games

Rays…………..3rd place teams……..Rangers..3 games……..

Rays…………4th place teams………..O’s – 3 games/……...KC- 4 games….

Angels-4 games….Marlins—2 games…

 

Jays………….1st place……..Twins 1 game…….Yankees 7 games……

………………2nd place……..Cleve. 3 games……

……………….3rd place……..Cubs 3 game…...Rangers 3 games……..

Rays 8 games…… Philly 2 games

………………..4^th place……….Angels 3 games……..\\

………………..5^th place……...R sox 6 games… O’s 15 GAMES

 

Seattle

…………….1st place…...Yankees 3 games

……………..2nd place…..Cleveland 6 games……Braves 3 games…...Padres 3 games

……………...3rd place…..Rangers 6 games…….white sox 3 games….

………………4^th place…..Angels 9 games…….Royals 3 games…..

………………5^th place…….Oakland 9 games…….Nats 2 games…..Tigers 7 game..

 

Orioles

…………….1st place…...Astros 7 games…...Yankees 3 games

……………..2nd place…..Jays….15 games…...Clevaland 3 games…. s

……………...3rd place…...Rays 3 games…….white sox 3 games…...

………………4^th place…. Pirates 1 game…….

………………5^th place…. Red sox 10 games…...Cubs 1 game…..Oakland 3 games….Tigers 3 games

 

 

 

[yark14]

It means we control our destiny.  Plain and simple.

[2001OriolesFan]

Yep.  Kick the sxxx out of the Jays and we will be good.

 

[fansince1988]

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remaining_schedule_strength

[Three Run Homer]

It means BAD NEWS FOR THE BLUE JAYS!!!!!!!!!  

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0074174/mediaviewer/rm4256850688/

 

[OriolesMagic83]

It's going to be hard to catch Seattle because their schedule is so weak.  Catching Blue Jays will be rough because they are 4 games up on the O's.  Best chance is to catch the Rays with all their injuries and mediocre offense.  

Regardless it's good to be playing meaningful games in August.

[Frobby]

58 minutes ago, fansince1988 said:

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remaining_schedule_strength

Yeah, this really tells you everything.  I’m worried that the AL Central teams will move up as they feast on Detroit and KC down the stretch.   And Seattle obviously has an easy go of it and a lead on us already.  Not much we can do other than focus on winning our games.  

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

Yep.  Kick the sxxx out of the Jays and we will be good.

 

Too bad JoeyBats isn’t there for Rougned to take out.

At least he would hit something. 

Edited August 8, 2022 by tntoriole

[tntoriole]

Cito sucks! 

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, fansince1988 said:

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remaining_schedule_strength

It’s funny how we’re in the toughest section of team’s remaining schedules. Better get used to it. 

[fansince1988]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, this really tells you everything.  I’m worried that the AL Central teams will move up as they feast on Detroit and KC down the stretch.   And Seattle obviously has an easy go of it and a lead on us already.  Not much we can do other than focus on winning our games.  

Great points all around. It's going to be an uphill battle, but I'll be watching and hoping. 

[emmett16]

Win and you're in.  

[seak05]

I think the big issue for the Orioles isn't necessarily going to be the Rays, but beating out the Guardians. Seattle and the Jays both have a fairly significantly easier schedule (and the Jays also have two games in hand).  While the Guardians also have an easier schedule then the Orioles 

[Frobby]

I said about a week ago that I don’t really scoreboard-watch this time of year, I more focus on what our record is.  But we’re getting closer to that time.  I believe when all the games have been played, it will take 86-90 wins to get a WC spot.  Right now we’re on pace for 84-78.   Need to step that up.   Which we’ve been doing, but need to keep doing.